St. Louis City – San Diego: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Major League Soccer · USA · Matchday 33

St. Louis CityWestern Conference · #3

0-1Saturday, October 31

San DiegoWestern Conference · #12

Match events

St. Louis CitySan Diego

39'⚽Anders DreyerAssist: Alejandro Alvarado Jr
45'⇄David VazquezOff: Bryan Zamblé
56'Alejandro Alvarado Jr
63'⇄Tomas OstrakOff: Sang-bin Jung
63'⇄Simon BecherOff: Rafael Navarro Leal
63'⇄Fallou FallOff: Daniel Edelman

Chances to win

St. Louis City%51

Draw%22

San Diego%27

At a glance

Over 1.5

%69Over 2.5

%68Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%69Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 7.Missed

Other scenarios

Both score%68

St. Louis City win%51

Not both score%32

Under 2.5%31

San Diego win%27

Draw%22

Why?

St. Louis City: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

St. Louis CityL2-3L0-3D0-0L2-3D0-0

San DiegoL1-4D2-2D2-2D3-3L1-4

Last 3 meetings

0St. Louis City won

1Draw

2San Diego won

1.7
Goals per game1/3
Over 2.51/3
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

St. Louis City · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).6/10games led at half-time.Won 5 of the 6 games it led at half-time.

San Diego · last 10 away0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).6/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).0/10games led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

St. Louis City · last 10 at home5.8 corners, 1.7 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/10Over 4.5 corners8/10Over 5.5 corners6/10

San Diego · last 10 away4.0 corners, 1.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners3/10Over 5.5 corners3/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards5/10

Bench

C. Olivares, M. Fall, F. Fall, J. Orozco, T. Ostrák, C. Brunet, S. Becher, D. Downs, Riley Lynch

San Diego · 4-3-3

13P. Sisniega

3D. Þórhallsson

5Kieran Sargeant

32I. Murphy

97C. McVey

8O. Valakari

15P. Soma

70A. Alvarado

7M. Ingvartsen

10A. Dreyer

14B. B. Zamble

Bench

C. dos Santos, O. Verhoeven, J. Tverskov, Gabriel Pirani, D. Vazquez, A. Godoy, M. Duah, A. Pellegrino

65'⇄Gabriel PiraniOff: Pedro soma

73'⇄Oscar VerhoevenOff: kieran sargeant

73'⇄Manu DuahOff: Ian Murphy

74'Lukas MacNaughton

79'⇄Riley LynchOff: Conrad Wallem

79'⇄Damion DownsOff: Lukas MacNaughton

88'⇄Jeppe TverskovOff: Anders Dreyer

Statistics

60%Possession40%

1.39Expected goals0.81

16Total shots13

7Shots on target2

3Corners4

17Fouls14

4Offsides2

2Yellow cards1

0Red cards0

1Saves6

San Diego: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 away matches.

St. Louis City scored 2.5 and conceded 1.5 per game in their last 10 home matches.

San Diego scored 1.3 and conceded 2.3 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

St. Louis City · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 7 times7/10

San Diego · last 10 away: 3+ goals 7 times7/10

St. Louis City: 10 games · San Diego: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.2Goals scored (avg)1.3

1.4Goals conceded (avg)2.2

3.6Total goals per gameleague 3.23.5

9/10Over 0.5league %9510/10

7/10Over 1.5league %837/10

6/10Over 2.5league %647/10

5/10Over 3.5league %417/10

4/10Over 4.5league %233/10

7/10Both scoreleague %647/10

2/10Clean sheets2/10

2/10Failed to score1/10

St. Louis City: 10 games · San Diego: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.9Goals scored (avg)1.7

1.3Goals conceded (avg)2.8

3.2Total goals per gameleague 3.24.5

8/10Over 0.5league %9510/10

7/10Over 1.5league %839/10

7/10Over 2.5league %649/10

4/10Over 3.5league %419/10

3/10Over 4.5league %236/10

4/10Both scoreleague %648/10

4/10Clean sheets1/10

4/10Failed to score1/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

San Diego: a 10-match wait for a win is over.

%22 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), St. Louis City win 506, 275 end level and San Diego win 219. The actual result comes up 219 times in 1000.

%27 Our model's pre-match chance of an San Diego win.

7 – 2 Shots on target: St. Louis City 7 – 2 San Diego.

2 more numbers for this match in Premium

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 3 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

St. Louis City · Major League Soccer

San Diego · Major League Soccer

St. Louis City · All games

San Diego · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Last 3 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match