The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.
%57Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓
Other scenarios
Both score%59
San Diego win%46
Under 2.5%43
Not both score%41
Houston Dynamo win%29
Draw%26
Why?
San Diego: 3+ goals in 8 of their last 10 home matches.
Last 5 matches
San DiegoL1-4D3-3D2-2L0-5L2-3
Houston DynamoD2-2L0-2D2-2L0-1W2-1
Last 3 meetings
1San Diego won
0Draw
2Houston Dynamo won
4.7 Goals per game2/3 Over 2.52/3 Both score
Handicap and HT/FT history
By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.
San Diego · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 4 games it led at half-time.
Houston Dynamo · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 4 games it led at half-time.
Corners and cards
Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.
San Diego · last 10 at home5.6 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners6/10
Referee
Sergiy Boyko4.1 cards a match in 38 recorded games
Premium members onlyLikely scores, likely scorers, corner, card and half chances.
San Diego · Major League Soccer
3W 2D 5LScored 16 · conceded 222.5 Üst 8/10KG 6/10
Houston Dynamo · Major League Soccer
3W 4D 3LScored 9 · conceded 102.5 Üst 4/10KG 4/10
San Diego · All games
3W 2D 5LScored 16 · conceded 222.5 Üst 8/10KG 6/10
Houston Dynamo · All games
3W 4D 3LScored 9 · conceded 102.5 Üst 4/10KG 4/10
Missing players
San Diego
O. Soe
This season 1 games · 1 goals · 0 assists · Lower-Body Injury
Houston Dynamo
J. Maurer
No games this season · Concussion
Felipe Andrade
This season 11 games · 0 goals · 0 assists · Injury
Starting line-ups
San Diego · 4-3-3
1C. dos Santos
3D. Þórhallsson
5Kieran Sargeant
26M. Duah
97C. McVey
6J. Tverskov
8O. Valakari
70A. Alvarado
10A. Dreyer
94C. Bakambu
Last 3 meetings
1San Diego won
0Draw
2Houston Dynamo won
4.7 Goals per game2/3 Over 2.52/3 Both score
Previous meetings
Houston Dynamo – San DiegoApril 23, 2026 · Major League Soccer1-0
Houston Dynamo – San DiegoOctober 5, 2025 · Major League Soccer2-4
San Diego – Houston DynamoJuly 6, 2025 · Major League Soccer3-4
Over 0.5 cards7/10
Over 1.5 cards5/10
Houston Dynamo · last 9 away3.8 corners, 1.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/9Over 4.5 corners4/9Over 5.5 corners2/9Over 0.5 cards8/9Over 1.5 cards4/9
San Diego: 10 games · Houston Dynamo: 10 games · league average in grey
Goals
2.0Goals scored (avg)1.3
2.0Goals conceded (avg)0.9
4.0Total goals per gameleague 3.22.2
10/10Over 0.5league %959/10
8/10Over 1.5league %836/10
8/10Over 2.5league %643/10
7/10Over 3.5league %412/10
5/10Over 4.5league %231/10
6/10Both scoreleague %644/10
3/10Clean sheets5/10
1/10Failed to score2/10
San Diego: 10 games · Houston Dynamo: 10 games · league average in grey
Goals
1.7Goals scored (avg)1.2
2.8Goals conceded (avg)1.3
4.5Total goals per gameleague 3.22.5
10/10Over 0.5league %958/10
9/10Over 1.5league %836/10
9/10Over 2.5league %645/10
9/10Over 3.5league %414/10
6/10Over 4.5league %231/10
8/10Both scoreleague %645/10
1/10Clean sheets3/10
1/10Failed to score4/10
The real story of the match
What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.
%16 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), San Diego win 727, 159 end level and Houston Dynamo win 114. The actual result comes up 159 times in 1000.
%26 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.
2.57 – 0.93 The score the chances deserved (xG): San Diego 2.57 – 0.93 Houston Dynamo.
San DiegoWestern Conference · #13
Houston DynamoWestern Conference · #4