Bournemouth – Aston Villa: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·League Cup · England · Round of 16

BournemouthPremier League · #7

3-0Wednesday, October 28

Aston VillaPremier League · #9

Match events

BournemouthAston Villa

7'⚽Amine AdliAssist: Julio Soler
12'Emiliano Buendía
16'Juanlu Sánchez
25'Ben Gannon-Doak
33'Brian Madjo
45'⇄Rayan Vitor Simplício RochaOff: Amine Adli
45'

Chances to win

Bournemouth%43

Draw%26

Aston Villa%32

At a glance

Over 1.5

%61Over 2.5

%64Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

Last 5 matches

BournemouthW3-0W3-0W2-0W3-0L1-5

Aston VillaW2-1W3-1W1-0W6-0D

Last 13 meetings

4Bournemouth won

3Draw

6Aston Villa won

2.7
Goals per game8/13
Over 2.58/13
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Bournemouth · last 10 at home5/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).7/10games led at half-time.Won 5 of the 7 games it led at half-time.

Aston Villa · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 5 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Bournemouth · last 10 at home6.9 corners, 2.6 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/10Over 4.5 corners8/10Over 5.5 corners7/10

Aston Villa · last 10 away4.8 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners3/10Over 0.5 cards8/10Over 1.5 cards7/10

Bench

Z. Suzuki, M. Cash, M. Cissé, R. Barkley, J. McGinn, B. Kamara, A. Garnacho, T. Abraham, Alysson Edward

Aston Villa – BournemouthApril 21, 2024 · Premier League3-1

Bournemouth – Aston VillaDecember 3, 2023 · Premier League2-2

Aston Villa – BournemouthMarch 18, 2023 · Premier League3-0

Bournemouth – Aston VillaAugust 6, 2022 · Premier League2-0

Bournemouth – Aston VillaFebruary 1, 2020 · Premier League2-1

Aston Villa – BournemouthAugust 17, 2019 · Premier League1-2

Aston Villa – BournemouthApril 9, 2016 · Premier League1-2

Bournemouth – Aston VillaAugust 8, 2015 · Premier League0-1

Aston Villa – BournemouthJanuary 25, 2015 · FA Cup2-1

Justin KluivertOff: Marcus Tavernier

51'⚽Lewis CookAssist: Ben Gannon-Doak

58'⇄Alejandro GarnachoOff: George Hemmings

58'⇄ Alysson Edward Franco da RochaOff: Ibrahim Mbaye

63'⇄Tyler AdamsOff: Ryan Christie

63'⇄David BrooksOff: Ben Gannon-Doak

69'⚽Álvaro RodríguezAssist: Tyler Adams

70'⇄Ross BarkleyOff: Emiliano Buendía

70'⇄John McGinnOff: Leon Goretzka

75'⇄Tammy AbrahamOff: Brian Madjo

80'⇄Eli KroupiOff: Álvaro Rodríguez

Statistics

49%Possession51%

2.75Expected goals1.67

19Total shots17

7Shots on target5

6Corners2

13Fouls15

4Offsides1

3Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

5Saves4

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%61Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%64

Bournemouth win%43

Under 2.5%39

Not both score%36

Aston Villa win%32

Draw%26

Why?

Bournemouth · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

Aston Villa · last 10 away: 3+ goals 8 times8/10

Bournemouth: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 home matches.
Aston Villa: 3+ goals in 8 of their last 10 away matches.
Bournemouth scored 2.1 and conceded 0.7 per game in their last 10 home matches.
Aston Villa scored 1.8 and conceded 1.4 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Bournemouth: 10 games · Aston Villa: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.1Goals scored (avg)1.6

0.5Goals conceded (avg)1.5

2.6Total goals per gameleague 3.13.1

10/10Over 0.5league %989/10

9/10Over 1.5league %818/10

5/10Over 2.5league %568/10

2/10Over 3.5league %384/10

0/10Over 4.5league %212/10

3/10Both scoreleague %565/10

6/10Clean sheets3/10

1/10Failed to score3/10

Bournemouth: 10 games · Aston Villa: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.1Goals scored (avg)2.2

0.9Goals conceded (avg)1.3

3.0Total goals per gameleague 3.13.5

10/10Over 0.5league %9810/10

9/10Over 1.5league %819/10

7/10Over 2.5league %568/10

2/10Over 3.5league %385/10

1/10Over 4.5league %212/10

3/10Both scoreleague %567/10

6/10Clean sheets2/10

1/10Failed to score1/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

Aston Villa: a 7-match unbeaten run ended here.

Bournemouth: win number 5 in a row.

2.75 – 1.67 The score the chances deserved (xG): Bournemouth 2.75 – 1.67 Aston Villa.

%61 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Bournemouth win 605, 174 end level and Aston Villa win 221. The actual result comes up 605 times in 1000.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
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When they score
When they concede

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Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

Last 5 matches

Last 13 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Bournemouth · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Bournemouth's ground

Last 13 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Aston Villa · All games

Statistics

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match