The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.
%63Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓
Other scenarios
Both score%62
Manchester City win%56
Not both score%38
Under 2.5%37
Draw%22
Aston Villa win%21
Why?
Aston Villa: 3+ goals in 9 of their last 10 home matches.
Last 5 matches
Aston VillaW3-1W1-0W6-0D2-2W3-2
Manchester CityW5-1W3-2L2-4W3-0W5-3
Last 15 meetings
4Aston Villa won
1Draw
10Manchester City won
3.2 Goals per game11/15 Over 2.511/15 Both score
Handicap and HT/FT history
By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.
Aston Villa · last 10 at home5/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).6/10games led at half-time.Won 6 of the 6 games it led at half-time.
Manchester City · last 10 away4/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 3 games it led at half-time.
Corners and cards
Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.
Aston Villa · last 10 at home5.0 corners, 1.3 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners
Referee
Peter Bankes5.0 cards a match in 6 recorded games
Premium members onlyLikely scores, likely scorers, corner, card and half chances.
Aston Villa · Premier League
4W 3D 3LScored 15 · conceded 162.5 Üst 7/10KG 6/10
Manchester City · Premier League
8W 1D 1LScored 24 · conceded 102.5 Üst 7/10KG 6/10
Aston Villa · All games
6W 2D 2LScored 22 · conceded 112.5 Üst 7/10KG 6/10
Manchester City · All games
9W 0D 1LScored 31 · conceded 112.5 Üst 7/10KG 5/10
Missing players
Aston Villa
A. Wan-Bissaka
This season 9 games · 0 goals · 0 assists · Muscle Injury
M. Ruggeri
This season 5 games · 0 goals · 0 assists · Muscle Injury
A. Onana
No games this season · Knee Injury
M. Cisse
No games this season · Hip Injury
Manchester City
A. Semenyo
This season 10 games · 2 goals · 3 assists · Knee Injury
M. Nunes
This season 8 games · 0 goals · 0 assists · Knock
Starting line-ups
Aston Villa · 4-2-3-1
1Z. Suzuki
2M. Cash
3V. Lindelöf
14Pau Torres
22I. Maatsen
7J. McGinn
8B. Kamara
This fixture at Aston Villa's ground
The meetings the home side hosted, of the last 8
3Aston Villa won
1Draw
4Manchester City won
Aston Villa last won here on Oct 26, 2025: Aston Villa 1-0 Manchester City.Manchester City last won here on Dec 1, 2021: Aston Villa 1-2 Manchester City.2.9 goals a game here · over 2.5 5/8 · BTTS 6/8
Last 15 meetings
4Aston Villa won
1Draw
10Manchester City won
3.2 Goals per game11/15 Over 2.511/15 Both score
Previous meetings
Manchester City – Aston VillaMay 24, 2026 · Premier League1-2
Aston Villa – Manchester CityOctober 26, 2025 · Premier League1-0
Manchester City – Aston VillaApril 22, 2025 · Premier League2-1
Aston Villa – Manchester CityDecember 21, 2024 · Premier League
4/10
Over 0.5 cards6/10
Over 1.5 cards5/10
Manchester City · last 10 away7.0 corners, 1.7 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners10/10Over 4.5 corners8/10Over 5.5 corners7/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards6/10
Aston Villa · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 9 times9/10
Manchester City · last 10 away: 3+ goals 5 times5/10
Aston Villa: 10 games · Manchester City: 10 games · league average in grey
Goals
2.7Goals scored (avg)1.7
1.4Goals conceded (avg)1.0
4.1Total goals per gameleague 2.82.7
10/10Over 0.5league %9310/10
9/10Over 1.5league %767/10
9/10Over 2.5league %505/10
6/10Over 3.5league %312/10
3/10Over 4.5league %182/10
7/10Both scoreleague %504/10
2/10Clean sheets5/10
1/10Failed to score1/10
Aston Villa: 10 games · Manchester City: 10 games · league average in grey
Goals
2.4Goals scored (avg)2.9
1.4Goals conceded (avg)1.4
3.8Total goals per gameleague 2.84.3
10/10Over 0.5league %9310/10
9/10Over 1.5league %769/10
9/10Over 2.5league %508/10
6/10Over 3.5league %316/10
3/10Over 4.5league %185/10
7/10Both scoreleague %506/10
2/10Clean sheets4/10
1/10Failed to score0/10
The real story of the match
What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.
%13 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Aston Villa win 125, 219 end level and Manchester City win 655. The actual result comes up 125 times in 1000.
%21 Our model's pre-match chance of a Aston Villa win.
0.64 – 1.81 The score the chances deserved (xG): Aston Villa 0.64 – 1.81 Manchester City.
2 – 7 Shots on target: Aston Villa 2 – 7 Manchester City.
Aston VillaPremier League · #9
Manchester CityPremier League · #1