Manchester City – Paris Saint Germain: probabilities, statistics and live score

Manchester CityPremier League · #1

2-4Wednesday, October 14

Paris Saint GermainLigue 1 · #1

Match events

Manchester CityParis Saint Germain

13'⚽Désiré DoueAssist: Fabián Ruiz
15'⚽Ousmane DembéléAssist: Désiré Doue
32'⚽VitinhaAssist: Warren Zaire-Emery
45'⇄Iliman NdiayeOff: Jeremy Doku
45'⇄Matheus NunesOff: Rúben Dias
45'⇄Ayyoub BouaddiOff: Rayan Cherki

Chances to win

Manchester City%49

Draw%23

Paris Saint Germain%28

At a glance

Over 1.5

%68Over 2.5

%67Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

Last 5 matches

Manchester CityW3-0W5-3W5-0W1-0W2-0

Paris Saint GermainW3-1W2-1W1-0W6-1L

Last 1 meetings

0Manchester City won

0Draw

1Paris Saint Germain won

6.0
Goals per game1/1
Over 2.51/1
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Manchester City · last 10 at home5/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).6/10games led at half-time.Won 5 of the 6 games it led at half-time.

Paris Saint Germain · last 10 away3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Manchester City · last 10 at home7.0 corners, 1.2 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners9/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners7/10

Paris Saint Germain · 4-3-3

39M. Safonov

2A. Hakimi

5Marquinhos

25Nuno Mendes

51W. Pacho

8Fabián Ruiz

17Vitinha

33W. Zaïre-Emery

10O. Dembélé

11M. Akliouche

14D. Doué

Bench

L. Chevalier, Beraldo, I. Zabarnyi, L. Digne, L. Hernández, Pedro Fernández, João Neves, K. Kvaratskhelia, Ferran Torres, M. Godts, Quentin Ndjantou Mbitcha

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%68Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 7.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%67

Manchester City win%49

Not both score%33

Under 2.5%32

Paris Saint Germain win%28

Draw%23

Why?

Manchester City · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 9 times9/10

Paris Saint Germain · last 10 away: 3+ goals 5 times5/10

Manchester City: 3+ goals in 9 of their last 10 home matches.
Paris Saint Germain: 3+ goals in 5 of their last 10 away matches.
Manchester City scored 2.8 and conceded 0.8 per game in their last 10 home matches.
Paris Saint Germain scored 1.6 and conceded 0.9 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Manchester City: 10 games · Paris Saint Germain: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.6Goals scored (avg)2.2

1.6Goals conceded (avg)1.2

4.2Total goals per gameleague 3.33.4

10/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

8/10Over 1.5league %838/10

8/10Over 2.5league %607/10

6/10Over 3.5league %425/10

5/10Over 4.5league %262/10

7/10Both scoreleague %577/10

2/10Clean sheets2/10

1/10Failed to score1/10

Manchester City: 10 games · Paris Saint Germain: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.7Goals scored (avg)3.1

1.5Goals conceded (avg)1.1

4.2Total goals per gameleague 3.34.2

10/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

8/10Over 1.5league %839/10

8/10Over 2.5league %608/10

6/10Over 3.5league %426/10

5/10Over 4.5league %264/10

6/10Both scoreleague %578/10

3/10Clean sheets2/10

1/10Failed to score0/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

Manchester City: a 7-match unbeaten run ended here.

%27 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Manchester City win 545, 184 end level and Paris Saint Germain win 271. The actual result comes up 271 times in 1000.

2.61 – 1.85 The score the chances deserved (xG): Manchester City 2.61 – 1.85 Paris Saint Germain.

Paris Saint Germain: win number 5 in a row.

3 more numbers for this match in Premium

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

Last 5 matches

Last 1 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Last 1 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Manchester City · UEFA Champions League

Paris Saint Germain · UEFA Champions League

Manchester City · All games

Paris Saint Germain · All games

Statistics

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match