Newcastle – Aston Villa: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Premier League · England · Matchday 7

NewcastlePremier League · #8

0-1Saturday, October 17

Aston VillaPremier League · #9

Match events

NewcastleAston Villa

18'Joelinton
18'Sven Botman
25'João Gomes
28' Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha
36'⚽Johan ManzambiAssist: João Gomes
45'⇄John McGinnOff: Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha
53'

Chances to win

Newcastle%42

Draw%26

Aston Villa%33

At a glance

Over 1.5

%60Over 2.5

%63Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%60Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Missed

Other scenarios

Both score%63

Newcastle win%42

Under 2.5%40

Not both score%37

Aston Villa win%33

Draw%26

Why?

Newcastle: 3+ goals in 9 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

NewcastleL1-4W2-1L1-4W1-0D2-2

Aston VillaW6-0D2-2W3-2W3-1L1-2

Last 9 meetings

5Newcastle won

1Draw

3Aston Villa won

3.4
Goals per game7/9
Over 2.54/9
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Newcastle · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Aston Villa · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Newcastle · last 10 at home5.0 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners4/10Over 5.5 corners

Aston Villa · last 10 away5.0 corners, 2.0 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners4/10Over 0.5 cards8/10Over 1.5 cards6/10

20M. Fernandez-Pardo

Bench

N. Pope, F. Schär, D. Burn, A. Dedić, A. Bamba, Sean Steur, J. Murphy, W. Osula, B. Touré

Aston Villa · 4-2-3-1

1Z. Suzuki

2M. Cash

3V. Lindelöf

5T. Mings

29A. Wan-Bissaka

8B. Kamara

10E. Buendía

35João Gomes

44J. Manzambi

47Alysson Edward

11N. Jackson

Bench

M. Bizot, T. Harwood-Bellis, Pau Torres, R. Barkley, J. McGinn, L. Bogarde, L. Goretzka, I. Mbaye, Brian Madjo

Newcastle – Aston VillaDecember 26, 2024 · Premier League3-0

Aston Villa – NewcastleJanuary 30, 2024 · Premier League1-3

Newcastle – Aston VillaAugust 12, 2023 · Premier League5-1

Aston Villa – NewcastleApril 15, 2023 · Premier League3-0

Newcastle – Aston VillaOctober 29, 2022 · Premier League4-0

56'⇄Bazoumana TouréOff: Matias Fernandez-Pardo

56'⇄William OsulaOff: Joe Willock

72'⇄Leon GoretzkaOff: Emiliano Buendía

72'⇄Ibrahim MbayeOff: Johan Manzambi

72'⇄Ross BarkleyOff: João Gomes

77'⇄Pau TorresOff: Aaron Wan-Bissaka

90'⇄Dan BurnOff: Joelinton

Statistics

49%Possession51%

1.14Expected goals1.56

16Total shots15

1Shots on target3

4Corners5

14Fouls11

5Offsides0

6Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

2Saves1

Aston Villa: 3+ goals in 8 of their last 10 away matches.

Newcastle scored 1.9 and conceded 1.7 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Aston Villa scored 1.7 and conceded 1.5 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Newcastle · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 9 times9/10

Aston Villa · last 10 away: 3+ goals 8 times8/10

Newcastle: 10 games · Aston Villa: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.8Goals scored (avg)1.6

1.5Goals conceded (avg)1.5

3.3Total goals per gameleague 2.83.1

10/10Over 0.5league %939/10

9/10Over 1.5league %768/10

8/10Over 2.5league %508/10

5/10Over 3.5league %314/10

1/10Over 4.5league %182/10

9/10Both scoreleague %505/10

0/10Clean sheets3/10

1/10Failed to score3/10

Newcastle: 10 games · Aston Villa: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.5Goals scored (avg)2.2

1.7Goals conceded (avg)1.3

3.2Total goals per gameleague 2.83.5

10/10Over 0.5league %9310/10

8/10Over 1.5league %769/10

6/10Over 2.5league %508/10

5/10Over 3.5league %315/10

3/10Over 4.5league %182/10

6/10Both scoreleague %507/10

3/10Clean sheets2/10

1/10Failed to score1/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%47 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Newcastle win 278, 252 end level and Aston Villa win 470. The actual result comes up 470 times in 1000.

%33 Our model's pre-match chance of an Aston Villa win.

1.14 – 1.56 The score the chances deserved (xG): Newcastle 1.14 – 1.56 Aston Villa.

8.2

Man of the match: J. Manzambi (Aston Villa), rated 8.2.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 9 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Newcastle · Premier League

Aston Villa · Premier League

Newcastle · All games

Aston Villa · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Newcastle's ground

Last 9 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match