Real Madrid – RB Leipzig: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·UEFA Champions League · League phase · Matchday 3

Real MadridPrimera División · #3

4-1Wednesday, October 21

RB LeipzigBundesliga · #6

Match events

Real MadridRB Leipzig

43'⚽Bernardo Silva
52'⚽Arda GülerAssist: Kylian Mbappé
63'⇄Rocco ReitzOff: Neil El Aynaoui
63'⇄Andrija MaksimovićOff: Brajan Gruda
68'Álvaro Fernández Carreras
70'Rocco Reitz
70'

Chances to win

Real Madrid%76

Draw%14

RB Leipzig%10

At a glance

Over 1.5

%79Over 2.5

%64Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%79Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 8.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Real Madrid win%76

Both score%64

Not both score%36

Under 2.5%21

Draw%14

RB Leipzig win%10

Why?

Real Madrid: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

Real MadridW4-1W4-3W1-0L1-2W3-2

RB LeipzigL1-6W1-0W6-0L0-2W5-0

Last 4 meetings

2Real Madrid won

1Draw

1RB Leipzig won

2.5
Goals per game1/4
Over 2.52/4
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Real Madrid · last 10 at home6/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).7/10games led at half-time.Won 7 of the 7 games it led at half-time.

RB Leipzig · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).4/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Real Madrid · last 10 at home6.3 corners, 1.7 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners

RB Leipzig · last 10 away4.9 corners, 1.5 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners5/10Over 0.5 cards8/10Over 1.5 cards4/10

Bench

A. Lunin, Éder Militão, T. Alexander-Arnold, I. Konaté, Marc Cucurella, D. Dumfries, A. Tchouaméni, Brahim Díaz, Thiago Pitarch, Endrick, Carlos Espí, Y. Diomande

RB Leipzig · 4-2-3-1

26M. Vandevoordt

4W. Orbán

17R. Baku

22D. Raum

23C. Lukeba

7A. Nusa

10B. Gruda

13N. Seiwald

21N. El Aynaoui

28C. Nkunku

40Rômulo

Bench

Ø. Nyland, A. Koné, M. Estève, L. Klostermann, Max Finkgräfe, B. Henrichs, E. Banzuzi, C. Baumgartner, R. Reitz, A. MaksimoviÄ, J. Bakayoko, T. Gomis

Yan DiomandeOff: Vinícius

70'⇄Marc CucurellaOff: Álvaro Fernández Carreras

73'⇄Max FinkgräfeOff: David Raum

73'⇄Tidiam GomisOff: Antonio Nusa

78'⇄Christoph BaumgartnerOff: Christopher Nkunku

78'⇄Brahim DíazOff: Arda Güler

83'⚽Kylian MbappéAssist: Yan Diomande

85'⚽Tidiam GomisAssist: Christoph Baumgartner

87'⚽Yan DiomandeAssist: Brahim Díaz

88'⇄Carlos EspíOff: Kylian Mbappé

88'⇄Endrick Felipe Moreira de SousaOff: Jude Bellingham

Statistics

65%Possession35%

3.13Expected goals1.51

18Total shots11

11Shots on target6

7Corners1

13Fouls12

3Offsides2

1Yellow cards1

0Red cards0

5Saves6

RB Leipzig: 3+ goals in 8 of their last 10 away matches.

Real Madrid scored 2.8 and conceded 0.8 per game in their last 10 home matches.

RB Leipzig scored 1.6 and conceded 2.6 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Real Madrid · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 7 times7/10

RB Leipzig · last 10 away: 3+ goals 8 times8/10

Real Madrid: 10 games · RB Leipzig: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

3.1Goals scored (avg)1.7

0.8Goals conceded (avg)2.9

3.9Total goals per gameleague 3.34.6

10/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

9/10Over 1.5league %8310/10

8/10Over 2.5league %609/10

6/10Over 3.5league %428/10

5/10Over 4.5league %266/10

7/10Both scoreleague %578/10

3/10Clean sheets1/10

0/10Failed to score1/10

Real Madrid: 10 games · RB Leipzig: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.5Goals scored (avg)2.2

1.3Goals conceded (avg)2.0

3.8Total goals per gameleague 3.34.2

10/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

8/10Over 1.5league %839/10

8/10Over 2.5league %608/10

5/10Over 3.5league %427/10

5/10Over 4.5league %265/10

8/10Both scoreleague %575/10

1/10Clean sheets4/10

1/10Failed to score1/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

Real Madrid: win number 4 in a row.

%68 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Real Madrid win 679, 157 end level and RB Leipzig win 165. The actual result comes up 679 times in 1000.

2.95 – 1.46 The score the chances deserved (xG): Real Madrid 2.95 – 1.46 RB Leipzig.

7 – 1 Corners: Real Madrid 7 – 1 RB Leipzig.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 4 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League

RB Leipzig · UEFA Champions League

Real Madrid · All games

RB Leipzig · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Real Madrid's ground

Last 4 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match