RB Leipzig – PSV Eindhoven: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·UEFA Champions League · League phase · Matchday 2

RB LeipzigBundesliga · #6

1-0Tuesday, October 13

PSV EindhovenEredivisie · #3

Match events

RB LeipzigPSV Eindhoven

16'VARRuben van BommelPenalty confirmed
19'✕Ivan PerišićMissed penalty
43'Sergiño Dest
61'⇄Tidiam GomisOff: Rômulo José Cardoso da Cruz
75'⚽Brajan Gruda
76'⇄Rocco ReitzOff: Brajan Gruda

Chances to win

RB Leipzig%58

Draw%20

PSV Eindhoven%22

At a glance

Over 1.5

%74Over 2.5

%70Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%74Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 7.Missed

Other scenarios

Both score%70

RB Leipzig win%58

Not both score%30

Under 2.5%26

PSV Eindhoven win%22

Draw%20

Why?

RB Leipzig: 3+ goals in 9 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

RB LeipzigW6-0L0-2W5-0L1-4L1-3

PSV EindhovenW2-0L2-3W4-1D1-1W3-1

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

RB Leipzig · last 10 at home5/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).7/10games led at half-time.Won 6 of the 7 games it led at half-time.

PSV Eindhoven · last 10 away5/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).7/10games led at half-time.Won 6 of the 7 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

RB Leipzig · last 10 at home6.0 corners, 1.5 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners7/10

PSV Eindhoven · last 10 away6.2 corners, 2.2 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners9/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners4/10Over 0.5 cards8/10Over 1.5 cards6/10

RB Leipzig · 4-2-3-1

26M. Vandevoordt

4W. Orbán

17R. Baku

22D. Raum

23C. Lukeba

6E. Banzuzi

7A. Nusa

10B. Gruda

21N. El Aynaoui

28C. Nkunku

40Rômulo

Bench

Ø. Nyland, A. Koné, M. Estève, L. Klostermann, Max Finkgräfe, B. Henrichs, N. Seiwald, R. Reitz, A. MaksimoviÄ, J. Bakayoko, T. Gomis

PSV Eindhoven · 4-2-3-1

32M. Kovář

2L. Geertruida

4A. Obispo

8S. Dest

18F. Kostić

5I. Perišić

7R. van Bommel

17Mauro Júnior

20G. Til

24K. Sano

21S. Mijnans

Bench

N. Olij, T. Smolenaars, Yarek Gasiorowski, R. Flamingo, N. Fernandez, A. Santos, S. Cornecion, E. Bajraktarevic, M. Hansen, D. Man, A. Bouhamdi

Ryan FlamingoOff: Lutsharel Geertruida

77'⇄Yarek GasiorowskiOff: Filip Kostić

81'VARDavid RaumOriginal decision changed

84'⇄Ayoni SantosOff: Ruben van Bommel

84'⇄Mikkel Bro HansenOff: Sven Mijnans

86'⇄Nicolas SeiwaldOff: Ridle Baku

86'⇄Lukas KlostermannOff: Ezechiel Banzuzi

Statistics

43%Possession57%

2.19Expected goals1.46

19Total shots11

6Shots on target5

5Corners12

13Fouls12

0Offsides5

1Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

5Saves6

PSV Eindhoven: 3+ goals in 9 of their last 10 away matches.

RB Leipzig scored 3.1 and conceded 0.7 per game in their last 10 home matches.

PSV Eindhoven scored 2.7 and conceded 1.6 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

RB Leipzig · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 9 times9/10

PSV Eindhoven · last 10 away: 3+ goals 9 times9/10

RB Leipzig: 10 games · PSV Eindhoven: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

3.2Goals scored (avg)2.3

0.3Goals conceded (avg)1.2

3.5Total goals per gameleague 3.33.5

10/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

8/10Over 1.5league %838/10

8/10Over 2.5league %607/10

5/10Over 3.5league %425/10

3/10Over 4.5league %263/10

3/10Both scoreleague %577/10

7/10Clean sheets2/10

0/10Failed to score1/10

RB Leipzig: 10 games · PSV Eindhoven: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.2Goals scored (avg)2.1

2.0Goals conceded (avg)1.1

4.2Total goals per gameleague 3.33.2

10/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

9/10Over 1.5league %838/10

8/10Over 2.5league %605/10

7/10Over 3.5league %424/10

5/10Over 4.5league %263/10

5/10Both scoreleague %577/10

4/10Clean sheets2/10

1/10Failed to score1/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

5 – 12 Corners: RB Leipzig 5 – 12 PSV Eindhoven.

%54 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), RB Leipzig win 542, 205 end level and PSV Eindhoven win 254. The actual result comes up 542 times in 1000.

2.19 – 1.46 The score the chances deserved (xG): RB Leipzig 2.19 – 1.46 PSV Eindhoven.

8.9

Man of the match: M. Vandevoordt (RB Leipzig), rated 8.9.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

RB Leipzig · UEFA Champions League

PSV Eindhoven · UEFA Champions League

RB Leipzig · All games

PSV Eindhoven · All games

Missing players

Previous meetings

Model chances

Starting line-ups

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match