Catanzaro – Padova: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Serie B · Italy · Matchday 10

CatanzaroSerie B · #20

1-1Saturday, October 31

PadovaSerie B · #7

Match events

CatanzaroPadova

15'Antonio Candela
27'Giovanni·Giunti
27'⚽Mehdi Dorval
45'⇄Emanuele ZuelliOff: Giovanni·Giunti
45'⇄Marco PompettiOff: Pietro Fusi
52'Alessandro Dellavalle
56'

Chances to win

Catanzaro%43

Draw%27

Padova%30

At a glance

Over 1.5

%54Over 2.5

%58Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%58Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%54

Under 2.5%46

Catanzaro win%43

Not both score%42

Padova win%30

Draw%27

Why?

Catanzaro: both sides scored in 6 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

CatanzaroD1-1L1-6D2-2L1-3L1-2

PadovaW2-0W1-0L1-2L0-2L1-2

Last 6 meetings

1Catanzaro won

2Draw

3Padova won

1.8
Goals per game2/6
Over 2.53/6
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Catanzaro · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Padova · last 10 away0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Catanzaro · last 10 at home5.1 corners, 1.4 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/10Over 4.5 corners8/10Over 5.5 corners4/10

Padova · last 10 away4.5 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners3/10Over 0.5 cards8/10Over 1.5 cards8/10

27Alessandro Dellavalle

Bench

L. Mouquet, E. Silletti, M. Cocchi, C. Pastina, C. Faedo, M. Pompetti, E. Zuelli, F. Di Mariano, N. Galazzi, D. Marcolini, A. Seghetti, M. Bortolussi

Catanzaro – PadovaJanuary 19, 2022 · Coppa Italia Serie C0-1

Padova – CatanzaroDecember 15, 2021 · Coppa Italia Serie C1-1

Matteo CocchiOff: Filippo Sgarbi

65'⇄Marco RuggeroOff: Antonio Candela

66'⚽Kevin VarasAssist: Alessandro Capelli

76'⇄Nicola MostiOff: Jacopo Petriccione

76'⇄Marco D'AlessandroOff: Ruggero Frosinini

79'⇄Nicolo BusoOff: N'Dri Koffi

79'⇄G. ArditiOff: Pietro Lemmello

81'⇄Mattia BortolussiOff: Gabriele Artistico

Statistics

57%Possession43%

1.85Expected goals0.39

25Total shots5

5Shots on target1

11Corners2

13Fouls8

0Offsides2

2Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

0Saves3

Padova: both sides scored in 4 of their last 10 away matches.

Catanzaro scored 1.9 and conceded 2.0 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Padova scored 0.9 and conceded 1.6 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Catanzaro · last 10 at home: both scored 6 times6/10

Catanzaro: 10 games · Padova: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.8Goals scored (avg)1.0

1.9Goals conceded (avg)1.6

3.7Total goals per gameleague 2.72.6

10/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

9/10Over 1.5league %816/10

7/10Over 2.5league %504/10

5/10Over 3.5league %233/10

3/10Over 4.5league %111/10

6/10Both scoreleague %615/10

3/10Clean sheets2/10

1/10Failed to score3/10

Catanzaro: 10 games · Padova: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.1Goals scored (avg)1.0

2.2Goals conceded (avg)1.1

3.3Total goals per gameleague 2.72.1

10/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

9/10Over 1.5league %817/10

6/10Over 2.5league %503/10

4/10Over 3.5league %231/10

2/10Over 4.5league %110/10

8/10Both scoreleague %615/10

1/10Clean sheets4/10

1/10Failed to score1/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%20 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Catanzaro win 732, 198 end level and Padova win 70. The actual result comes up 198 times in 1000.

%27 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

1.85 – 0.39 The score the chances deserved (xG): Catanzaro 1.85 – 0.39 Padova.

25 – 5 Shots: Catanzaro 25 – 5 Padova.

2 more numbers for this match in Premium

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 6 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Catanzaro · Serie B

Padova · Serie B

Catanzaro · All games

Padova · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Catanzaro's ground

Last 6 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match