Catanzaro – Ascoli: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Serie B · Italy · Matchday 8

CatanzaroSerie B · #20

1-6Saturday, October 24

AscoliSerie B · #3

Match events

CatanzaroAscoli

18'⚽N'Dri KoffiAssist: Federico Di Francesco
21'⚽Gabriele GoriAssist: Andrea·Silipo
32'⚽Gennao AcamporaAssist: Simone D'Uffizi
36'⚽Federico GattoniAssist: Andrea Oliveri
39'Federico Gattoni
45'⇄Tommaso MilaneseOff: Gennao Acampora

Chances to win

Catanzaro%39

Draw%28

Ascoli%33

At a glance

Over 1.5

%54Over 2.5

%59Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%59Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%54

Under 2.5%46

Not both score%41

Catanzaro win%39

Ascoli win%33

Draw%28

Why?

Catanzaro: both sides scored in 6 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

CatanzaroD2-2L1-3L1-2W1-0L0-2

AscoliD1-1D0-0W3-1L0-1W1-0

Last 2 meetings

1Catanzaro won

0Draw

1Ascoli won

3.0
Goals per game1/2
Over 2.51/2
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Catanzaro · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Ascoli · last 10 away3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Catanzaro · last 10 at home4.7 corners, 1.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners

Ascoli · last 4 away4.8 corners, 1.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners3/4Over 4.5 corners2/4Over 5.5 corners1/4Over 0.5 cards4/4Over 1.5 cards2/4

Bench

G. Crespi, M. Nicoletti, L. Venuti, M. Curado, S. Perciun, L. Lo Scalzo, G. De Pieri, M. Ricci, T. Milanese, A. Chakir, D. Bolsius

Marco D'AlessandroOff: N'Dri Koffi

45+1'⚽Giovanni CorradiniAssist: Gabriele Gori

53'⚽Tommaso Milanese

56'⇄Niccolò PostiglioneOff: Marco Ruggero

56'⇄Nicolo BusoOff: Federico Di Francesco

56'⇄Nicola MostiOff: Simone Pafundi

60'⇄Sergiu PerciunOff: Giovanni Corradini

60'⇄Matteo RicciOff: Samuele Damiani

60'⇄Giacomo De PieriOff: Andrea·Silipo

72'⇄Lorenzo VenutiOff: Andrea Oliveri

76'⚽Gabriele GoriAssist: Sergiu Perciun

78'⇄Gabriele AlesiOff: Franky Tchaouna

Statistics

42%Possession58%

1.66Expected goals4.23

17Total shots24

8Shots on target10

5Corners9

14Fouls10

1Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

4Saves7

Ascoli: both sides scored in 5 of their last 10 away matches.

Catanzaro scored 1.9 and conceded 1.5 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Ascoli scored 1.5 and conceded 1.0 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Catanzaro · last 10 at home: both scored 6 times6/10

Ascoli · last 10 away: both scored 5 times5/10

Catanzaro: 10 games · Ascoli: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.9Goals scored (avg)1.8

2.0Goals conceded (avg)1.0

3.9Total goals per gameleague 2.72.8

10/10Over 0.5league %979/10

9/10Over 1.5league %806/10

8/10Over 2.5league %526/10

6/10Over 3.5league %243/10

3/10Over 4.5league %112/10

6/10Both scoreleague %615/10

3/10Clean sheets3/10

1/10Failed to score3/10

Catanzaro: 10 games · Ascoli: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.2Goals scored (avg)1.7

2.3Goals conceded (avg)1.0

3.5Total goals per gameleague 2.72.7

10/10Over 0.5league %979/10

9/10Over 1.5league %807/10

7/10Over 2.5league %524/10

5/10Over 3.5league %243/10

2/10Over 4.5league %112/10

8/10Both scoreleague %616/10

1/10Clean sheets3/10

1/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

1.83 – 3.82 The score the chances deserved (xG): Catanzaro 1.83 – 3.82 Ascoli.

%33 Our model's pre-match chance of an Ascoli win.

%74 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Catanzaro win 141, 124 end level and Ascoli win 735. The actual result comes up 735 times in 1000.

9.7

Man of the match: G. Gori (Ascoli), rated 9.7.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 2 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Catanzaro · Serie B

Ascoli · Serie B

Catanzaro · All games

Ascoli · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Last 2 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match