Ascoli – Empoli: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Serie B · Italy · Matchday 7

AscoliSerie B · #3

1-1Saturday, October 17

EmpoliSerie B · #18

Match events

AscoliEmpoli

14'⚽Joseph Ceesay
26'⚽Nicholas RizzoAssist: Matteo Brunori
45'⇄Filippo BandinelliOff: Edoardo Biondini
54'⇄Lapo DeliOff: Gerard Yepes
62'⇄Don BolsiusOff: Gennao Acampora
62'⇄amine chakirOff: Matteo Brunori

Chances to win

Ascoli%50

Draw%27

Empoli%23

At a glance

Over 1.5

%51Over 2.5

%54Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%51Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 5.Missed

Other scenarios

Both score%54

Ascoli win%50

Under 2.5%49

Not both score%46

Draw%27

Empoli win%23

Why?

Ascoli: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

AscoliD0-0W3-1L0-1W1-0D1-1

EmpoliL2-4L1-2L0-1W1-0L1-3

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Ascoli · last 10 at home5/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Empoli · last 10 away0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 0 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Ascoli · last 3 at home7.3 corners, 2.7 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners3/3Over 4.5 corners3/3Over 5.5 corners2/3Over 0.5 cards3/3Over 1.5 cards3/3

Empoli · last 10 away3.9 corners, 2.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners

Over 4.5 corners3/10

Over 5.5 corners3/10

Bench

S. Perisan, E. Filippis, G. Indragoli, M. Egan, D. Bembnista, D. Degli Innocenti, F. Bandinelli, L. Deli, L. Belardinelli, S. Shpendi, F. Meznar

Giacomo De PieriOff: Andrea·Silipo

63'⇄Tommaso MilaneseOff: Andrea Oliveri

63'⇄Steven ShpendiOff: Bogdan Popov

71'⇄Federico GattoniOff: Marcos Curado

84'⇄Matteo EganOff: Joseph Ceesay

84'⇄Luca BelardinelliOff: Edoardo Saporiti

Statistics

62%Possession38%

1.59Expected goals0.81

9Total shots16

2Shots on target2

6Corners8

11Fouls17

2Offsides1

1Yellow cards1

0Red cards0

1Saves1

Empoli: 3+ goals in 4 of their last 10 away matches.

Ascoli scored 2.1 and conceded 0.7 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Empoli scored 0.9 and conceded 1.6 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Ascoli · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

Ascoli: 10 games · Empoli: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.9Goals scored (avg)0.8

0.5Goals conceded (avg)1.5

2.4Total goals per gameleague 2.72.3

10/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

8/10Over 1.5league %807/10

4/10Over 2.5league %524/10

2/10Over 3.5league %242/10

0/10Over 4.5league %110/10

5/10Both scoreleague %616/10

5/10Clean sheets1/10

0/10Failed to score3/10

Ascoli: 10 games · Empoli: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.7Goals scored (avg)0.9

1.0Goals conceded (avg)1.6

2.7Total goals per gameleague 2.72.5

9/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

7/10Over 1.5league %807/10

4/10Over 2.5league %524/10

3/10Over 3.5league %242/10

2/10Over 4.5league %111/10

6/10Both scoreleague %616/10

3/10Clean sheets2/10

2/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%25 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Ascoli win 559, 251 end level and Empoli win 190. The actual result comes up 251 times in 1000.

%27 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

1.59 – 0.81 The score the chances deserved (xG): Ascoli 1.59 – 0.81 Empoli.

7.7

Man of the match: J. Ceesay (Empoli), rated 7.7.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Ascoli · Serie B

Empoli · Serie B

Ascoli · All games

Empoli · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match