Sudtirol – Ascoli: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Serie B · Italy · Matchday 6

SudtirolSerie B · #8

0-0Saturday, October 10

AscoliSerie B · #3

Match events

SudtirolAscoli

37'Salvatore Molina
45'⇄Kenny Meddy MixturOff: Alvin Okoro
48'Giacomo Stabile
60'Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes
66'⇄Rares BurneteOff: Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes
67'Rares Burnete
73'

Chances to win

Sudtirol%36

Draw%30

Ascoli%34

At a glance

Over 1.5

%47Over 2.5

%54Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Under 2.5.

%53Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 5.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%54

Over 2.5%47

Not both score%46

Sudtirol win%36

Ascoli win%34

Draw%30

Why?

Sudtirol: 2 or fewer goals in 8 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

SudtirolW4-1L0-1D1-1W2-0D1-1

AscoliW3-1L0-1W1-0D1-1W2-1

Last 4 meetings

2Sudtirol won

1Draw

1Ascoli won

3.0
Goals per game3/4
Over 2.53/4
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Sudtirol · last 10 at home1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 0 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Ascoli · last 10 away4/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Sudtirol · last 10 at home4.4 corners, 2.2 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners

Ascoli · last 3 away4.7 corners, 2.0 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners2/3Over 4.5 corners1/3Over 5.5 corners1/3Over 0.5 cards3/3Over 1.5 cards2/3

Bench

G. Crespi, M. Nicoletti, L. Venuti, F. Gattoni, S. Perciun, G. Acampora, L. Lo Scalzo, G. De Pieri, M. Ricci, A. Chakir, G. Gori, D. Bolsius

Giacomo De PieriOff: Andrea·Silipo

73'⇄amine chakirOff: Matteo Brunori

73'⇄Gennao AcamporaOff: Tommaso Milanese

75'⇄Lorenzo AngheleOff: Aljosa Vasic

80'⇄Davide VeroliOff: Giacomo Stabile

80'⇄Dhirar BrikOff: Fabio Rispoli

87'⇄Don BolsiusOff: Simone D'Uffizi

Statistics

42%Possession58%

1.17Expected goals0.7

16Total shots9

4Shots on target2

5Corners5

15Fouls8

0Offsides3

4Yellow cards1

0Red cards0

2Saves4

Ascoli: 2 or fewer goals in 3 of their last 10 away matches.

Sudtirol scored 0.7 and conceded 1.0 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Ascoli scored 1.8 and conceded 1.1 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Sudtirol · last 10 at home: 2 or fewer goals 8 times8/10

Sudtirol: 10 games · Ascoli: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

0.8Goals scored (avg)1.8

1.0Goals conceded (avg)1.0

1.8Total goals per gameleague 2.72.8

8/10Over 0.5league %979/10

7/10Over 1.5league %806/10

2/10Over 2.5league %526/10

1/10Over 3.5league %243/10

0/10Over 4.5league %112/10

5/10Both scoreleague %615/10

4/10Clean sheets3/10

3/10Failed to score3/10

Sudtirol: 10 games · Ascoli: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.0Goals scored (avg)1.7

1.0Goals conceded (avg)1.0

2.0Total goals per gameleague 2.72.7

9/10Over 0.5league %979/10

7/10Over 1.5league %807/10

2/10Over 2.5league %524/10

1/10Over 3.5league %243/10

1/10Over 4.5league %112/10

4/10Both scoreleague %616/10

3/10Clean sheets3/10

4/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%31 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Sudtirol win 471, 309 end level and Ascoli win 221. The actual result comes up 309 times in 1000.

%30 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

1.17 – 0.70 The score the chances deserved (xG): Sudtirol 1.17 – 0.70 Ascoli.

7.4

Man of the match: S. Vitale (Ascoli), rated 7.4.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 4 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Sudtirol · Serie B

Ascoli · Serie B

Sudtirol · All games

Ascoli · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Sudtirol's ground

Last 4 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match