Padova – Sudtirol: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Serie B · Italy · Matchday 9

PadovaSerie B · #7

2-0Tuesday, October 27

SudtirolSerie B · #8

Match events

PadovaSudtirol

19'⚽Gabriele ArtisticoAssist: Giovanni·Giunti
45'⇄Rares BurneteOff: Aljosa Vasic
62'⇄Fabio RispoliOff: Dhirar Brik
68'Matteo Lovato
68'Salvatore Molina
69'Matteo Cocchi
70'

Chances to win

Padova%38

Draw%30

Sudtirol%31

At a glance

Over 1.5

%44Over 2.5

%51Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Under 2.5.

%56Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%51

Not both score%49

Over 2.5%44

Padova win%38

Sudtirol win%31

Draw%30

Why?

Padova: 2 or fewer goals in 7 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

PadovaW1-0L1-2L0-2L1-2W1-0

SudtirolD1-1L0-3D0-0W4-1L0-1

Last 13 meetings

4Padova won

6Draw

3Sudtirol won

1.5
Goals per game2/13
Over 2.54/13
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Padova · last 10 at home0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 0 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Sudtirol · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Padova · last 10 at home4.3 corners, 2.0 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners4/10Over 5.5 corners

Sudtirol · last 10 away2.7 corners, 2.3 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners2/10Over 4.5 corners1/10Over 5.5 corners1/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards8/10

Bench

Rok Vadjunec, M. Pellini, S. Davì, G. Stabile, Marco Iuliano, Fabio Rispoli, Kevin Zeroli, F. Tait, Elias Schroot, R. Burnete, L. Anghelè, K. Mixtur

Padova – SudtirolMarch 9, 2022 · Coppa Italia Serie C0-0

Padova – SudtirolDecember 12, 2021 · Serie C - Girone A0-0

Sudtirol – PadovaFebruary 21, 2021 · Serie C - Girone B1-1

Padova – SudtirolOctober 25, 2020 · Serie C - Girone B2-0

Padova – SudtirolNovember 10, 2019 · Serie C - Girone B0-1

Sudtirol – PadovaFebruary 24, 2018 · Serie C1-1

Padova – SudtirolOctober 8, 2017 · Serie C3-1

Sudtirol – PadovaApril 30, 2017 · Serie C1-0

Padova – SudtirolDecember 11, 2016 · Serie C2-0

Lorenzo CarissoniOff: Matteo Cocchi

70'⇄Alexander SeghettiOff: Luca Moro

72'⇄Kenny Meddy MixturOff: Alvin Okoro

78'⇄Alessandro CapelliOff: Emanuele Zuelli

78'⇄Kevin VarasOff: Marco Pompetti

81'⇄Kevin ZeroliOff: Federico Davi

87'⚽Alessandro Capelli

87'VARKevin VarasGoal confirmed

90'⇄Nicolas GalazziOff: Pietro Fusi

90+2'Alessandro Dellavalle

Statistics

38%Possession62%

1.58Expected goals1.82

12Total shots22

5Shots on target5

3Corners6

19Fouls11

3Offsides1

4Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

5Saves3

Sudtirol: 2 or fewer goals in 5 of their last 10 away matches.

Padova scored 0.9 and conceded 1.1 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Sudtirol scored 1.1 and conceded 1.9 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Padova · last 10 at home: 2 or fewer goals 7 times7/10

Sudtirol · last 10 away: 2 or fewer goals 5 times5/10

Padova: 10 games · Sudtirol: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

0.9Goals scored (avg)0.9

0.9Goals conceded (avg)1.8

1.8Total goals per gameleague 2.72.7

10/10Over 0.5league %979/10

5/10Over 1.5league %817/10

2/10Over 2.5league %504/10

1/10Over 3.5league %233/10

0/10Over 4.5league %112/10

3/10Both scoreleague %615/10

5/10Clean sheets1/10

2/10Failed to score5/10

Padova: 10 games · Sudtirol: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.0Goals scored (avg)1.0

1.1Goals conceded (avg)1.1

2.1Total goals per gameleague 2.72.1

10/10Over 0.5league %979/10

7/10Over 1.5league %818/10

3/10Over 2.5league %502/10

1/10Over 3.5league %231/10

0/10Over 4.5league %111/10

5/10Both scoreleague %615/10

4/10Clean sheets2/10

1/10Failed to score4/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%34 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Padova win 338, 225 end level and Sudtirol win 437. The actual result comes up 338 times in 1000.

1.58 – 1.82 The score the chances deserved (xG): Padova 1.58 – 1.82 Sudtirol.

8.5

Man of the match: A. Sorrentino (Padova), rated 8.5.

%38 Our model's pre-match chance of a Padova win.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 13 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Padova · Serie B

Sudtirol · Serie B

Padova · All games

Sudtirol · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Padova's ground

Last 13 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match