Sudtirol – Sampdoria: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Serie B · Italy · Matchday 8

SudtirolSerie B · #8

1-1Saturday, October 24

SampdoriaSerie B · #19

Match events

SudtirolSampdoria

12'⇄Manuel CicconiOff: Fabio Depaoli
18'Manuel Cicconi
34'⚽Yari VerschaerenAssist: Tjas Begic
60'⇄Alvin OkoroOff: Rares Burnete
60'⇄Elia SchrottOff: Simone Davì
61'Giacomo Stabile

Chances to win

Sudtirol%35

Draw%31

Sampdoria%34

At a glance

Over 1.5

%44Over 2.5

%51Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Under 2.5.

%56Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%51

Not both score%49

Over 2.5%44

Sudtirol win%35

Sampdoria win%34

Draw%31

Why?

Sudtirol: 2 or fewer goals in 8 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

SudtirolL0-3D0-0W4-1L0-1D1-1

SampdoriaL1-2L1-4W2-1L0-2L1-3

Last 7 meetings

4Sudtirol won

1Draw

2Sampdoria won

2.3
Goals per game3/7
Over 2.54/7
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Sudtirol · last 10 at home1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 0 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Sampdoria · last 10 away0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).4/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).0/10games led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Sudtirol · last 10 at home4.3 corners, 2.5 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners

Sampdoria · last 10 away5.3 corners, 2.2 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners3/10Over 0.5 cards10/10Over 1.5 cards5/10

Bench

P. Vindahl, S. Massolo, S. Gartenmann, K. Diop, K. Mbabu, M. Cicconi, G. Tutino

Sampdoria – SudtirolApril 13, 2024 · Serie B0-1

Sudtirol – SampdoriaOctober 28, 2023 · Serie B3-1

Sampdoria – SudtirolAugust 14, 2023 · Coppa Italia1-1

Gennaro TutinoOff: Tobias Lauritsen

67'⇄Stefan GartenmannOff: Alex Ferrari

67'⇄Davide VeroliOff: Giacomo Stabile

68'Stefan Gartenmann

76'⇄Dhirar BrikOff: Aljosa Vasic

76'⇄Kevin ZeroliOff: Simone Tronchin

82'⇄Yann KaramohOff: Tjas Begic

83'⇄Kevin MbabuOff: Yari Verschaeren

90+6'⚽Salvatore MolinaPenalty

Statistics

70%Possession30%

1.84Expected goals0.63

11Total shots12

2Shots on target3

2Corners5

11Fouls16

0Offsides1

1Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

2Saves1

Sampdoria: 2 or fewer goals in 6 of their last 10 away matches.

Sudtirol scored 0.7 and conceded 0.9 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Sampdoria scored 0.5 and conceded 1.9 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Sudtirol · last 10 at home: 2 or fewer goals 8 times8/10

Sampdoria · last 10 away: 2 or fewer goals 6 times6/10

Sudtirol: 10 games · Sampdoria: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

0.8Goals scored (avg)0.6

0.8Goals conceded (avg)1.7

1.6Total goals per gameleague 2.72.3

8/10Over 0.5league %979/10

7/10Over 1.5league %808/10

1/10Over 2.5league %523/10

0/10Over 3.5league %242/10

0/10Over 4.5league %111/10

5/10Both scoreleague %615/10

4/10Clean sheets1/10

3/10Failed to score5/10

Sudtirol: 10 games · Sampdoria: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.0Goals scored (avg)1.0

1.1Goals conceded (avg)1.8

2.1Total goals per gameleague 2.72.8

9/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

8/10Over 1.5league %8010/10

2/10Over 2.5league %525/10

1/10Over 3.5league %242/10

1/10Over 4.5league %111/10

5/10Both scoreleague %617/10

2/10Clean sheets1/10

4/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%34 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Sudtirol win 452, 337 end level and Sampdoria win 211. The actual result comes up 337 times in 1000.

%31 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

1.03 – 0.60 The score the chances deserved (xG): Sudtirol 1.03 – 0.60 Sampdoria.

70 – 30 Possession (%): Sudtirol 70 – 30 Sampdoria.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 7 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Sudtirol · Serie B

Sampdoria · Serie B

Sudtirol · All games

Sampdoria · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Sudtirol's ground

Last 7 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match