Avellino – Sampdoria: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Serie B · Italy · Matchday 6

AvellinoSerie B · #10

4-1Friday, October 9

SampdoriaSerie B · #19

Match events

AvellinoSampdoria

12'⚽Walid CheddiraAssist: Brando Moruzzi
18'⚽Lorenzo InsigneAssist: Tobias Lauritsen
20'⚽Martin PalumboAssist: Raffaele Russo
24'⚽Raffaele RussoAssist: Brando Moruzzi
29'⚽Michele Besaggio
45'⇄Alex FerrariOff: Yann Karamoh
59'

Chances to win

Avellino%35

Draw%30

Sampdoria%35

At a glance

Over 1.5

%47Over 2.5

%53Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Under 2.5.

%53Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 5.Missed

Other scenarios

Both score%53

Over 2.5%47

Not both score%47

Avellino win%35

Sampdoria win%35

Draw%30

Why?

Avellino: 2 or fewer goals in 7 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

AvellinoL1-3D1-1W1-0W3-0L1-2

SampdoriaW2-1L0-2L1-3L1-2D1-1

Last 2 meetings

1Avellino won

0Draw

1Sampdoria won

3.0
Goals per game2/2
Over 2.52/2
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Avellino · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Sampdoria · last 10 away0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).5/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).0/10games led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Avellino · last 10 at home5.3 corners, 3.0 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners6/10

Sampdoria · last 10 away5.0 corners, 2.2 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners2/10Over 0.5 cards10/10Over 1.5 cards5/10

Bench

Andrey Krastev, S. Massolo, L. Ravanelli, F. Depaoli, A. Ferrari, K. Mbabu, T. Begić, G. Tutino

Andrea FavilliOff: Walid Cheddira

59'⇄Giacomo FaticantiOff: Luca Palmiero

61'⇄Gennaro TutinoOff: Yari Verschaeren

68'⇄Fabio DepaoliOff: Liam Henderson

68'⇄Tjas BegicOff: Tobias Lauritsen

76'⇄Tommaso BiasciOff: Raffaele Russo

76'⇄Dimitrios SounasOff: Martin Palumbo

79'VARTommaso BiasciGoal cancelled

85'⇄Marco SalaOff: Brando Moruzzi

90+3'Michele Besaggio

Statistics

51%Possession49%

2.35Expected goals0.58

9Total shots12

4Shots on target3

0Corners6

11Fouls12

3Offsides1

4Yellow cards1

0Red cards0

2Saves0

Sampdoria: 2 or fewer goals in 7 of their last 10 away matches.

Avellino scored 1.3 and conceded 0.7 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Sampdoria scored 0.5 and conceded 1.6 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Avellino · last 10 at home: 2 or fewer goals 7 times7/10

Sampdoria · last 10 away: 2 or fewer goals 7 times7/10

Avellino: 10 games · Sampdoria: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.7Goals scored (avg)0.6

0.8Goals conceded (avg)1.7

2.5Total goals per gameleague 2.72.3

10/10Over 0.5league %979/10

7/10Over 1.5league %808/10

4/10Over 2.5league %523/10

2/10Over 3.5league %242/10

2/10Over 4.5league %111/10

5/10Both scoreleague %615/10

4/10Clean sheets1/10

1/10Failed to score5/10

Avellino: 10 games · Sampdoria: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.3Goals scored (avg)0.8

1.3Goals conceded (avg)2.0

2.6Total goals per gameleague 2.72.8

10/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

8/10Over 1.5league %8010/10

5/10Over 2.5league %525/10

2/10Over 3.5league %242/10

1/10Over 4.5league %111/10

6/10Both scoreleague %617/10

2/10Clean sheets0/10

2/10Failed to score3/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

0 – 6 Corners: Avellino 0 – 6 Sampdoria.

%77 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Avellino win 771, 155 end level and Sampdoria win 74. The actual result comes up 771 times in 1000.

2.35 – 0.58 The score the chances deserved (xG): Avellino 2.35 – 0.58 Sampdoria.

8.6

Man of the match: B. Moruzzi (Avellino), rated 8.6.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 2 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Avellino · Serie B

Sampdoria · Serie B

Avellino · All games

Sampdoria · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Last 2 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match