Millwall – Derby: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Championship · England · Matchday 13

Millwall

4-1Saturday, October 31

Derby

Match events

MillwallDerby

3'⚽Kyrell LisbieAssist: Lyndon Dykes
10'⚽Kyrell LisbieAssist: Caleb Taylor
17'⚽Luke CundleAssist: Camiel Neghli
24'Lyndon Dykes
32'Derek Mazou Sacko
37'⇄Alex MowattOff: D. Ozoh
45+1'

Chances to win

Millwall%57

Draw%24

Derby%19

At a glance

Over 1.5

%53Over 2.5

%52Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Millwall win.

%57Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%53

Both score%52

Not both score%48

Under 2.5%47

Draw%24

Derby win%19

Why?

Millwall won 4 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

MillwallL1-2D2-2L0-1W1-0D2-2

DerbyD1-1L0-1L1-4D1-1D1-1

Last 15 meetings

7Millwall won

5Draw

3Derby won

2.1
Goals per game5/15
Over 2.57/15
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Millwall · last 10 at home4/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Derby · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Millwall · last 10 at home6.7 corners, 1.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners

Derby · last 10 away4.1 corners, 2.5 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners4/10Over 5.5 corners4/10Over 0.5 cards10/10Over 1.5 cards10/10

This season 11 games · 0 goals · 0 assists · Injury

P. Agyemang

No games this season · Achilles Tendon Injury

Starting line-ups

Millwall · 4-2-3-1

15M. Crocombe

3Zak Norton Sturge

4T. Crama

5J. Cooper

6C. Taylor

10C. Neghli

14Jenson Metcalfe

22K. Lisbie

25L. Cundle

49D. Mazou-Sacko

13L. Dykes

Bench

G. Evans, E. Baggott, R. Leonard, R. Esse, D. Kelly, M. Sykes, A. Doughty, M. Ivanović, J. Coburn

Derby · 4-2-3-1

1J. Widell Zetterström

14J. Robinson

22M. Johnston

24R. Nyambe

26R. Hedges

4D. Ozoh

8B. Clark

10R. Brewster

11S. Szmodics

19H. Meister

9C. Morris

Bench

J. Vickers, S. Duffy, I. Gordon, F. Bilbija, A. Mowatt, O. Fraulo, L. Salvesen, M. Fuseini, C. Blackett-Taylor

Derby – MillwallFebruary 23, 2022 · Championship1-2

Millwall – DerbyNovember 6, 2021 · Championship1-1

Derby – MillwallMarch 13, 2021 · Championship0-1

Millwall – DerbyDecember 5, 2020 · Championship0-1

Millwall – DerbyJune 20, 2020 · Championship2-3

Derby – MillwallDecember 14, 2019 · Championship0-1

Derby – MillwallFebruary 20, 2019 · Championship0-1

Millwall – DerbyAugust 18, 2018 · Championship2-1

Millwall – DerbyJanuary 30, 2018 · Championship0-0

Derby – MillwallDecember 23, 2017 · Championship3-0

Millwall – DerbyApril 25, 2015 · Championship3-3

57'⇄Mohammed FuseiniOff: Henrik Wendel Meister

67'⇄Ryan LeonardOff: Tristan Crama

68'⇄Mihailo·IvanovicOff: Lyndon Dykes

74'⇄Mark SykesOff: Camiel Neghli

74'⇄Alfie DoughtyOff: Kyrell Lisbie

78'⇄Lars-Jørgen SalvesenOff: Carlton Morris

78'⇄Filip BilbijaOff: Sammie Szmodics

78'⇄Oscar FrauloOff: Rhian Brewster

78'⇄Romain EsseOff: Zak Sturge

84'⚽Jake CooperAssist: Mihailo·Ivanovic

Statistics

56%Possession44%

4.16Expected goals1.26

22Total shots13

9Shots on target4

4Corners5

9Fouls9

1Offsides1

3Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

3Saves5

Millwall scored 1.5 and conceded 1.1 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Derby scored 1.3 and conceded 2.0 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Derby · last 10 away: 6 defeats6/10

Millwall: 10 games · Derby: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.5Goals scored (avg)1.3

1.1Goals conceded (avg)2.0

2.6Total goals per gameleague 2.93.3

10/10Over 0.5league %9410/10

8/10Over 1.5league %7610/10

5/10Over 2.5league %607/10

3/10Over 3.5league %373/10

0/10Over 4.5league %143/10

2/10Both scoreleague %638/10

4/10Clean sheets1/10

4/10Failed to score1/10

Millwall: 10 games · Derby: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.3Goals scored (avg)0.7

1.6Goals conceded (avg)1.7

2.9Total goals per gameleague 2.92.4

10/10Over 0.5league %9410/10

7/10Over 1.5league %768/10

7/10Over 2.5league %604/10

5/10Over 3.5league %371/10

0/10Over 4.5league %141/10

5/10Both scoreleague %635/10

2/10Clean sheets1/10

3/10Failed to score4/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%85 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Millwall win 851, 83 end level and Derby win 66. The actual result comes up 851 times in 1000.

9 – 4 Shots on target: Millwall 9 – 4 Derby.

8.4

Man of the match: K. Lisbie (Millwall), rated 8.4.

4.16 – 1.26 The score the chances deserved (xG): Millwall 4.16 – 1.26 Derby.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 15 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Millwall · Championship

Derby · Championship

Millwall · All games

Derby · All games

Missing players

This fixture at Millwall's ground

Last 15 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Starting line-ups

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match