Portsmouth – Millwall: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Championship · England · Matchday 12

Portsmouth

2-1Saturday, October 24

Millwall

Match events

PortsmouthMillwall

6'⚽Jenson Metcalfe
16'⚽Lyndon DykesOwn goal
24'Tristan Crama
45'Jake Cooper
61'⇄Ebou AdamsOff: Adrian Segecic
62'⇄Tyrese ShadeOff: Ryan Kavuma-McQueen
68'

Chances to win

Portsmouth%37

Draw%28

Millwall%34

At a glance

Over 1.5

%48Over 2.5

%54Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Under 2.5.

%52Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 5.Missed

Other scenarios

Both score%54

Over 2.5%48

Not both score%46

Portsmouth win%37

Millwall win%34

Draw%28

Why?

Portsmouth: 2 or fewer goals in 6 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

PortsmouthD1-1W1-0W3-2L0-1D2-2

MillwallD2-2L0-1W1-0D2-2D2-2

Last 8 meetings

2Portsmouth won

0Draw

6Millwall won

2.3
Goals per game4/8
Over 2.54/8
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Portsmouth · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Millwall · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Portsmouth · last 10 at home6.9 corners, 1.7 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/10Over 4.5 corners8/10Over 5.5 corners6/10

Millwall · last 10 away4.4 corners, 1.6 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners4/10Over 5.5 corners3/10Over 0.5 cards8/10Over 1.5 cards5/10

This season 3 games · 0 goals · 0 assists · Muscle Injury

J. Coburn

This season 5 games · 2 goals · 0 assists · Muscle Injury

M. Servais

This season 1 games · 0 goals · 0 assists · Inactive

T. Arconte

This season 10 games · 3 goals · 0 assists · Ankle Injury

Starting line-ups

Portsmouth · 4-2-3-1

1N. Schmid

5R. Poole

22Z. Swanson

24T. Devlin

55M. Dia

7M. Pack

10A. Segecic

11A. Kamara

25R. Kavuma McQueen

37I. Mohamed

29M. Milovanović

Bench

D. Bielica, J. Meghoma, R. Shein, O. Bailey, E. Kenny, E. Adams, F. Umeh, T. Shade, T. Waddingham

Millwall · 4-2-3-1

15M. Crocombe

3Zak Norton Sturge

4T. Crama

5J. Cooper

6C. Taylor

10C. Neghli

14Jenson Metcalfe

22K. Lisbie

25L. Cundle

49D. Mazou-Sacko

13L. Dykes

Bench

G. Evans, J. Osei-Tutu, E. Baggott, R. Leonard, R. Esse, D. Kelly, M. Sykes, A. Doughty, M. Ivanović

Portsmouth – MillwallAugust 13, 2024 · League Cup0-1

Millwall – PortsmouthAugust 10, 2021 · League Cup2-1

Portsmouth – MillwallApril 10, 2012 · Championship0-1

Millwall – PortsmouthDecember 26, 2011 · Championship1-0

Mihailo·IvanovicOff: Lyndon Dykes

68'⇄Romain EsseOff: Kyrell Lisbie

71'Marko Milovanović

71'⇄Thomas WaddinghamOff: Marko Milovanović

75'⇄Ryan LeonardOff: Tristan Crama

76'⇄Alfie DoughtyOff: Luke Cundle

82'⚽Thomas Waddingham

87'⇄D. KellyOff: Jenson Metcalfe

Statistics

48%Possession52%

0.91Expected goals0.73

7Total shots10

2Shots on target1

5Corners5

12Fouls12

1Offsides6

2Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

0Saves1

Millwall: 2 or fewer goals in 6 of their last 10 away matches.

Portsmouth scored 1.4 and conceded 1.3 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Millwall scored 1.3 and conceded 1.3 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Portsmouth · last 10 at home: 2 or fewer goals 6 times6/10

Millwall · last 10 away: 2 or fewer goals 6 times6/10

Portsmouth: 10 games · Millwall: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.6Goals scored (avg)1.1

1.3Goals conceded (avg)1.4

2.9Total goals per gameleague 2.92.5

10/10Over 0.5league %949/10

9/10Over 1.5league %777/10

5/10Over 2.5league %624/10

4/10Over 3.5league %393/10

1/10Over 4.5league %161/10

6/10Both scoreleague %626/10

3/10Clean sheets4/10

1/10Failed to score1/10

Portsmouth: 10 games · Millwall: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.1Goals scored (avg)1.7

0.9Goals conceded (avg)1.4

2.0Total goals per gameleague 2.93.1

8/10Over 0.5league %9410/10

6/10Over 1.5league %777/10

3/10Over 2.5league %627/10

2/10Over 3.5league %396/10

1/10Over 4.5league %161/10

4/10Both scoreleague %626/10

4/10Clean sheets2/10

4/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%38 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Portsmouth win 378, 346 end level and Millwall win 276. The actual result comes up 378 times in 1000.

0.91 – 0.73 The score the chances deserved (xG): Portsmouth 0.91 – 0.73 Millwall.

8.2

Man of the match: Jenson Metcalfe (Millwall), rated 8.2.

%37 Our model's pre-match chance of a Portsmouth win.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 8 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Portsmouth · Championship

Millwall · Championship

Portsmouth · All games

Millwall · All games

Missing players

This fixture at Portsmouth's ground

Last 8 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Starting line-ups

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match