Preston – Millwall: probabilities, statistics and live score

Preston

0-1Saturday, October 10

Millwall

Match events

PrestonMillwall

15'Leo Leroy
19'Jenson Metcalfe
45'⇄Pol ValentinOff: Harry Clarke
59'⇄Delano BurgzorgOff: Callum Lang
66'⇄Tristan CramaOff: Ryan Leonard
66'⇄Luke CundleOff: Kyrell Lisbie

Chances to win

Preston%32

Draw%27

Millwall%41

At a glance

Over 1.5

%54Over 2.5

%58Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

Last 5 matches

PrestonD2-2L0-1L1-2W2-1L1-3

MillwallD2-2D2-2L1-3L0-1W

Last 8 meetings

0Preston won

4Draw

4Millwall won

2.8
Goals per game2/8
Over 2.56/8
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Preston · last 10 at home1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).5/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Millwall · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Preston · last 10 at home6.6 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners

Millwall · 4-2-3-1

34F. Marschall

3Zak Norton Sturge

5J. Cooper

6C. Taylor

18R. Leonard

7T. Arconte

10C. Neghli

14Jenson Metcalfe

22K. Lisbie

49D. Mazou-Sacko

13L. Dykes

Bench

M. Crocombe, J. Osei-Tutu, T. Crama, D. Batth, M. Sykes, L. Cundle, A. Doughty, Z. Lovelace, Y. Issoufou

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%58Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Missed

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%54

Under 2.5%46

Not both score%42

Millwall win%41

Preston win%32

Draw%27

Why?

Preston · last 10 at home: both scored 7 times7/10

Millwall · last 10 away: both scored 6 times6/10

Preston: both sides scored in 7 of their last 10 home matches.
Millwall: both sides scored in 6 of their last 10 away matches.
Preston scored 1.0 and conceded 2.0 per game in their last 10 home matches.
Millwall scored 1.2 and conceded 1.3 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Preston: 10 games · Millwall: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

0.7Goals scored (avg)1.1

2.0Goals conceded (avg)1.4

2.7Total goals per gameleague 2.92.5

10/10Over 0.5league %949/10

8/10Over 1.5league %777/10

5/10Over 2.5league %624/10

4/10Over 3.5league %393/10

0/10Over 4.5league %161/10

6/10Both scoreleague %626/10

0/10Clean sheets4/10

4/10Failed to score1/10

Preston: 10 games · Millwall: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

0.8Goals scored (avg)1.7

2.1Goals conceded (avg)1.4

2.9Total goals per gameleague 2.93.1

10/10Over 0.5league %9410/10

8/10Over 1.5league %777/10

6/10Over 2.5league %627/10

4/10Over 3.5league %396/10

1/10Over 4.5league %161/10

6/10Both scoreleague %626/10

0/10Clean sheets2/10

4/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%47 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Preston win 214, 313 end level and Millwall win 473. The actual result comes up 473 times in 1000.

0.67 – 1.15 The score the chances deserved (xG): Preston 0.67 – 1.15 Millwall.

8.2

Man of the match: C. Neghli (Millwall), rated 8.2.

%41 Our model's pre-match chance of an Millwall win.

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

Last 5 matches

Last 8 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Preston's ground

Last 8 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Preston · Championship

Millwall · Championship

Preston · All games

Millwall · All games

Statistics

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match