Toulouse – Estac Troyes: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Ligue 1 · France · Matchday 8

ToulouseLigue 1 · #11

0-0Sunday, October 25

Estac TroyesLigue 1 · #17

Match events

ToulouseEstac Troyes

25'Rafik Messali
25'Aron Dønnum
36'Junior Diaz
39'Cristian Casseres
40'Timothee Nkada
58'⇄Alexis VossahOff: Rafik Messali
67'

Chances to win

Toulouse%63

Draw%21

Estac Troyes%16

At a glance

Over 1.5

%60Over 2.5

%56Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Toulouse win.

%63Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Missed

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%60

Both score%56

Not both score%44

Under 2.5%40

Draw%21

Estac Troyes win%16

Why?

Toulouse won 4 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

ToulouseW3-0D2-2W3-2D2-2L0-1

Estac TroyesL1-3L0-2L0-2L0-2L2-6

Last 11 meetings

7Toulouse won

4Draw

0Estac Troyes won

2.5
Goals per game5/11
Over 2.54/11
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Toulouse · last 10 at home0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Estac Troyes · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Toulouse · last 10 at home5.6 corners, 2.5 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners9/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners6/10

Estac Troyes · last 10 away5.3 corners, 1.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners3/10Over 0.5 cards7/10Over 1.5 cards5/10

Bench

T. Collin, S. Koumbassa, I. Diallo, A. Vossah, M. Amougou, N. Schmidt, Julián Vignolo, S. Hidalgo, Y. Azizi

Estac Troyes · 4-3-3

40H. Konaté

2L. Maronnier

4M. Diaz

5P. Gozzi

6A. Monfray

8M. Diop

17A. Mille

29D. Karim

10M. Ifnaoui

20R. Ripart

23T. Nkada

Bench

P. Beach, Noah Donkor, I. Gomis, H. Picard, A. Phliponeau, I. Soukouna, K. Diawara, J. Le Douaron

Toulouse – Estac TroyesOctober 3, 2020 · Ligue 20-0

Toulouse – Estac TroyesJanuary 27, 2018 · Ligue 11-0

Estac Troyes – ToulouseSeptember 9, 2017 · Ligue 10-0

Toulouse – Estac TroyesMay 7, 2016 · Ligue 11-0

Estac Troyes – ToulouseDecember 2, 2015 · Ligue 10-3

Toulouse – Estac TroyesFebruary 16, 2013 · Ligue 12-2

Estac Troyes – ToulouseSeptember 29, 2012 · Ligue 10-2

Ilyas AziziOff: Aron Dønnum

73'⇄Jérémy Le DouaronOff: Renaud Ripart

73'⇄Kandet DiawaraOff: Timothee Nkada

84'⇄Santiago HidalgoOff: Jacen Russell-Rowe

84'⇄Niklas SchmidtOff: Thomas Jorgensen

88'Jens Berthel Askou

90'⇄Iron GomisOff: Mouhamed Diop

Statistics

63%Possession37%

0.7Expected goals0.38

7Total shots8

3Shots on target0

4Corners2

19Fouls14

1Offsides0

6Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

0Saves3

Toulouse scored 1.0 and conceded 1.4 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Estac Troyes scored 1.2 and conceded 1.1 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Toulouse: 10 games · Estac Troyes: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

0.9Goals scored (avg)1.2

1.4Goals conceded (avg)1.1

2.3Total goals per gameleague 3.02.3

9/10Over 0.5league %929/10

6/10Over 1.5league %798/10

4/10Over 2.5league %615/10

3/10Over 3.5league %361/10

1/10Over 4.5league %160/10

4/10Both scoreleague %634/10

2/10Clean sheets3/10

5/10Failed to score4/10

Toulouse: 10 games · Estac Troyes: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.6Goals scored (avg)0.9

1.3Goals conceded (avg)1.7

2.9Total goals per gameleague 3.02.6

9/10Over 0.5league %928/10

8/10Over 1.5league %797/10

7/10Over 2.5league %614/10

4/10Over 3.5league %363/10

1/10Over 4.5league %161/10

6/10Both scoreleague %633/10

2/10Clean sheets3/10

3/10Failed to score6/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%21 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

%44 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Toulouse win 386, 436 end level and Estac Troyes win 177. The actual result comes up 436 times in 1000.

0.70 – 0.38 The score the chances deserved (xG): Toulouse 0.70 – 0.38 Estac Troyes.

7.4

Man of the match: A. Monfray (Estac Troyes), rated 7.4.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 11 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Toulouse · Ligue 1

Estac Troyes · Ligue 1

Toulouse · All games

Estac Troyes · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Toulouse's ground

Last 11 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match