Le Mans – Toulouse: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Ligue 1 · France · Matchday 7

Le MansLigue 1 · #15

0-3Friday, October 16

ToulouseLigue 1 · #11

Match events

Le MansToulouse

46'⚽Jacen Russell-RoweAssist: Aron Dønnum
49'Jacen Russell-Rowe
59'⚽Aron Dønnum
61'⇄Bilal BrahimiOff: Daouda Traore
61'⇄Lucas CalodatOff: Yasser Larouci
61'⇄Habib DialloOff: Dame Gueye

Chances to win

Le Mans%30

Draw%26

Toulouse%43

At a glance

Over 1.5

%58Over 2.5

%61Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%61Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Missed

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%58

Toulouse win%43

Under 2.5%42

Not both score%39

Le Mans win%30

Draw%26

Why?

Le Mans: both sides scored in 6 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

Le MansL1-3W2-1D2-2D1-1L2-3

ToulouseD2-2W3-2D2-2L0-1D2-2

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Le Mans · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Toulouse · last 10 away0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Le Mans · last 10 at home4.0 corners, 2.2 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners4/10Over 4.5 corners4/10Over 5.5 corners

Toulouse · last 10 away2.6 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners3/10Over 4.5 corners1/10Over 5.5 corners1/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards8/10

Bench

E. Hatfout, N. Boissé, L. Calodat, R. Bamba, A. Lauray, B. Brahimi, A. Rabillard, H. Diallo, W. Harhouz

Toulouse · 4-2-3-1

16G. Restes

2R. Nicolaisen

3M. McKenzie

12C. Tapé

22R. Messali

8T. Jørgensen

14N. Sigur

15A. Dønnum

20C. Tengstedt

23C. Cásseres

13J. Russell-Rowe

Bench

T. Collin, S. Koumbassa, D. Odogu, I. Diallo, A. Vossah, M. Amougou, N. Schmidt, Julián Vignolo, S. Hidalgo

Alexis VossahOff: Aron Dønnum

69'⇄Rayan BambaOff: Lucas Buades

76'⇄Julián VignoloOff: Jacen Russell-Rowe

77'⇄Noa BoisséOff: Harold Voyer

78'VARCasper TengstedtGoal cancelled

85'⇄Seny KoumbassaOff: Rasmus Nicolaisen

87'⚽Casper TengstedtAssist: Cristian Casseres

90+4'Djibril Sidibé

Statistics

53%Possession47%

0.85Expected goals1.83

11Total shots13

1Shots on target5

2Corners2

15Fouls9

0Offsides3

2Yellow cards1

0Red cards0

2Saves1

Toulouse: both sides scored in 9 of their last 10 away matches.

Le Mans scored 1.8 and conceded 0.8 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Toulouse scored 1.8 and conceded 2.3 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Le Mans · last 10 at home: both scored 6 times6/10

Toulouse · last 10 away: both scored 9 times9/10

Le Mans: 10 games · Toulouse: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.7Goals scored (avg)2.1

1.1Goals conceded (avg)2.2

2.8Total goals per gameleague 3.04.3

10/10Over 0.5league %9210/10

9/10Over 1.5league %7910/10

6/10Over 2.5league %6110/10

3/10Over 3.5league %368/10

0/10Over 4.5league %163/10

6/10Both scoreleague %639/10

3/10Clean sheets1/10

1/10Failed to score0/10

Le Mans: 10 games · Toulouse: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.4Goals scored (avg)1.6

1.7Goals conceded (avg)1.3

3.1Total goals per gameleague 3.02.9

10/10Over 0.5league %929/10

10/10Over 1.5league %798/10

6/10Over 2.5league %617/10

4/10Over 3.5league %364/10

1/10Over 4.5league %161/10

8/10Both scoreleague %636/10

1/10Clean sheets2/10

1/10Failed to score3/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

0.85 – 1.83 The score the chances deserved (xG): Le Mans 0.85 – 1.83 Toulouse.

%61 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Le Mans win 170, 225 end level and Toulouse win 605. The actual result comes up 605 times in 1000.

8.9

Man of the match: A. Dønnum (Toulouse), rated 8.9.

%44 Our model's pre-match chance of an Toulouse win.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Le Mans · Ligue 1

Toulouse · Ligue 1

Le Mans · All games

Toulouse · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match