Auxerre – Le Mans: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Ligue 1 · France · Matchday 8

AuxerreLigue 1 · #12

1-1Sunday, October 25

Le MansLigue 1 · #15

Match events

AuxerreLe Mans

21'Alexandre Lauray
26'Lucas Buades
44'William Still
48'⚽Lucas BuadesAssist: Lucas Bretelle
48'VARLucas BuadesGoal confirmed
53'⇄Noa BoisséOff: Djibril Sidibé

Chances to win

Auxerre%46

Draw%26

Le Mans%28

At a glance

Over 1.5

%56Over 2.5

%59Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%56Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Missed

Other scenarios

Both score%59

Auxerre win%46

Under 2.5%44

Not both score%41

Le Mans win%28

Draw%26

Why?

Auxerre: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

AuxerreW3-1L1-4W2-1W1-0L1-3

Le MansL0-3L1-3W2-1D2-2D1-1

Last 5 meetings

3Auxerre won

1Draw

1Le Mans won

2.8
Goals per game2/5
Over 2.53/5
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Auxerre · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Le Mans · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Auxerre · last 10 at home5.7 corners, 1.2 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners

Le Mans · last 10 away5.0 corners, 2.2 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners5/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards7/10

Bench

M. Diop, S. Diomandé, R. Mandengue, E. Legros, P. Ekwah, L. Dioubate, A. Piedfort, Aristide Zossou

Le Mans · 3-4-3

98N. Kocik

16Raúl Torrente

17S. Yohou

19D. Sidibé

8A. Lauray

18L. Buadés

22L. Calodat

29L. Bretelle

9A. Rabillard

13H. Diallo

14L. Mafouta

Bench

E. Hatfout, N. Boissé, R. Bamba, J. Vercruysse, D. Traoré, B. Brahimi, W. Harhouz, D. Guèye

Le Mans – AuxerreAugust 20, 2012 · Ligue 2

63'⇄Jean VercruysseOff: Alexandre Lauray

63'⇄Dame GueyeOff: Habib Diallo

73'⇄Rayan MandengueOff: Lamine Sy

86'⇄Pierre EkwahOff: Kevin Danois

86'⇄Aristide ZossouOff: Danny Namaso

86'⇄Daouda TraoreOff: Antoine Rabillard

87'⇄Rayan BambaOff: Lucas Buades

90+8'⇄Arthur PiedfortOff: Naouirou Ahamada

90+8'⇄Youssef KhouddaOff: Cameron Archer

Statistics

60%Possession40%

0.91Expected goals1.23

13Total shots11

5Shots on target2

7Corners1

15Fouls12

0Offsides3

1Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

1Saves5

Le Mans: 3+ goals in 5 of their last 10 away matches.

Auxerre scored 1.2 and conceded 0.9 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Le Mans scored 1.7 and conceded 1.7 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Auxerre · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

Le Mans · last 10 away: 3+ goals 5 times5/10

Auxerre: 10 games · Le Mans: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.3Goals scored (avg)1.6

1.0Goals conceded (avg)1.4

2.3Total goals per gameleague 3.03.0

8/10Over 0.5league %928/10

7/10Over 1.5league %798/10

6/10Over 2.5league %614/10

2/10Over 3.5league %364/10

0/10Over 4.5league %163/10

5/10Both scoreleague %637/10

4/10Clean sheets3/10

3/10Failed to score2/10

Auxerre: 10 games · Le Mans: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.6Goals scored (avg)1.4

1.9Goals conceded (avg)1.7

3.5Total goals per gameleague 3.03.1

10/10Over 0.5league %9210/10

9/10Over 1.5league %7910/10

7/10Over 2.5league %616/10

5/10Over 3.5league %364/10

2/10Over 4.5league %161/10

8/10Both scoreleague %638/10

2/10Clean sheets1/10

0/10Failed to score1/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%29 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Auxerre win 273, 291 end level and Le Mans win 436. The actual result comes up 291 times in 1000.

%26 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

0.91 – 1.23 The score the chances deserved (xG): Auxerre 0.91 – 1.23 Le Mans.

7 – 1 Corners: Auxerre 7 – 1 Le Mans.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 5 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Auxerre · Ligue 1

Le Mans · Ligue 1

Auxerre · All games

Le Mans · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Auxerre's ground

Last 5 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match