Fluminense – Santos: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Serie A · Brazil · Matchday 31

FluminenseSerie A · #4

1-2Sunday, October 18

SantosSerie A · #8

Match events

FluminenseSantos

4'⚽Rodrigo CastilloAssist: Igor Rabello
25'Álvaro Barreal
31'Agustín Canobbio
49'⚽Gabriel BarbosaAssist: Rodinei
54'⚽Philippe CoutinhoAssist: Gabriel Bontempo
57'⇄HulkOff: Rodrigo Castillo
57'

Chances to win

Fluminense%42

Draw%27

Santos%31

At a glance

Over 1.5

%51Over 2.5

%55Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%55Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%51

Under 2.5%49

Not both score%45

Fluminense win%42

Santos win%31

Draw%27

Why?

Fluminense: both sides scored in 5 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

FluminenseL1-2L0-1W4-0W3-1L1-2

SantosL1-2D2-2W2-1W2-1L2-4

Last 7 meetings

4Fluminense won

3Draw

0Santos won

2.0
Goals per game3/7
Over 2.52/7
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Fluminense · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Santos · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Fluminense · last 10 at home6.0 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners6/10

Santos · last 10 away3.3 corners, 3.0 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners4/10Over 4.5 corners3/10Over 5.5 corners2/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards9/10

Fluminense · 4-2-3-1

Bench

Marcelo, Thiago Silva, J. Freytes, Guga, J. Millán, PH Ganso, Otávio, Hulk, J. Savarino, Wesley Nata, K. Serna

Santos · 4-2-3-1

1Diógenes

4Lucas Veríssimo

14Luan Peres

22Á. Barreal

23Rodinei

7Everton

8Gabriel Bontempo

10Neymar

11Philippe Coutinho

48Gustavo Henrique Pereira

9Gabriel Barbosa

Bench

João Paulo, Igor Vinicius, João Paulo Ananias, Rafael Gonzaga, João Alencar, João Schmidt, Thaciano, Gabriel Menino, C. Oliva, M. Terceros, B. Rollheiser, Rony

Fluminense – SantosJuly 29, 2023 · Serie A1-0

Santos – FluminenseAugust 2, 2022 · Serie A2-2

Fluminense – SantosApril 9, 2022 · Serie A0-0

Jefferson David Savarino QuinteroOff: Yeferson Soteldo

57'⇄Paulo Henrique Chagas de LimaOff: Luciano Acosta

57'⇄Wesley Natã de Freitas PradoOff: Agustín Canobbio

72'⇄RonyOff: Philippe Coutinho

72'⇄Christian OlivaOff: Everton

76'⇄Kevin SernaOff: Gustavo Nonato Santana

83'⇄João Alencar Santos Paes da CostaOff: Lucas Veríssimo

87'⇄Rafael GonzagaOff: Álvaro Barreal

87'⇄Benjamín RollheiserOff: Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior

90+5'Jefferson David Savarino Quintero

Statistics

46%Possession54%

1.17Expected goals2.13

8Total shots17

2Shots on target5

4Corners5

18Fouls18

2Yellow cards1

0Red cards0

3Saves1

Santos: both sides scored in 5 of their last 10 away matches.

Fluminense scored 1.5 and conceded 0.9 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Santos scored 1.5 and conceded 1.3 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Fluminense · last 10 at home: both scored 5 times5/10

Santos · last 10 away: both scored 5 times5/10

Fluminense: 10 games · Santos: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.7Goals scored (avg)1.6

1.1Goals conceded (avg)1.4

2.8Total goals per gameleague 2.73.0

9/10Over 0.5league %959/10

8/10Over 1.5league %788/10

7/10Over 2.5league %518/10

3/10Over 3.5league %252/10

1/10Over 4.5league %132/10

6/10Both scoreleague %596/10

4/10Clean sheets3/10

1/10Failed to score2/10

Fluminense: 10 games · Santos: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.5Goals scored (avg)1.6

1.4Goals conceded (avg)1.3

2.9Total goals per gameleague 2.72.9

10/10Over 0.5league %959/10

8/10Over 1.5league %789/10

8/10Over 2.5league %517/10

3/10Over 3.5league %252/10

0/10Over 4.5league %131/10

7/10Both scoreleague %598/10

2/10Clean sheets2/10

1/10Failed to score1/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%31 Our model's pre-match chance of an Santos win.

%66 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Fluminense win 152, 188 end level and Santos win 660. The actual result comes up 660 times in 1000.

8 – 17 Shots: Fluminense 8 – 17 Santos.

0.99 – 2.26 The score the chances deserved (xG): Fluminense 0.99 – 2.26 Santos.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 7 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Fluminense · Serie A

Santos · Serie A

Fluminense · All games

Santos · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Fluminense's ground

Last 7 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match