Fluminense – Palmeiras: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·CONMEBOL Libertadores · Semi-final

FluminenseSerie A · #4

1-2Thursday, October 15

PalmeirasSerie A · #2

Match events

FluminensePalmeiras

45'⇄Hércules Pereira do NascimentoOff: Matheus Martinelli Lima
45'⚽José Manuel LópezAssist: Joaquín Piquerez
49'Alexander Barboza
63'⇄Kevin SernaOff: Agustín Canobbio
74'⇄Felipe AndersonOff: Jhon Arias
74'⇄Ramon SosaOff: José Manuel López

Chances to win

Fluminense%33

Draw%32

Palmeiras%35

At a glance

Over 1.5

%36Over 2.5

%45Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

Last 5 matches

FluminenseL0-1W4-0W3-1L1-2L1-3

PalmeirasW4-1W1-0D0-0L2-3W

Last 15 meetings

6Fluminense won

4Draw

5Palmeiras won

2.0
Goals per game5/15
Over 2.58/15
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Fluminense · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Palmeiras · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Fluminense · last 10 at home5.6 corners, 2.0 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners

Palmeiras · last 10 away4.7 corners, 2.6 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/10Over 4.5 corners4/10Over 5.5 corners3/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards7/10

Bench

Marcelo Lomba, Bruno Fuchs, Khellven, Arthur, Felipe Anderson, Maurício, E. Martínez, Larson, Luis Felipe, Paulinho, R. Sosa, Heittor

Palmeiras – FluminenseDecember 8, 2024 · Serie A0-1

Fluminense – PalmeirasJuly 25, 2024 · Serie A1-0

Palmeiras – FluminenseDecember 3, 2023 · Serie A1-0

Fluminense – PalmeirasAugust 6, 2023 · Serie A2-1

Fluminense – PalmeirasAugust 28, 2022 · Serie A1-1

Palmeiras – FluminenseMay 8, 2022 · Serie A1-1

Fluminense – PalmeirasNovember 15, 2021 · Serie A2-1

Palmeiras – FluminenseJuly 25, 2021 · Serie A1-0

Palmeiras – FluminenseNovember 15, 2020 · Serie A2-0

Fluminense – PalmeirasAugust 13, 2020 · Serie A1-1

Fluminense – PalmeirasNovember 29, 2019 · Serie A1-0

74'⇄Maurício Magalhães PradoOff: Andreas Pereira

78'⇄Rodrigo CastilloOff: Hulk

78'⇄Luciano AcostaOff: Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima

84'⇄Wesley Natã de Freitas PradoOff: Jefferson David Savarino Quintero

85'⚽Marlon FreitasAssist: Felipe Anderson

90+3'⚽Wesley Natã de Freitas PradoAssist: Claudio Rodrigues Gomes

90+6'Maurício Magalhães Prado

90+6'Gustavo Nonato Santana

Statistics

70%Possession30%

0.52Expected goals1.19

11Total shots7

3Shots on target5

6Corners0

9Fouls15

2Offsides2

1Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

3Saves2

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Under 2.5.

%64Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Missed

Other scenarios

Not both score%55

Both score%45

Over 2.5%36

Palmeiras win%35

Fluminense win%33

Draw%32

Why?

Fluminense · last 10 at home: 2 or fewer goals 5 times5/10

Palmeiras · last 10 away: 2 or fewer goals 5 times5/10

Fluminense: 2 or fewer goals in 5 of their last 10 home matches.
Palmeiras: 2 or fewer goals in 5 of their last 10 away matches.
Fluminense scored 1.7 and conceded 0.8 per game in their last 10 home matches.
Palmeiras scored 1.5 and conceded 1.1 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Fluminense: 10 games · Palmeiras: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.7Goals scored (avg)1.0

1.1Goals conceded (avg)0.8

2.8Total goals per gameleague 2.11.8

9/10Over 0.5league %906/10

8/10Over 1.5league %635/10

7/10Over 2.5league %333/10

3/10Over 3.5league %142/10

1/10Over 4.5league %82/10

6/10Both scoreleague %434/10

4/10Clean sheets6/10

1/10Failed to score4/10

Fluminense: 10 games · Palmeiras: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.5Goals scored (avg)1.5

1.4Goals conceded (avg)0.6

2.9Total goals per gameleague 2.12.1

10/10Over 0.5league %908/10

8/10Over 1.5league %636/10

8/10Over 2.5league %333/10

3/10Over 3.5league %142/10

0/10Over 4.5league %82/10

7/10Both scoreleague %433/10

2/10Clean sheets6/10

1/10Failed to score3/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

6 – 0 Corners: Fluminense 6 – 0 Palmeiras.

70 – 30 Possession (%): Fluminense 70 – 30 Palmeiras.

%53 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Fluminense win 162, 311 end level and Palmeiras win 527. The actual result comes up 527 times in 1000.

%35 Our model's pre-match chance of an Palmeiras win.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

Last 5 matches

Last 15 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Fluminense's ground

Last 15 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Fluminense · CONMEBOL Libertadores

Palmeiras · CONMEBOL Libertadores

Fluminense · All games

Palmeiras · All games

Statistics

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match