Palmeiras – Corinthians: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Serie A · Brazil · Matchday 30

PalmeirasSerie A · #2

4-1Sunday, October 11

CorinthiansSerie A · #18

Match events

PalmeirasCorinthians

9'Jhon Arias
15'Raniele
16'⚽Alexander BarbozaAssist: Lucas Evangelista
45+1'⚽Agustin GiayAssist: Jhon Arias
46'⚽Matheus BiduOwn goal
48'Memphis Depay
49'

Chances to win

Palmeiras%59

Draw%25

Corinthians%16

At a glance

Over 1.5

%46Over 2.5

%46Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Palmeiras win.

%59Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Under 2.5%54

Not both score%54

Both score%46

Over 2.5%46

Draw%25

Corinthians win%16

Why?

Palmeiras won 7 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

PalmeirasW1-0D0-0L2-3W2-0W1-0

CorinthiansL1-2L1-3L0-1L1-2D1-1

Last 15 meetings

6Palmeiras won

5Draw

4Corinthians won

1.5
Goals per game2/15
Over 2.53/15
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Palmeiras · last 10 at home4/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Corinthians · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).0/10games led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Palmeiras · last 10 at home7.1 corners, 1.6 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners9/10Over 4.5 corners9/10Over 5.5 corners7/10Over 0.5 cards

Corinthians · last 10 away5.0 corners, 3.4 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners4/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards9/10

Bench

Marcelo Lomba, Bruno Fuchs, Khellven, Arthur, Felipe Anderson, Marlon Freitas, Maurício, E. Martínez, Larson, Luis Felipe, Paulinho, R. Sosa

Corinthians · 4-2-3-1

1Hugo Souza

2Matheuzinho

3Gabriel Paulista

13Gustavo Henrique

21Matheus Bidu

7Breno

10M. Depay

14Raniele

19A. Carrillo

49Andre

9Yuri Alberto

Bench

Kauê Camargo, João Pedro, André Ramalho, F. Angileri, I. Machado, Allan, Charles, Dieguinho, J. Lingard, Vitinho, Pedro Raul, Guilherme Inácio

Corinthians – PalmeirasJuly 31, 2025 · Copa Do Brasil1-0

Palmeiras – CorinthiansApril 13, 2025 · Serie A2-0

Corinthians – PalmeirasMarch 28, 2025 · Paulista - A10-0

Palmeiras – CorinthiansMarch 17, 2025 · Paulista - A10-1

Palmeiras – CorinthiansFebruary 7, 2025 · Paulista - A11-1

Corinthians – PalmeirasNovember 5, 2024 · Serie A2-0

Palmeiras – CorinthiansJuly 2, 2024 · Serie A2-0

Corinthians – PalmeirasSeptember 3, 2023 · Serie A0-0

Palmeiras – CorinthiansApril 30, 2023 · Serie A2-1

Corinthians – PalmeirasAugust 14, 2022 · Serie A0-1

Palmeiras – CorinthiansApril 24, 2022 · Serie A3-0

57'⇄VitinhoOff: Breno Bidon

57'⇄AllanOff: André Carrillo

69'⇄Maurício Magalhães PradoOff: José Manuel López

69'⇄Emiliano MartínezOff: Lucas Evangelista

69'⇄Ramon SosaOff: Vitor Roque

69'⇄André RamalhoOff: André

69'⇄Pedro RaulOff: Yuri Alberto

77'⇄Paulo Henrique Sampaio FilhoOff: Ramon Sosa

81'✕Paulo Henrique Sampaio FilhoMissed penalty

83'⇄DieguinhoOff: Raniele

83'⇄Bruno FuchsOff: Gustavo Gómez

90+1'⚽Gustavo HenriqueAssist: Vitinho

Statistics

55%Possession45%

2.68Expected goals0.77

22Total shots12

8Shots on target3

7Corners3

17Fouls11

2Offsides1

3Yellow cards4

0Red cards0

2Saves5

Palmeiras scored 1.7 and conceded 0.4 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Corinthians scored 1.1 and conceded 1.2 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Palmeiras · last 10 at home: 7 wins7/10

Palmeiras: 10 games · Corinthians: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.8Goals scored (avg)1.0

0.4Goals conceded (avg)1.7

2.2Total goals per gameleague 2.72.7

9/10Over 0.5league %959/10

6/10Over 1.5league %789/10

3/10Over 2.5league %515/10

2/10Over 3.5league %252/10

2/10Over 4.5league %132/10

3/10Both scoreleague %597/10

6/10Clean sheets2/10

2/10Failed to score2/10

Palmeiras: 10 games · Corinthians: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.5Goals scored (avg)1.1

0.6Goals conceded (avg)1.9

2.1Total goals per gameleague 2.73.0

8/10Over 0.5league %9510/10

6/10Over 1.5league %789/10

3/10Over 2.5league %516/10

2/10Over 3.5league %253/10

2/10Over 4.5league %132/10

3/10Both scoreleague %598/10

6/10Clean sheets1/10

3/10Failed to score1/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%78 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Palmeiras win 777, 140 end level and Corinthians win 83. The actual result comes up 777 times in 1000.

2.68 – 0.77 The score the chances deserved (xG): Palmeiras 2.68 – 0.77 Corinthians.

8 – 3 Shots on target: Palmeiras 8 – 3 Corinthians.

9.2

Man of the match: A. Giay (Palmeiras), rated 9.2.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 15 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Palmeiras · Serie A

Corinthians · Serie A

Palmeiras · All games

Corinthians · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Palmeiras's ground

Last 15 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match