Atletico-MG – Santos: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Serie A · Brazil · Matchday 30

Atletico-MGSerie A · #7

2-1Sunday, October 11

SantosSerie A · #8

Match events

Atletico-MGSantos

8'⇄Luan PeresOff: Willian Arão
45'⇄Alan MindaOff: Victor Hugo Gomes Silva
45'⇄RonyOff: Benjamín Rollheiser
45+2'Alan Franco
45+4'Lucas Veríssimo
66'Luan Peres

Chances to win

Atletico-MG%43

Draw%27

Santos%30

At a glance

Over 1.5

%52Over 2.5

%57Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%57Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%52

Under 2.5%48

Not both score%43

Atletico-MG win%43

Santos win%30

Draw%27

Why?

Atletico-MG: both sides scored in 7 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

Atletico-MGD2-2W1-0D1-1W4-2W3-1

SantosD2-2W2-1W2-1L2-4W2-1

Last 9 meetings

3Atletico-MG won

3Draw

3Santos won

2.2
Goals per game2/9
Over 2.54/9
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Atletico-MG · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Santos · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Atletico-MG · last 10 at home6.2 corners, 1.2 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners10/10Over 4.5 corners8/10Over 5.5 corners5/10

Santos · last 10 away3.6 corners, 2.7 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners4/10Over 5.5 corners3/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards9/10

Atletico-MG · 4-2-3-1

1Gabriel Delfim

2Natanael

3Léo Duarte

14Vitor Hugo

36K. Pascini

5Alexsander

15K. Castaño

17Igor Gomes

21A. Franco

30Victor Hugo

18T. Borbas

Bench

Robert, Renan Lodi, Lyanco, A. Preciado, Vitão, Pedro Lemos, Maycon, Reinier, Mamady Cisse, A. Minda, Caua, Dudu

Santos · 4-2-3-1

1Diógenes

4Lucas Veríssimo

15Willian Arão

23Rodinei

31G. Escobar

7Everton

8Gabriel Bontempo

28C. Oliva

32B. Rollheiser

48Gustavo Henrique Pereira

9Gabriel Barbosa

Bench

Á. Barreal

Santos – Atletico-MGApril 17, 2025 · Serie A2-0

Atletico-MG – SantosAugust 27, 2023 · Serie A2-0

Santos – Atletico-MGApril 23, 2023 · Serie A0-0

Santos – Atletico-MGOctober 6, 2022 · Serie A1-2

Atletico-MG – SantosJune 12, 2022 · Serie A1-1

69'⇄Maycon de Andrade BarberanOff: Kevin Castaño

69'⇄Mamady CisseOff: Alan Franco

70'⇄Angelo PreciadoOff: Natanael Moreira Milouski

72'⇄Philippe CoutinhoOff: Gabriel Bontempo

72'⇄João SchmidtOff: Gustavo Henrique

82'⇄Eduardo Pereira RodriguesOff: Alexsander Cristhian Gomes da Costa

85'⇄Álvaro BarrealOff: Everton

88'⚽Gabriel BarbosaAssist: Philippe Coutinho

90+1'⚽Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de SouzaAssist: Maycon de Andrade Barberan

90+7'⚽Thiago BorbasAssist: Alan Minda

Statistics

58%Possession42%

1.49Expected goals1.14

21Total shots10

5Shots on target3

12Corners3

10Fouls12

1Offsides3

3Yellow cards5

0Red cards0

2Saves4

Santos: both sides scored in 5 of their last 10 away matches.

Atletico-MG scored 1.9 and conceded 0.9 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Santos scored 1.8 and conceded 1.2 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Atletico-MG · last 10 at home: both scored 7 times7/10

Santos · last 10 away: both scored 5 times5/10

Atletico-MG: 10 games · Santos: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.9Goals scored (avg)1.6

0.8Goals conceded (avg)1.4

2.7Total goals per gameleague 2.73.0

10/10Over 0.5league %959/10

7/10Over 1.5league %788/10

6/10Over 2.5league %518/10

2/10Over 3.5league %252/10

1/10Over 4.5league %132/10

6/10Both scoreleague %596/10

3/10Clean sheets3/10

1/10Failed to score2/10

Atletico-MG: 10 games · Santos: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.6Goals scored (avg)1.6

1.2Goals conceded (avg)1.3

2.8Total goals per gameleague 2.72.9

10/10Over 0.5league %959/10

7/10Over 1.5league %789/10

5/10Over 2.5league %517/10

3/10Over 3.5league %252/10

2/10Over 4.5league %131/10

5/10Both scoreleague %598/10

3/10Clean sheets2/10

2/10Failed to score1/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

90+1'

Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza decided it in minute 90.

%45 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Atletico-MG win 452, 257 end level and Santos win 290. The actual result comes up 452 times in 1000.

1.49 – 1.14 The score the chances deserved (xG): Atletico-MG 1.49 – 1.14 Santos.

21 – 10 Shots: Atletico-MG 21 – 10 Santos.

3 more numbers for this match in Premium

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 9 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Atletico-MG · Serie A

Santos · Serie A

Atletico-MG · All games

Santos · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Atletico-MG's ground

Last 9 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match