The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.
%66Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 7.Came true ✓
Other scenarios
Both score%64
Manchester City win%57
Not both score%36
Under 2.5%34
Brighton win%21
Draw%21
Why?
Manchester City: 3+ goals in 9 of their last 10 home matches.
Last 5 matches
Manchester CityL1-2W5-1W3-2L2-4W3-0
BrightonL0-2D0-0W5-0W4-0W2-0
Last 15 meetings
9Manchester City won
3Draw
3Brighton won
3.5 Goals per game12/15 Over 2.510/15 Both score
Handicap and HT/FT history
By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.
Manchester City · last 10 at home5/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).7/10games led at half-time.Won 6 of the 7 games it led at half-time.
Brighton · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 1 games it led at half-time.
Corners and cards
Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.
Manchester City · last 10 at home6.9 corners, 1.0 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners7/10
Referee
A. Madley3.8 cards a match in 56 recorded games
Premium members onlyLikely scores, likely scorers, corner, card and half chances.
Manchester City · All games
8W 0D 2LScored 28 · conceded 122.5 Üst 7/10KG 5/10
Brighton · All games
6W 2D 2LScored 26 · conceded 92.5 Üst 6/10KG 3/10
Missing players
No absentees reported
Starting line-ups
Manchester City · 4-2-3-1
28G. Rulli
6M. Guéhi
22Vitor Nunes
33N. O'Reilly
82R. Lewis
8M. Kovačić
10R. Cherki
32A. Bouaddi
37Allan
47P. Foden
75F. Samba
Bench
M. Bettinelli, R. Aït-Nouri, A. Khusanov, K. Braithwaite, E. Fernández, I. Ndiaye, J. Doku, R. McAidoo
Brighton · 4-2-3-1
23J. Steele
3J. Hadjam
This fixture at Manchester City's ground
The meetings the home side hosted, of the last 7
5Manchester City won
2Draw
0Brighton won
Manchester City last won here on Oct 21, 2023: Manchester City 2-1 Brighton.Brighton won none of the last 7 here.3.0 goals a game here · over 2.5 5/7 · BTTS 4/7
Last 15 meetings
9Manchester City won
3Draw
3Brighton won
3.5 Goals per game12/15 Over 2.510/15 Both score
Previous meetings
Manchester City – BrightonJanuary 7, 2026 · Premier League1-1
Brighton – Manchester CityAugust 31, 2025 · Premier League2-1
Manchester City – BrightonMarch 15, 2025 · Premier League2-2
Brighton – Manchester CityNovember 9, 2024 · Premier League
Over 0.5 cards
7/10
Over 1.5 cards1/10
Brighton · last 10 away6.1 corners, 1.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners5/10Over 0.5 cards8/10Over 1.5 cards6/10
Manchester City · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 9 times9/10
Brighton · last 10 away: 3+ goals 5 times5/10
Manchester City: 10 games · Brighton: 10 games · league average in grey
Goals
2.6Goals scored (avg)1.6
1.6Goals conceded (avg)1.1
4.2Total goals per gameleague 3.12.7
10/10Over 0.5league %988/10
8/10Over 1.5league %816/10
8/10Over 2.5league %564/10
6/10Over 3.5league %384/10
5/10Over 4.5league %213/10
7/10Both scoreleague %563/10
2/10Clean sheets5/10
1/10Failed to score4/10
Manchester City: 10 games · Brighton: 10 games · league average in grey
Goals
2.7Goals scored (avg)2.5
1.5Goals conceded (avg)0.6
4.2Total goals per gameleague 3.13.1
10/10Over 0.5league %989/10
8/10Over 1.5league %818/10
8/10Over 2.5league %566/10
6/10Over 3.5league %385/10
5/10Over 4.5league %213/10
6/10Both scoreleague %562/10
3/10Clean sheets7/10
1/10Failed to score2/10
The real story of the match
What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.
%20 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Manchester City win 155, 201 end level and Brighton win 644. The actual result comes up 201 times in 1000.
%21 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.
0.91 – 2.08 The score the chances deserved (xG): Manchester City 0.91 – 2.08 Brighton.
8.5 Man of the match: G. Rutter (Brighton), rated 8.5.
Manchester CityPremier League · #1
BrightonPremier League · #3