Dynamo Dresden – FC Schalke 04: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·DFB Pokal · Germany · Round of 32

Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga · #15

2-0Wednesday, October 28

FC Schalke 04Bundesliga · #16

Match events

Dynamo DresdenFC Schalke 04

37'Edin Džeko
44'Hwang Hee-Chan
53'⚽Patrice ČovićAssist: Simon Straudi
60'Patrice Čović
60'Adil Aouchiche
61'⇄Kenan KaramanOff: Luca Vozar
67'

Chances to win

Dynamo Dresden%30

Draw%26

FC Schalke 04%44

At a glance

Over 1.5

%57Over 2.5

%60Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%60Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Missed

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%57

FC Schalke 04 win%44

Under 2.5%43

Not both score%40

Dynamo Dresden win%30

Draw%26

Why?

Dynamo Dresden: both sides scored in 4 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

Dynamo DresdenL0-3W2-0D1-1L1-2D2-2

FC Schalke 04D0-0L0-1L1-2D0-0W3-1

Last 5 meetings

1Dynamo Dresden won

1Draw

3FC Schalke 04 won

2.8
Goals per game4/5
Over 2.53/5
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Dynamo Dresden · last 10 at home4/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).6/10games led at half-time.Won 6 of the 6 games it led at half-time.

FC Schalke 04 · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Dynamo Dresden · last 10 at home5.0 corners, 1.7 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners

FC Schalke 04 · last 10 away4.3 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners1/10Over 0.5 cards10/10Over 1.5 cards6/10

Bench

K. Müller, T. Becker, D. Ljubičić, F. Porath, E. Gashi, B. Lasme, K. Karaman, J. Adamu

October 23, 2021 · 2. Bundesliga

Dynamo Dresden – FC Schalke 04August 18, 2014 · DFB Pokal2-1

Alexander RossipalOff: Simon Straudi

68'⇄Jakob LemmerOff: Patrice Čović

70'⇄Timo BeckerOff: Mertcan Ayhan

70'⇄Dejan LjubičićOff: Junior Dina Ebimbe

75'⇄Christoph DafernerOff: Niklas Hauptmann

75'⇄Luca HerrmannOff: Vincent Vermeij

77'⇄Junior Chukwubuike AdamuOff: Hwang Hee-Chan

82'⇄Ahmet MuhamedbegovicOff: Friedrich Müller

88'⚽Christoph DafernerAssist: Alexander Rossipal

Statistics

53%Possession47%

0.78Expected goals0.74

10Total shots8

2Shots on target4

2Corners4

12Fouls10

2Yellow cards5

0Red cards0

4Saves0

FC Schalke 04: both sides scored in 7 of their last 10 away matches.

Dynamo Dresden scored 1.9 and conceded 0.7 per game in their last 10 home matches.

FC Schalke 04 scored 1.3 and conceded 1.6 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

FC Schalke 04 · last 10 away: both scored 7 times7/10

Dynamo Dresden: 10 games · FC Schalke 04: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.8Goals scored (avg)1.2

0.6Goals conceded (avg)1.7

2.4Total goals per gameleague 4.12.9

10/10Over 0.5league %989/10

7/10Over 1.5league %969/10

4/10Over 2.5league %717/10

1/10Over 3.5league %563/10

1/10Over 4.5league %381/10

3/10Both scoreleague %506/10

6/10Clean sheets1/10

1/10Failed to score4/10

Dynamo Dresden: 10 games · FC Schalke 04: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.9Goals scored (avg)0.7

1.5Goals conceded (avg)1.1

3.4Total goals per gameleague 4.11.8

10/10Over 0.5league %987/10

9/10Over 1.5league %965/10

6/10Over 2.5league %714/10

3/10Over 3.5league %562/10

2/10Over 4.5league %380/10

5/10Both scoreleague %503/10

4/10Clean sheets4/10

1/10Failed to score6/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%33 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Dynamo Dresden win 329, 364 end level and FC Schalke 04 win 306. The actual result comes up 329 times in 1000.

%30 Our model's pre-match chance of a Dynamo Dresden win.

0.78 – 0.74 The score the chances deserved (xG): Dynamo Dresden 0.78 – 0.74 FC Schalke 04.

8.0

Man of the match: P. Čović (Dynamo Dresden), rated 8.0.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 5 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Dynamo Dresden · All games

FC Schalke 04 · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Dynamo Dresden's ground

Last 5 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match