FC Augsburg – SC Freiburg: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Bundesliga · Germany · Matchday 8

FC AugsburgBundesliga · #9

1-2Saturday, October 31

SC FreiburgBundesliga · #3

Match events

FC AugsburgSC Freiburg

18'⚽Michael GregoritschAssist: Arijon Ibrahimovic
45'⇄Igor MatanovićOff: Lucas Höler
52'Maximilian Eggestein
62'⇄Vincenzo GrifoOff: Derry Lionel Scherhant
62'⇄Keisuke GotoOff: Yuito Suzuki
65'⚽Igor MatanovićAssist: Yannick Engelhardt

Chances to win

FC Augsburg%34

Draw%25

SC Freiburg%41

At a glance

Over 1.5

%64Over 2.5

%66Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

Last 5 matches

FC AugsburgW4-2D1-1L3-4D2-2L2-3

SC FreiburgW3-2L1-3L0-3L1-2W

Last 15 meetings

2FC Augsburg won

5Draw

8SC Freiburg won

3.0
Goals per game9/15
Over 2.510/15
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

FC Augsburg · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

SC Freiburg · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

FC Augsburg · last 10 at home5.1 corners, 2.0 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners

SC Freiburg · last 10 away4.9 corners, 1.9 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners4/10Over 5.5 corners3/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards5/10

Bench

N. Labrović, Seol Young-Woo, M. Wolf, M. Kömür, A. Claude-Maurice, T. Schnitzer, Rodrigo Ribeiro, U. Ogundu

SC Freiburg · 4-2-3-1

1M. Backhaus

3P. Lienhart

17L. Kübler

28M. Ginter

33J. Makengo

7D. Scherhant

8M. Eggestein

14Y. Suzuki

16Y. Engelhardt

19J. Beste

9L. Höler

Bench

J. Huth, A. Jung, C. Günter, M. Rosenfelder, P. Osterhage, V. Grifo, Cyriaque Kalou Irié, I. Matanović, K. Goto

FC Augsburg – SC FreiburgFebruary 25, 2024 · Bundesliga2-1

SC Freiburg – FC AugsburgOctober 1, 2023 · Bundesliga2-0

SC Freiburg – FC AugsburgJanuary 28, 2023 · Bundesliga3-1

FC Augsburg – SC FreiburgAugust 6, 2022 · Bundesliga0-4

FC Augsburg – SC FreiburgFebruary 19, 2022 · Bundesliga1-2

SC Freiburg – FC AugsburgSeptember 26, 2021 · Bundesliga3-0

SC Freiburg – FC AugsburgMarch 21, 2021 · Bundesliga2-0

FC Augsburg – SC FreiburgNovember 28, 2020 · Bundesliga1-1

FC Augsburg – SC FreiburgFebruary 15, 2020 · Bundesliga1-1

SC Freiburg – FC AugsburgSeptember 21, 2019 · Bundesliga1-1

SC Freiburg – FC AugsburgFebruary 23, 2019 · Bundesliga5-1

76'⇄Mert KömürOff: Anton Kade

76'⇄Rodrigo RibeiroOff: Michael Gregoritsch

76'⇄Maximilian RosenfelderOff: Lukas Kübler

83'⇄Alexis Claude-MauriceOff: Arijon Ibrahimovic

83'⇄Marius WolfOff: Han-Noah Massengo

83'⇄Cyriaque IriéOff: Jan-Niklas Beste

85'⚽Cyriaque IriéAssist: Vincenzo Grifo

88'⇄Uchenna OgunduOff: Yannik Keitel

Statistics

55%Possession45%

1.12Expected goals1.45

14Total shots10

5Shots on target2

1Corners2

7Fouls11

2Offsides2

0Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

0Saves4

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%64Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%66

SC Freiburg win%41

Under 2.5%36

Not both score%34

FC Augsburg win%34

Draw%25

Why?

FC Augsburg · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

SC Freiburg · last 10 away: 3+ goals 8 times8/10

FC Augsburg: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 home matches.
SC Freiburg: 3+ goals in 8 of their last 10 away matches.
FC Augsburg scored 1.9 and conceded 1.4 per game in their last 10 home matches.
SC Freiburg scored 1.6 and conceded 1.9 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

FC Augsburg: 10 games · SC Freiburg: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.9Goals scored (avg)1.7

1.6Goals conceded (avg)1.9

3.5Total goals per gameleague 3.53.6

10/10Over 0.5league %9110/10

10/10Over 1.5league %809/10

7/10Over 2.5league %709/10

5/10Over 3.5league %535/10

1/10Over 4.5league %342/10

8/10Both scoreleague %577/10

2/10Clean sheets1/10

0/10Failed to score2/10

FC Augsburg: 10 games · SC Freiburg: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.4Goals scored (avg)2.0

1.7Goals conceded (avg)1.6

4.1Total goals per gameleague 3.53.6

10/10Over 0.5league %9110/10

10/10Over 1.5league %809/10

8/10Over 2.5league %709/10

6/10Over 3.5league %535/10

4/10Over 4.5league %343/10

8/10Both scoreleague %577/10

2/10Clean sheets2/10

0/10Failed to score1/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

85'

Cyriaque Irié decided it in minute 85.

%45 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), FC Augsburg win 292, 261 end level and SC Freiburg win 447. The actual result comes up 447 times in 1000.

1.12 – 1.45 The score the chances deserved (xG): FC Augsburg 1.12 – 1.45 SC Freiburg.

8.2

Man of the match: M. Gregoritsch (FC Augsburg), rated 8.2.

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When they concede

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Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

Last 5 matches

Last 15 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at FC Augsburg's ground

Last 15 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

FC Augsburg · Bundesliga

SC Freiburg · Bundesliga

FC Augsburg · All games

SC Freiburg · All games

Statistics

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match