Barcelona – Real Madrid: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·La Liga · Spain · Matchday 10

BarcelonaPrimera División · #1

1-2Sunday, October 25

Real MadridPrimera División · #3

Match events

BarcelonaReal Madrid

30'⇄Alejandro BaldeOff: Xavi Espart
41'⚽Kylian Mbappé
46'Aurelien Tchouameni
61'⚽Raphael Dias BelloliAssist: Pedri
62'⇄Denzel DumfriesOff: Federico Valverde
74'⇄Frenkie de JongOff: Fermín López

Chances to win

Barcelona%59

Draw%17

Real Madrid%23

At a glance

Over 1.5

%79Over 2.5

%73Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%79Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 8.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%73

Barcelona win%59

Not both score%27

Real Madrid win%23

Under 2.5%21

Draw%17

Why?

Barcelona: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

BarcelonaL2-4W5-2W4-1W3-0W3-1

Real MadridW4-1W4-1W4-3W1-0L1-2

Last 15 meetings

9Barcelona won

1Draw

5Real Madrid won

4.1
Goals per game14/15
Over 2.510/15
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Barcelona · last 10 at home8/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).9/10games led at half-time.Won 9 of the 9 games it led at half-time.

Real Madrid · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Barcelona · last 10 at home8.1 corners, 1.7 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners10/10Over 4.5 corners8/10Over 5.5 corners7/10Over 0.5 cards

Real Madrid · last 10 away5.9 corners, 2.9 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners6/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards7/10

5Pau Cubarsí Paredes

Bench

W. Szczęsny, D. Livaković, Alejandro Balde, A. Campos, B. Farinas, Gavi, F. de Jong, Marc Bernal, O. Goren, Gabriel Jesus, K. Adeyemi, H. Abdelkarim

Real Madrid · 4-4-2

13A. Lunin

4D. Huijsen

8F. Valverde

16I. Konaté

17Marc Cucurella

5J. Bellingham

14A. Tchouaméni

15A. Güler

20Bernardo Silva

10Kylian Mbappé

25Y. Diomande

Bench

Sergio Mestre, I. Voloshyn, Éder Militão, T. Alexander-Arnold, Álvaro Fernández, A. Rüdiger, D. Dumfries, E. Camavinga, Brahim Díaz, Thiago Pitarch, Endrick, Carlos Espí

Barcelona – Real MadridApril 26, 2025 · Copa del Rey2-2

Real Madrid – BarcelonaJanuary 12, 2025 · Super Cup2-5

Real Madrid – BarcelonaOctober 26, 2024 · La Liga0-4

Barcelona – Real MadridAugust 4, 2024 · Friendlies Clubs2-1

Real Madrid – BarcelonaApril 21, 2024 · La Liga3-2

Real Madrid – BarcelonaJanuary 14, 2024 · Super Cup4-1

Barcelona – Real MadridOctober 28, 2023 · La Liga1-2

Real Madrid – BarcelonaJuly 30, 2023 · Friendlies Clubs0-3

Barcelona – Real MadridJuly 30, 2023 · Friendlies Clubs3-0

Barcelona – Real MadridApril 5, 2023 · Copa del Rey0-4

Barcelona – Real MadridMarch 19, 2023 · La Liga2-1

Eduardo CamavingaOff: Bernardo Silva

85'⇄Karim AdeyemiOff: Anthony Gordon

86'⇄Gabriel JesusOff: Raphael Dias Belloli

87'⚽Kylian MbappéAssist: Eduardo Camavinga

90+4'⇄Trent Alexander-ArnoldOff: Arda Güler

90+4'⇄Carlos EspíOff: Yan Diomande

90+6'Alejandro Balde

Statistics

62%Possession38%

1.27Expected goals2.01

18Total shots10

6Shots on target5

6Corners6

15Fouls11

3Offsides3

3Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

3Saves5

Real Madrid: 3+ goals in 5 of their last 10 away matches.

Barcelona scored 3.2 and conceded 0.9 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Real Madrid scored 1.7 and conceded 1.6 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Barcelona · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

Real Madrid · last 10 away: 3+ goals 5 times5/10

Barcelona: 10 games · Real Madrid: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

3.3Goals scored (avg)1.6

0.9Goals conceded (avg)1.3

4.2Total goals per gameleague 3.02.9

10/10Over 0.5league %9110/10

9/10Over 1.5league %768/10

7/10Over 2.5league %565/10

5/10Over 3.5league %362/10

4/10Over 4.5league %222/10

6/10Both scoreleague %586/10

4/10Clean sheets2/10

0/10Failed to score2/10

Barcelona: 10 games · Real Madrid: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

3.9Goals scored (avg)2.5

1.5Goals conceded (avg)1.3

5.4Total goals per gameleague 3.03.8

10/10Over 0.5league %9110/10

10/10Over 1.5league %768/10

10/10Over 2.5league %568/10

8/10Over 3.5league %365/10

7/10Over 4.5league %225/10

8/10Both scoreleague %588/10

2/10Clean sheets1/10

0/10Failed to score1/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

87'

Kylian Mbappé decided it in minute 87.

Real Madrid: win number 5 in a row.

%23 Our model's pre-match chance of an Real Madrid win.

%55 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Barcelona win 239, 215 end level and Real Madrid win 545. The actual result comes up 545 times in 1000.

2 more numbers for this match in Premium

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 15 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Barcelona · La Liga

Real Madrid · La Liga

Barcelona · All games

Real Madrid · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Barcelona's ground

Last 15 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match