Bolton – Middlesbrough: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Championship · England · Matchday 12

Bolton

1-5Friday, October 23

Middlesbrough

Match events

BoltonMiddlesbrough

13'⚽Aidan MorrisAssist: Amario Cozier-Duberry
31'⚽will lankshearAssist: Tommy Conway
39'⚽Lewis BruntOwn goal
45'⇄Max ConwayOff: Akin Famewo
45'⇄Atsuki ItoOff: Ruben Rodrigues
45+2'⚽Thelonius BairAssist: Gaizka Larrazabal

Chances to win

Bolton%21

Draw%22

Middlesbrough%57

At a glance

Over 1.5

%62Over 2.5

%61Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

Last 5 matches

BoltonD0-0W3-1L1-2W4-3W1-0

MiddlesbroughD2-2W3-2W1-0D2-2D

Last 14 meetings

1Bolton won

1Draw

12Middlesbrough won

2.6
Goals per game9/14
Over 2.56/14
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Bolton · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Middlesbrough · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Bolton · last 10 at home6.4 corners, 1.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners9/10Over 4.5 corners8/10Over 5.5 corners4/10

Middlesbrough · last 10 away4.4 corners, 1.4 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners4/10Over 4.5 corners4/10Over 5.5 corners3/10Over 0.5 cards7/10Over 1.5 cards5/10

Bench

J. Bonham, B. Davies, M. Conway, X. Simons, A. Ito, Luca Stephenson, S. Dalby, S. Iling-Junior, R. Hardie

Middlesbrough · 4-2-3-1

1R. Vítek

2C. Brittain

4A. Phillips

29A. Malanda

30Neto Borges

6S. Berhalter

8R. McGree

9T. Conway

10A. Morris

11A. Cozier-Duberry

7W. Lankshear

Bench

S. Brynn, S. Byram, L. Ayling, M. Arfsten, M. Peart-Harris, C. Barron, Leo Castledine, J. Sarmiento, K. Joseph

Middlesbrough – BoltonDecember 26, 2017 · Championship2-0

Bolton – MiddlesbroughSeptember 9, 2017 · Championship0-3

Bolton – MiddlesbroughApril 16, 2016 · Championship1-2

Middlesbrough – BoltonAugust 15, 2015 · Championship3-0

Middlesbrough – BoltonFebruary 24, 2015 · Championship1-0

Bolton – MiddlesbroughAugust 19, 2014 · Championship1-2

Bolton – MiddlesbroughJanuary 1, 2014 · Championship2-2

Middlesbrough – BoltonNovember 30, 2013 · Championship1-0

Bolton – MiddlesbroughApril 20, 2013 · Championship2-1

Middlesbrough – BoltonOctober 27, 2012 · Championship2-1

Sam DalbyOff: Thelonius Bair

55'⇄Ryan HardieOff: Ethan Erhahon

69'⇄Max ArfstenOff: Tommy Conway

73'⚽Amario Cozier-DuberryAssist: Riley McGree

74'⇄Xavier SimonsOff: Kyliane Dong

78'⚽will lankshearAssist: Riley McGree

79'⇄Jeremy SarmientoOff: Amario Cozier-Duberry

79'⇄Leo CastledineOff: Riley McGree

79'⇄Kyle JosephOff: will lankshear

86'⇄Myles Peart-HarrisOff: Sebastian Berhalter

Statistics

39%Possession61%

0.94Expected goals4.19

12Total shots31

4Shots on target12

2Corners12

9Fouls9

0Offsides4

1Yellow cards0

0Red cards0

8Saves3

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%62Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%61

Middlesbrough win%57

Not both score%39

Under 2.5%38

Draw%22

Bolton win%21

Why?

Bolton · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 7 times7/10

Middlesbrough · last 10 away: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

Bolton: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 home matches.
Middlesbrough: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 away matches.
Bolton scored 2.1 and conceded 1.5 per game in their last 10 home matches.
Middlesbrough scored 1.4 and conceded 1.5 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Bolton: 10 games · Middlesbrough: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.6Goals scored (avg)1.7

1.9Goals conceded (avg)1.4

3.5Total goals per gameleague 2.93.1

10/10Over 0.5league %9410/10

7/10Over 1.5league %778/10

7/10Over 2.5league %626/10

5/10Over 3.5league %394/10

5/10Over 4.5league %162/10

7/10Both scoreleague %627/10

2/10Clean sheets1/10

1/10Failed to score2/10

Bolton: 10 games · Middlesbrough: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.6Goals scored (avg)2.3

2.4Goals conceded (avg)1.5

4.0Total goals per gameleague 2.93.8

9/10Over 0.5league %9410/10

8/10Over 1.5league %778/10

8/10Over 2.5league %628/10

7/10Over 3.5league %396/10

5/10Over 4.5league %163/10

7/10Both scoreleague %626/10

2/10Clean sheets3/10

2/10Failed to score1/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%90 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Bolton win 37, 65 end level and Middlesbrough win 898. The actual result comes up 898 times in 1000.

0.94 – 4.19 The score the chances deserved (xG): Bolton 0.94 – 4.19 Middlesbrough.

12 – 31 Shots: Bolton 12 – 31 Middlesbrough.

4 – 12 Shots on target: Bolton 4 – 12 Middlesbrough.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

Last 5 matches

Last 14 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Bolton's ground

Last 14 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Bolton · Championship

Middlesbrough · Championship

Bolton · All games

Middlesbrough · All games

Statistics

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match