Wolves – Bolton: probabilities, statistics and live score

Wolves

1-3Tuesday, October 13

Bolton

Match events

WolvesBolton

26'Mateus Mane
28'⚽Atsuki Ito
45+1'Gaizka Larrazabal
50'⚽Jean-Ricner BellegardeAssist: Ladislav Krejčí
63'⇄Rafiki Said AhamadaOff: Mateus Mane
63'⇄Jayden NelsonOff: Samuel Iling
66'

Chances to win

Wolves%67

Draw%20

Bolton%13

At a glance

Over 1.5

%60Over 2.5

%53Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

Last 5 matches

WolvesL0-1W1-0L0-1W1-0D2-2

BoltonL1-2W4-3W1-0L2-3L

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Wolves · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Bolton · last 10 away0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).0/10games led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Wolves · last 10 at home4.4 corners, 1.5 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners

Bolton · 4-2-3-1

31G. Bazunu

5L. Brunt

14A. Famewo

18E. Toal

22Gaizka Larrazabal

8J. Sheehan

11T. Gale

16S. Iling-Junior

17A. Ito

21E. Erhahon

9T. Bair

Bench

J. Bonham, B. Davies, M. Conway, X. Simons, S. Dalby, Ruben Rodrigues, J. Nelson, R. Hardie

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Wolves win.

%67Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 7.Missed

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%60

Both score%53

Not both score%47

Under 2.5%40

Draw%20

Bolton win%13

Why?

Wolves · last 10 at home: 5 wins5/10

Bolton · last 10 away: 5 defeats5/10

Wolves won 5 of their last 10 home matches.
Wolves scored 1.7 and conceded 1.0 per game in their last 10 home matches.
Bolton scored 1.0 and conceded 1.6 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Wolves: 10 games · Bolton: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.8Goals scored (avg)1.1

0.9Goals conceded (avg)1.5

2.7Total goals per gameleague 2.92.6

10/10Over 0.5league %948/10

8/10Over 1.5league %776/10

5/10Over 2.5league %624/10

3/10Over 3.5league %394/10

1/10Over 4.5league %162/10

6/10Both scoreleague %624/10

4/10Clean sheets3/10

0/10Failed to score5/10

Wolves: 10 games · Bolton: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.2Goals scored (avg)1.6

0.9Goals conceded (avg)2.4

2.1Total goals per gameleague 2.94.0

10/10Over 0.5league %949/10

5/10Over 1.5league %778/10

4/10Over 2.5league %628/10

2/10Over 3.5league %397/10

0/10Over 4.5league %165/10

4/10Both scoreleague %627/10

4/10Clean sheets2/10

2/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%28 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Wolves win 521, 201 end level and Bolton win 279. The actual result comes up 279 times in 1000.

2.27 – 1.64 The score the chances deserved (xG): Wolves 2.27 – 1.64 Bolton.

%13 Our model's pre-match chance of an Bolton win.

9 – 3 Corners: Wolves 9 – 3 Bolton.

1 more numbers for this match in Premium

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

Last 5 matches

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Previous meetings

Model chances

Wolves · Championship

Bolton · Championship

Wolves · All games

Bolton · All games

Statistics

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match