Brentford – Nottingham Forest: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Premier League · England · Matchday 9

BrentfordPremier League · #6

2-0Saturday, October 31

Nottingham ForestPremier League · #18

Match events

BrentfordNottingham Forest

30'⚽Nikola MilenkovićOwn goal
36'Nikola Milenković
45'⇄Daniel MuñozOff: Ola Aina
45'⇄Ryan YatesOff: Xaver Schlager
62'⇄Mikkel DamsgaardOff: Mathias Jensen
62'⇄Aaron HickeyOff: Mamadou Sangare

Chances to win

Brentford%44

Draw%26

Nottingham Forest%30

At a glance

Over 1.5

%56Over 2.5

%59Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%56Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Missed

Other scenarios

Both score%59

Brentford win%44

Under 2.5%44

Not both score%41

Nottingham Forest win%30

Draw%26

Why?

Brentford: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

BrentfordL2-3D1-1L1-2D2-2W3-0

Nottingham ForestD1-1L0-1L1-3L0-1W2-1

Last 15 meetings

6Brentford won

3Draw

6Nottingham Forest won

2.6
Goals per game7/15
Over 2.59/15
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Brentford · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Nottingham Forest · last 10 away3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Brentford · last 10 at home4.7 corners, 1.5 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners4/10Over 5.5 corners

Nottingham Forest · last 10 away4.0 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners3/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards6/10

Bench

H. Valdimarsson, A. Hickey, N. Collins, E. Diouf, Jannik Schuster, M. Damsgaard, C. Wilson, J. Anthony, Gustavo Gomes

Nottingham Forest · 3-4-2-1

26M. Sels

5Murillo

23Jair

31N. Milenković

3N. Williams

10M. Gibbs-White

14D. Ndoye

21X. Schlager

24J. McAtee

34O. Aina

19L. Delap

Bench

John, O. Diomande, L. Netz, D. Muñoz, I. Sangaré, R. Yates, C. Hudson-Odoi, C. Wood, A. Kalimuendo

Brentford – Nottingham ForestJanuary 20, 2024 · Premier League3-2

Nottingham Forest – BrentfordOctober 1, 2023 · Premier League1-1

Brentford – Nottingham ForestApril 29, 2023 · Premier League2-1

Nottingham Forest – BrentfordNovember 5, 2022 · Premier League2-2

Brentford – Nottingham ForestMarch 20, 2021 · Championship1-1

Nottingham Forest – BrentfordDecember 12, 2020 · Championship1-3

Brentford – Nottingham ForestJanuary 28, 2020 · Championship0-1

Nottingham Forest – BrentfordOctober 5, 2019 · Championship1-0

Nottingham Forest – BrentfordFebruary 9, 2019 · Championship2-1

Brentford – Nottingham ForestSeptember 1, 2018 · Championship2-1

Nottingham Forest – BrentfordApril 10, 2018 · Championship0-1

65'⇄Chris WoodOff: Liam Delap

65'⇄Arnaud KalimuendoOff: Dan Ndoye

72'⇄Jaidon AnthonyOff: Dango Ouattara

76'⚽Igor ThiagoAssist: Jaidon Anthony

84'⇄Callum WilsonOff: Kevin Schade

Statistics

42%Possession58%

0.51Expected goals0.87

7Total shots15

1Shots on target1

3Corners4

6Fouls17

1Offsides1

1Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

1Saves0

Nottingham Forest: 3+ goals in 8 of their last 10 away matches.

Brentford scored 1.7 and conceded 1.1 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Nottingham Forest scored 2.0 and conceded 1.6 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Brentford · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 7 times7/10

Nottingham Forest · last 10 away: 3+ goals 8 times8/10

Brentford: 10 games · Nottingham Forest: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.7Goals scored (avg)2.0

1.1Goals conceded (avg)1.6

2.8Total goals per gameleague 2.83.6

9/10Over 0.5league %9310/10

9/10Over 1.5league %7610/10

7/10Over 2.5league %508/10

3/10Over 3.5league %316/10

0/10Over 4.5league %182/10

5/10Both scoreleague %507/10

4/10Clean sheets2/10

2/10Failed to score1/10

Brentford: 10 games · Nottingham Forest: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.1Goals scored (avg)0.7

1.4Goals conceded (avg)1.3

3.5Total goals per gameleague 2.82.0

10/10Over 0.5league %939/10

10/10Over 1.5league %766/10

7/10Over 2.5league %503/10

4/10Over 3.5league %312/10

2/10Over 4.5league %180/10

9/10Both scoreleague %505/10

1/10Clean sheets1/10

0/10Failed to score5/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%20 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Brentford win 204, 376 end level and Nottingham Forest win 420. The actual result comes up 204 times in 1000.

0.51 – 0.87 The score the chances deserved (xG): Brentford 0.51 – 0.87 Nottingham Forest.

7 – 15 Shots: Brentford 7 – 15 Nottingham Forest.

7.8

Man of the match: Thiago (Brentford), rated 7.8.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 15 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Brentford · Premier League

Nottingham Forest · Premier League

Brentford · All games

Nottingham Forest · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Brentford's ground

Last 15 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match