Crystal Palace – Nottingham Forest: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Premier League · England · Matchday 6

Crystal PalacePremier League · #18

3-1Sunday, October 11

Nottingham ForestPremier League · #19

Match events

Crystal PalaceNottingham Forest

3'⚽Dan Ndoye
16'Jefferson Lerma
41'⚽Daichi KamadaAssist: Quinten Timber
45+4'⚽Jefferson LermaAssist: Adam Wharton
59'⚽Yeremy Pino
60'Yeremy Pino
66'⇄

Chances to win

Crystal Palace%36

Draw%28

Nottingham Forest%36

At a glance

Over 1.5

%51Over 2.5

%56Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

Last 5 matches

Crystal PalaceD0-0W4-0L2-3W3-0W3-2

Nottingham ForestL0-1W2-1D0-0D2-2L

Last 8 meetings

0Crystal Palace won

6Draw

2Nottingham Forest won

1.5
Goals per game0/8
Over 2.55/8
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Crystal Palace · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Nottingham Forest · last 10 away3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Crystal Palace · last 10 at home3.4 corners, 0.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners3/10Over 5.5 corners

Nottingham Forest · last 10 away3.9 corners, 2.4 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners4/10Over 4.5 corners4/10Over 5.5 corners3/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards7/10

Bench

R. Matthews, H. Ahanor, Óscar Mingueza, W. Hughes, C. Doucouré, I. Sarr, E. Nketiah, D. McNeil, E. Guessand

Nottingham Forest · 3-4-2-1

26M. Sels

2O. Diomande

5Murillo

34O. Aina

3N. Williams

10M. Gibbs-White

14D. Ndoye

21X. Schlager

24J. McAtee

27D. Muñoz

19L. Delap

Bench

John, Jair, L. Netz, I. Sangaré, N. Domínguez, R. Yates, C. Hudson-Odoi, C. Wood, A. Kalimuendo

Nottingham Forest – Crystal PalaceMarch 30, 2024 · Premier League1-1

Crystal Palace – Nottingham ForestOctober 7, 2023 · Premier League0-0

Crystal Palace – Nottingham ForestMay 28, 2023 · Premier League1-1

Nottingham Forest – Crystal PalaceNovember 12, 2022 · Premier League1-0

72'⇄Callum Hudson-OdoiOff: Dan Ndoye

72'⇄Chris WoodOff: Liam Delap

72'⇄Honest AhanorOff: Jefferson Lerma

83'⇄Ismaila SarrOff: Yeremy Pino

83'⇄Eddie NketiahOff: Jörgen Strand Larsen

83'⇄Arnaud KalimuendoOff: Ola Aina

90'⇄Dwight McNeilOff: Daichi Kamada

90+4'Murillo Santiago

Statistics

43%Possession57%

2.42Expected goals2.95

13Total shots24

7Shots on target6

5Corners8

11Fouls10

2Offsides1

2Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

4Saves4

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%56Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%51

Under 2.5%49

Not both score%44

Nottingham Forest win%36

Crystal Palace win%36

Draw%28

Why?

Crystal Palace · last 10 at home: both scored 6 times6/10

Nottingham Forest · last 10 away: both scored 7 times7/10

Crystal Palace: both sides scored in 6 of their last 10 home matches.
Nottingham Forest: both sides scored in 7 of their last 10 away matches.
Crystal Palace scored 1.8 and conceded 1.3 per game in their last 10 home matches.
Nottingham Forest scored 2.2 and conceded 1.5 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Crystal Palace: 10 games · Nottingham Forest: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.9Goals scored (avg)1.7

1.5Goals conceded (avg)1.8

3.4Total goals per gameleague 2.73.5

10/10Over 0.5league %9310/10

9/10Over 1.5league %7710/10

8/10Over 2.5league %487/10

5/10Over 3.5league %316/10

2/10Over 4.5league %162/10

6/10Both scoreleague %497/10

3/10Clean sheets1/10

1/10Failed to score2/10

Crystal Palace: 10 games · Nottingham Forest: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.4Goals scored (avg)0.6

1.8Goals conceded (avg)1.4

3.2Total goals per gameleague 2.72.0

9/10Over 0.5league %939/10

8/10Over 1.5league %776/10

6/10Over 2.5league %483/10

6/10Over 3.5league %312/10

3/10Over 4.5league %160/10

4/10Both scoreleague %494/10

3/10Clean sheets1/10

4/10Failed to score6/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%33 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Crystal Palace win 325, 173 end level and Nottingham Forest win 502. The actual result comes up 325 times in 1000.

2.42 – 2.95 The score the chances deserved (xG): Crystal Palace 2.42 – 2.95 Nottingham Forest.

8.1

Man of the match: Yeremy Pino (Crystal Palace), rated 8.1.

%36 Our model's pre-match chance of a Crystal Palace win.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

Last 5 matches

Last 8 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Crystal Palace's ground

Last 8 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Crystal Palace · Premier League

Nottingham Forest · Premier League

Crystal Palace · All games

Nottingham Forest · All games

Statistics

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match