Brentford – Liverpool: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Premier League · England · Matchday 7

BrentfordPremier League · #6

1-2Saturday, October 17

LiverpoolPremier League · #4

Match events

BrentfordLiverpool

31'Bradley Barcola
32'⇄Treymaurice NyoniOff: Dominik Szoboszlai
41'VARAlexis Mac AllisterPenalty cancelled
44'⚽Keane Lewis-PotterAssist: Igor Thiago
45'⇄Jeremie FrimpongOff: Ronald Araujo
45'⇄Kevin SchadeOff: Dango Ouattara

Chances to win

Brentford%39

Draw%26

Liverpool%35

At a glance

Over 1.5

%60Over 2.5

%63Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%60Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%63

Under 2.5%40

Brentford win%39

Not both score%37

Liverpool win%35

Draw%26

Why?

Brentford: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

BrentfordD2-2W3-0W2-1D2-2D1-1

LiverpoolW6-3L0-3W1-0W3-1D0-0

Last 8 meetings

2Brentford won

1Draw

5Liverpool won

3.0
Goals per game4/8
Over 2.54/8
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Brentford · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Liverpool · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Brentford · last 10 at home5.0 corners, 1.4 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners

Liverpool · last 10 away5.1 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners5/10Over 0.5 cards8/10Over 1.5 cards7/10

Bench

H. Valdimarsson, A. Hickey, N. Collins, E. Diouf, K. Schade, Fábio Carvalho, M. Sangaré, M. Damsgaard, C. Wilson

Liverpool · 4-2-3-1

1Alisson Becker

4V. van Dijk

5J. Jacquet

6M. Kerkez

33R. Araújo

7F. Wirtz

8D. Szoboszlai

10A. Mac Allister

23Víctor Muñoz

29B. Barcola

9A. Isak

Bench

G. Mamardashvili, J. Gomez, K. Tsimikas, J. Frimpong, W. Endo, T. Nyoni, C. Gakpo, L. Koumas, R. Ngumoha

Brentford – LiverpoolFebruary 17, 2024 · Premier League1-4

Liverpool – BrentfordNovember 12, 2023 · Premier League3-0

Liverpool – BrentfordMay 6, 2023 · Premier League1-0

Brentford – LiverpoolJanuary 2, 2023 · Premier League3-1

45'⇄Mamadou SangareOff: Mathias Jensen

45+5'VARYehor YarmoliukCard upgrade confirmed

45+8'Yehor Yarmoliuk

52'⇄Rio NgumohaOff: Jeremie Frimpong

53'Alexis Mac Allister

62'⚽Víctor MuñozAssist: Florian Wirtz

70'⚽Alexander IsakAssist: Bradley Barcola

71'⇄Aaron HickeyOff: Sepp van den Berg

77'⇄Mikkel DamsgaardOff: Jaidon Anthony

77'⇄El Hadji Malick DioufOff: Keane Lewis-Potter

79'⇄Joe GomezOff: Víctor Muñoz

79'⇄Lewis KoumasOff: Alexander Isak

Statistics

40%Possession60%

0.9Expected goals1.54

10Total shots21

2Shots on target5

3Corners9

7Fouls13

1Offsides2

2Yellow cards3

2Red cards0

3Saves1

Liverpool: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 away matches.

Brentford scored 1.7 and conceded 1.0 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Liverpool scored 1.8 and conceded 2.1 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Brentford · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

Liverpool · last 10 away: 3+ goals 7 times7/10

Brentford: 10 games · Liverpool: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.7Goals scored (avg)1.9

1.1Goals conceded (avg)2.0

2.8Total goals per gameleague 2.83.9

9/10Over 0.5league %9310/10

9/10Over 1.5league %769/10

7/10Over 2.5league %507/10

3/10Over 3.5league %315/10

0/10Over 4.5league %183/10

5/10Both scoreleague %506/10

4/10Clean sheets2/10

2/10Failed to score2/10

Brentford: 10 games · Liverpool: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.1Goals scored (avg)2.1

1.4Goals conceded (avg)1.3

3.5Total goals per gameleague 2.83.4

10/10Over 0.5league %939/10

10/10Over 1.5league %768/10

7/10Over 2.5league %506/10

4/10Over 3.5league %313/10

2/10Over 4.5league %182/10

9/10Both scoreleague %506/10

1/10Clean sheets3/10

0/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

Brentford: a 8-match unbeaten run ended here.

%52 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Brentford win 220, 257 end level and Liverpool win 523. The actual result comes up 523 times in 1000.

0.90 – 1.54 The score the chances deserved (xG): Brentford 0.90 – 1.54 Liverpool.

10 – 21 Shots: Brentford 10 – 21 Liverpool.

3 more numbers for this match in Premium

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 8 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Brentford · Premier League

Liverpool · Premier League

Brentford · All games

Liverpool · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Brentford's ground

Last 8 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match