Motherwell – Heart Of Midlothian: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Premiership · Scotland · Matchday 10

MotherwellPremier League · #10

0-2Sunday, October 25

Heart Of MidlothianPremier League · #3

Match events

MotherwellHeart Of Midlothian

24'Malachi Walcott
29'⚽Claudio Rafael Soares BragaAssist: Sabah Kerjota
41'Tom Sparrow
57'Sabah Kerjota
59'Jamie McCart
61'⇄Jamie·Knight LebelOff: Martin Moormann

Chances to win

Motherwell%30

Draw%26

Heart Of Midlothian%44

At a glance

Over 1.5

%57Over 2.5

%60Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%60Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Missed

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%57

Heart Of Midlothian win%44

Under 2.5%43

Not both score%40

Motherwell win%30

Draw%26

Why?

Motherwell: both sides scored in 4 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

MotherwellL2-3L0-2L1-2L0-4L0-1

Heart Of MidlothianL0-2L1-7D1-1W5-0D1-1

Last 15 meetings

4Motherwell won

4Draw

7Heart Of Midlothian won

2.6
Goals per game8/15
Over 2.57/15
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Motherwell · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Heart Of Midlothian · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).6/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Motherwell · last 9 at home3.9 corners, 1.7 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners4/9Over 4.5 corners3/9Over 5.5 corners

Heart Of Midlothian · last 9 away5.3 corners, 2.7 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/9Over 4.5 corners5/9Over 5.5 corners5/9Over 0.5 cards8/9Over 1.5 cards7/9

Bench

R. Fulton, C. Miller, J. Williams, P. Kabore, S. Guendouz, A. Benjaminsen, Y. Dhanda, R. Mato, A. Ba-Sy

August 23, 2025 · Premiership

Heart Of Midlothian – MotherwellMay 10, 2025 · Premiership3-0

Motherwell – Heart Of MidlothianApril 12, 2025 · Premiership0-0

Heart Of Midlothian – MotherwellJanuary 2, 2025 · Premiership1-0

Motherwell – Heart Of MidlothianAugust 25, 2024 · Premiership3-1

Heart Of Midlothian – MotherwellFebruary 17, 2024 · Premiership2-0

Motherwell – Heart Of MidlothianNovember 11, 2023 · Premiership1-2

Heart Of Midlothian – MotherwellSeptember 3, 2023 · Premiership0-1

Motherwell – Heart Of MidlothianFebruary 19, 2023 · Premiership2-0

Heart Of Midlothian – MotherwellNovember 6, 2022 · Premiership3-2

Motherwell – Heart Of MidlothianSeptember 18, 2022 · Premiership0-3

Motherwell – Heart Of MidlothianMay 11, 2022 · Premiership2-1

Laurent mendyOff: Tomas Bent Magnusson

65'⇄Calvin MillerOff: Sabah Kerjota

65'⇄Jardell KangaOff: Jordan McGhee

65'⇄Eythor BjørgolfssonOff: Sebastian Palmer-Houlden

81'Tawanda Maswanhise

82'⇄Stephen O'DonnellOff: Tom Sparrow

87'⇄Yan DhandaOff: James wilson

88'⇄Jerome WilliamsOff: Claudio Rafael Soares Braga

90+1'⇄Severin Sabri GuendouzOff: Josh Mcpake

Statistics

53%Possession47%

1.34Expected goals1.12

17Total shots14

5Shots on target5

6Corners5

15Fouls10

0Offsides1

3Yellow cards5

0Red cards0

3Saves5

Heart Of Midlothian: both sides scored in 7 of their last 10 away matches.

Motherwell scored 1.3 and conceded 1.6 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Heart Of Midlothian scored 1.2 and conceded 2.6 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Heart Of Midlothian · last 10 away: both scored 7 times7/10

Motherwell: 10 games · Heart Of Midlothian: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.1Goals scored (avg)1.4

1.5Goals conceded (avg)2.2

2.6Total goals per gameleague 2.83.6

9/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

9/10Over 1.5league %7910/10

4/10Over 2.5league %596/10

3/10Over 3.5league %293/10

1/10Over 4.5league %112/10

3/10Both scoreleague %587/10

4/10Clean sheets2/10

4/10Failed to score1/10

Motherwell: 10 games · Heart Of Midlothian: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.2Goals scored (avg)1.8

2.3Goals conceded (avg)1.6

3.5Total goals per gameleague 2.83.4

10/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

9/10Over 1.5league %7910/10

7/10Over 2.5league %596/10

5/10Over 3.5league %293/10

3/10Over 4.5league %112/10

5/10Both scoreleague %586/10

1/10Clean sheets3/10

4/10Failed to score1/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%31 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Motherwell win 417, 271 end level and Heart Of Midlothian win 312. The actual result comes up 312 times in 1000.

1.34 – 1.12 The score the chances deserved (xG): Motherwell 1.34 – 1.12 Heart Of Midlothian.

8.2

Man of the match: Cláudio Braga (Heart Of Midlothian), rated 8.2.

%44 Our model's pre-match chance of an Heart Of Midlothian win.

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 15 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Motherwell · Premiership

Heart Of Midlothian · Premiership

Motherwell · All games

Heart Of Midlothian · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Motherwell's ground

Last 15 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match