The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Heart Of Midlothian win.
%63Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓
Other scenarios
Over 2.5%60
Both score%55
Not both score%45
Under 2.5%40
Draw%21
ST Mirren win%16
Why?
Heart Of Midlothian won 7 of their last 10 home matches.
Last 5 matches
Heart Of MidlothianD1-1L1-2W3-0W2-1W3-1
ST MirrenL0-3L0-1L1-2W1-0D3-3
Last 15 meetings
6Heart Of Midlothian won
5Draw
4ST Mirren won
2.6 Goals per game7/15 Over 2.58/15 Both score
Handicap and HT/FT history
By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.
Heart Of Midlothian · last 10 at home4/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 4 games it led at half-time.
ST Mirren · last 10 away4/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).6/10games led at half-time.Won 5 of the 6 games it led at half-time.
Corners and cards
Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.
Heart Of Midlothian · last 8 at home6.8 corners, 0.9 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/8Over 4.5 corners6/8Over 5.5 corners5/8Over 0.5 cards
Referee
N. Walsh4.2 cards a match in 53 recorded games
Premium members onlyLikely scores, likely scorers, corner, card and half chances.
Heart Of Midlothian · Premiership
5W 2D 3LScored 19 · conceded 122.5 Üst 8/10KG 8/10
ST Mirren · Premiership
4W 3D 3LScored 11 · conceded 112.5 Üst 3/10KG 4/10
Heart Of Midlothian · All games
5W 4D 1LScored 22 · conceded 122.5 Üst 7/10KG 9/10
ST Mirren · All games
4W 1D 5LScored 13 · conceded 182.5 Üst 5/10KG 4/10
Missing players
No absentees reported
Starting line-ups
Heart Of Midlothian · 4-2-3-1
1B. Reus
5J. McCart
18H. Milne
23J. Altena
64M. Fagan-Walcott
7C. Miller
8Ageu
10Cláudio Braga
15J. McPake
78L. Mendy
21J. Wilson
Bench
R. Fulton, C. Borchgrevink, S. Findlay, O. McEntee, T. Magnússon, J. Williams, S. Guendouz, S. Kerjota, R. Mato
ST Mirren · 4-2-3-1
1J. Chapman
3D. John
This fixture at Heart Of Midlothian's ground
The meetings the home side hosted, of the last 6
5Heart Of Midlothian won
0Draw
1ST Mirren won
Heart Of Midlothian last won here on Jan 14, 2026: Heart Of Midlothian 2-0 ST Mirren.ST Mirren last won here on Apr 8, 2023: Heart Of Midlothian 0-2 ST Mirren.2.5 goals a game here · over 2.5 2/6 · BTTS 1/6
Last 15 meetings
6Heart Of Midlothian won
5Draw
4ST Mirren won
2.6 Goals per game7/15 Over 2.58/15 Both score
Previous meetings
ST Mirren – Heart Of MidlothianFebruary 3, 2026 · Premiership1-0
Heart Of Midlothian – ST MirrenJanuary 14, 2026 · Premiership2-0
ST Mirren – Heart Of MidlothianOctober 29, 2025 · Premiership2-2
ST Mirren – Heart Of Midlothian
6/8
Over 1.5 cards1/8
ST Mirren · last 5 away3.4 corners, 2.2 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners2/5Over 4.5 corners2/5Over 5.5 corners2/5Over 0.5 cards5/5Over 1.5 cards4/5
Heart Of Midlothian: 10 games · ST Mirren: 10 games · league average in grey
Goals
2.5Goals scored (avg)1.6
1.2Goals conceded (avg)1.5
3.7Total goals per gameleague 2.83.1
10/10Over 0.5league %9710/10
10/10Over 1.5league %798/10
7/10Over 2.5league %595/10
5/10Over 3.5league %295/10
2/10Over 4.5league %112/10
7/10Both scoreleague %583/10
2/10Clean sheets5/10
1/10Failed to score2/10
Heart Of Midlothian: 10 games · ST Mirren: 10 games · league average in grey
Goals
1.8Goals scored (avg)1.0
1.6Goals conceded (avg)2.4
3.4Total goals per gameleague 2.83.4
10/10Over 0.5league %9710/10
10/10Over 1.5league %798/10
6/10Over 2.5league %597/10
3/10Over 3.5league %294/10
2/10Over 4.5league %113/10
6/10Both scoreleague %586/10
3/10Clean sheets1/10
1/10Failed to score3/10
The real story of the match
What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.
3.51 – 0.74 The score the chances deserved (xG): Heart Of Midlothian 3.51 – 0.74 ST Mirren.
%87 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Heart Of Midlothian win 873, 84 end level and ST Mirren win 43. The actual result comes up 873 times in 1000.
18 – 8 Shots: Heart Of Midlothian 18 – 8 ST Mirren.
6 – 1 Shots on target: Heart Of Midlothian 6 – 1 ST Mirren.