Motor Lublin – Zaglebie Lubin: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Ekstraklasa · Poland · Matchday 12

Motor LublinEkstraklasa · #10

2-2Friday, October 23

Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa · #7

Match events

Motor LublinZaglebie Lubin

25'Yacine Bourhane
28'David Čolina
45'⇄Damian MichalskiOff: David Čolina
45+1'⚽Sebastian Kerk
48'⚽Marcel RegulaAssist: Michał Nalepa
56'⇄Mateusz LegowskiOff: Yacine Bourhane
56'

Chances to win

Motor Lublin%47

Draw%26

Zaglebie Lubin%27

At a glance

Over 1.5

%55Over 2.5

%58Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%58Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%55

Motor Lublin win%47

Under 2.5%45

Not both score%42

Zaglebie Lubin win%27

Draw%26

Why?

Motor Lublin: both sides scored in 5 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

Motor LublinW3-2W3-2D0-0L1-2L2-3

Zaglebie LubinW1-0L1-3L0-2W3-2W2-1

Last 5 meetings

3Motor Lublin won

2Draw

0Zaglebie Lubin won

1.8
Goals per game2/5
Over 2.52/5
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Motor Lublin · last 10 at home1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Zaglebie Lubin · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 0 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Motor Lublin · last 9 at home4.6 corners, 1.4 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/9Over 4.5 corners4/9Over 5.5 corners3/9

Zaglebie Lubin · last 9 away2.7 corners, 2.4 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners3/9Over 4.5 corners1/9Over 5.5 corners0/9Over 0.5 cards8/9Over 1.5 cards7/9

Bench

D. Hładun, D. Michalski, M. Grzybek, I. Orlikowski, M. Urbanski, J. Sypek, A. Woźniak, S. Łyczko, J. Kolan, C. Popielec, F. Szymczak, M. Mlinarić

Motor Lublin – Zaglebie LubinOctober 19, 2022 · Cup0-0

Fabio Ronaldo Costa ConceicaoOff: Makan Aiko

66'⇄Jakub·SypekOff: Mateusz Dziewiatowski

66'⇄Filip SzymczakOff: Sebastian Kerk

72'⇄Alioune Oumar TallOff: Christopher Simon

72'⇄Thomas SantosOff: Kamil Lukoszek

74'⚽Mateusz Legowski

75'⇄Mateusz GrzybekOff: Marcel Regula

85'⇄Mateusz PosmykOff: Filip Luberecki

87'⚽Mbaye Jacques Ndiaye

90+1'Mateusz Grzybek

90+5'⇄Mihael MlinarićOff: Josip Ćorluka

Statistics

58%Possession42%

2.22Expected goals0.6

25Total shots10

7Shots on target3

8Corners2

8Fouls5

1Offsides4

2Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

1Saves5

Zaglebie Lubin: both sides scored in 6 of their last 10 away matches.

Motor Lublin scored 1.4 and conceded 1.4 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Zaglebie Lubin scored 1.1 and conceded 1.7 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Motor Lublin · last 10 at home: both scored 5 times5/10

Zaglebie Lubin · last 10 away: both scored 6 times6/10

Motor Lublin: 10 games · Zaglebie Lubin: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.6Goals scored (avg)1.2

1.5Goals conceded (avg)1.6

3.1Total goals per gameleague 2.92.8

9/10Over 0.5league %929/10

8/10Over 1.5league %827/10

6/10Over 2.5league %595/10

4/10Over 3.5league %315/10

3/10Over 4.5league %192/10

6/10Both scoreleague %656/10

3/10Clean sheets2/10

2/10Failed to score3/10

Motor Lublin: 10 games · Zaglebie Lubin: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.7Goals scored (avg)1.2

1.5Goals conceded (avg)1.4

3.2Total goals per gameleague 2.92.6

9/10Over 0.5league %928/10

9/10Over 1.5league %827/10

7/10Over 2.5league %595/10

4/10Over 3.5league %314/10

3/10Over 4.5league %192/10

7/10Both scoreleague %656/10

2/10Clean sheets3/10

2/10Failed to score3/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%17 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Motor Lublin win 745, 170 end level and Zaglebie Lubin win 85. The actual result comes up 170 times in 1000.

%26 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

2.22 – 0.60 The score the chances deserved (xG): Motor Lublin 2.22 – 0.60 Zaglebie Lubin.

25 – 10 Shots: Motor Lublin 25 – 10 Zaglebie Lubin.

2 more numbers for this match in Premium

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 5 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Motor Lublin · Ekstraklasa

Zaglebie Lubin · Ekstraklasa

Motor Lublin · All games

Zaglebie Lubin · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Motor Lublin's ground

Last 5 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match