Zaglebie Lubin – Jagiellonia: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Ekstraklasa · Poland · Matchday 11

Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa · #7

1-0Sunday, October 18

JagielloniaEkstraklasa · #11

Match events

Zaglebie LubinJagiellonia

15'Mateusz Grzybek
45'⇄David ČolinaOff: Mateusz Grzybek
45'⇄Cezary PolakOff: Bartlomiej Wdowik
45'⇄Rodrigo ConceiçãoOff: Kamil Jóźwiak
62'⇄Dimitris RallisOff: Ousmane Sow
63'⇄Jakub·SypekOff: Filip Szymczak

Chances to win

Zaglebie Lubin%38

Draw%27

Jagiellonia%36

At a glance

Over 1.5

%54Over 2.5

%58Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%58Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Missed

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%54

Under 2.5%46

Not both score%42

Zaglebie Lubin win%38

Jagiellonia win%36

Draw%27

Why?

Zaglebie Lubin: both sides scored in 3 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

Zaglebie LubinL1-3L0-2W3-2W2-1D1-1

JagielloniaW3-1L1-3L1-3L1-2L0-2

Last 8 meetings

1Zaglebie Lubin won

3Draw

4Jagiellonia won

2.6
Goals per game5/8
Over 2.55/8
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Zaglebie Lubin · last 10 at home1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Jagiellonia · last 10 away3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Zaglebie Lubin · last 10 at home4.3 corners, 2.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners

Jagiellonia · last 9 away3.3 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners4/9Over 4.5 corners2/9Over 5.5 corners2/9Over 0.5 cards8/9Over 1.5 cards5/9

Bench

M. Perchel, C. Polak, Guilherme Manuel Serrão Montóia, Rodrigo Conceição, A. Konstantopoulos, D. Drachal, H. Finndell, J. Kucharski, Eryk Kozlowski, Dimitris Rallis, J. Agbonifo, A. Ćirković

Zaglebie Lubin – JagielloniaApril 20, 2024 · Ekstraklasa1-2

Jagiellonia – Zaglebie LubinOctober 20, 2023 · Ekstraklasa3-0

Jagiellonia – Zaglebie LubinMarch 18, 2023 · Ekstraklasa2-2

Zaglebie Lubin – JagielloniaSeptember 4, 2022 · Ekstraklasa1-1

69'⇄Jeremy AgbonifoOff: Dušan Stojinović

72'VARMarcel RegulaPenalty confirmed

77'⚽Sebastian KerkPenalty

83'⇄Mateusz DziewiatowskiOff: Sebastian Kerk

88'⇄Aleksandar·CirkovicOff: Bernardo Vital

90+6'⇄Damian MichalskiOff: Josip Ćorluka

Statistics

36%Possession64%

1.96Expected goals1.46

12Total shots15

4Shots on target3

5Corners3

11Fouls13

1Offsides0

2Yellow cards1

0Red cards0

3Saves2

Jagiellonia: both sides scored in 7 of their last 10 away matches.

Zaglebie Lubin scored 0.8 and conceded 0.8 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Jagiellonia scored 1.9 and conceded 1.3 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Jagiellonia · last 10 away: both scored 7 times7/10

Zaglebie Lubin: 10 games · Jagiellonia: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

0.9Goals scored (avg)2.0

0.7Goals conceded (avg)1.4

1.6Total goals per gameleague 2.93.4

8/10Over 0.5league %9210/10

5/10Over 1.5league %829/10

3/10Over 2.5league %597/10

0/10Over 3.5league %313/10

0/10Over 4.5league %192/10

3/10Both scoreleague %657/10

5/10Clean sheets1/10

4/10Failed to score2/10

Zaglebie Lubin: 10 games · Jagiellonia: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.2Goals scored (avg)1.5

1.4Goals conceded (avg)1.6

2.6Total goals per gameleague 2.93.1

8/10Over 0.5league %9210/10

7/10Over 1.5league %828/10

5/10Over 2.5league %597/10

4/10Over 3.5league %314/10

2/10Over 4.5league %191/10

6/10Both scoreleague %655/10

3/10Clean sheets2/10

3/10Failed to score3/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%50 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Zaglebie Lubin win 504, 216 end level and Jagiellonia win 280. The actual result comes up 504 times in 1000.

2.01 – 1.46 The score the chances deserved (xG): Zaglebie Lubin 2.01 – 1.46 Jagiellonia.

7.3

Man of the match: A. Ławniczak (Zaglebie Lubin), rated 7.3.

%38 Our model's pre-match chance of a Zaglebie Lubin win.

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 8 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Zaglebie Lubin · Ekstraklasa

Jagiellonia · Ekstraklasa

Zaglebie Lubin · All games

Jagiellonia · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Zaglebie Lubin's ground

Last 8 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match