Twente – Utrecht: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Eredivisie · Netherlands · Matchday 9

TwenteEredivisie · #4

1-2Sunday, October 18

UtrechtEredivisie · #11

Match events

TwenteUtrecht

28'⚽Daouda WeidmannAssist: Aske Emil Berg Adelgaard
45'⇄Marko PjacaOff: Daan Rots
47'⚽Ángel AlarcónAssist: Arthur Zagre
57'Siebe Horemans
62'⇄Thomas Van den BeltOff: Robin Propper
62'⇄Younes Taha El IdrissiOff: Kristian Nokkvi Hlynsson

Chances to win

Twente%68

Draw%18

Utrecht%14

At a glance

Over 1.5

%67Over 2.5

%59Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Twente win.

%68Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 7.Missed

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%67

Both score%59

Not both score%41

Under 2.5%33

Draw%18

Utrecht win%14

Why?

Twente won 7 of their last 10 home matches.
Twente scored 2.2 and conceded 0.7 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

TwenteW1-0D1-1W3-2W2-0W1-0

UtrechtW3-1L0-5W2-1D3-3L1-6

Last 9 meetings

3Twente won

2Draw

4Utrecht won

2.0
Goals per game2/9
Over 2.54/9
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Twente · last 10 at home4/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Utrecht · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Twente · last 9 at home7.0 corners, 1.2 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/9Over 4.5 corners8/9Over 5.5 corners7/9Over 0.5 cards

Utrecht · last 10 away4.6 corners, 1.6 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners4/10Over 5.5 corners3/10Over 0.5 cards8/10Over 1.5 cards5/10

Bench

R. Pasveer, Yannick Gerritsen, M. Rosiak, K. Kurowski, J. Meilink, Jordy Bawuah, T. van den Belt, M. Pjaca, Y. Taha, F. Thorvaldsen, Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink

Utrecht · 3-4-3

22S. Padt

2S. Horemans

3M. Didden

5N. Panagiotou

8J. van Overeem

23N. Vesterlund

38O. Agougil

92A. Zagré

10Y. Cathline

11Ángel Alarcón

20D. de Wit

Bench

M. Eppink, K. Gadellaa, G. Offerhaus, J. Medić, N. Ogidi Nwankwo, P. Kloosterboer, D. van den Berg, A. Blake, S. van Duijn, N. Amrabat, E. C. Owen

Utrecht – TwenteSeptember 1, 2024 · Eredivisie2-1

Twente – UtrechtFebruary 18, 2024 · Eredivisie0-1

Utrecht – TwenteNovember 5, 2023 · Eredivisie1-1

Utrecht – TwenteApril 16, 2023 · Eredivisie1-0

Twente – UtrechtJanuary 22, 2023 · Eredivisie2-0

Ángel AlarcónAssist: Arthur Zagre

67'⇄Nordin AmrabatOff: Oualid Agougil

67'⇄Davy Van Den BergOff: Siebe Horemans

70'Davy Van Den Berg

76'⇄Adrian BlakeOff: Yoann Cathline

76'⇄S. van DuijnOff: Ángel Alarcón

76'⇄Lucas hesselink of vennegoorOff: Aske Emil Berg Adelgaard

Statistics

63%Possession37%

1.36Expected goals1.25

24Total shots16

5Shots on target5

5Corners4

11Fouls11

0Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

2Saves4

Utrecht scored 1.3 and conceded 2.1 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Twente · last 10 at home: 7 wins7/10

Twente: 10 games · Utrecht: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.2Goals scored (avg)1.4

0.8Goals conceded (avg)2.2

3.0Total goals per gameleague 3.83.6

10/10Over 0.5league %999/10

7/10Over 1.5league %918/10

6/10Over 2.5league %738/10

4/10Over 3.5league %614/10

2/10Over 4.5league %324/10

4/10Both scoreleague %726/10

5/10Clean sheets2/10

1/10Failed to score3/10

Twente: 10 games · Utrecht: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.1Goals scored (avg)1.7

0.9Goals conceded (avg)2.5

3.0Total goals per gameleague 3.84.2

10/10Over 0.5league %9910/10

8/10Over 1.5league %919/10

5/10Over 2.5league %738/10

4/10Over 3.5league %616/10

3/10Over 4.5league %325/10

6/10Both scoreleague %728/10

4/10Clean sheets1/10

0/10Failed to score1/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

Twente: a 8-match unbeaten run ended here.

%34 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Twente win 394, 263 end level and Utrecht win 343. The actual result comes up 343 times in 1000.

%14 Our model's pre-match chance of an Utrecht win.

1.36 – 1.25 The score the chances deserved (xG): Twente 1.36 – 1.25 Utrecht.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 9 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Twente · Eredivisie

Utrecht · Eredivisie

Twente · All games

Utrecht · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Twente's ground

Last 9 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match