NAC Breda – Heracles: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Eerste Divisie · Netherlands · Matchday 12

NAC BredaEerste Divisie: Regular season · #6

1-1Friday, October 23

HeraclesEerste Divisie: Regular season · #1

Match events

NAC BredaHeracles

3'Sem Scheperman
11'⚽Charles-Andreas Brym
19'⚽Tristan Van GilstPenalty
27'⇄Brahim GhalidiOff: Charles-Andreas Brym
29'Djevencio van der Kust
39'David Vicente
45'

Chances to win

NAC Breda%36

Draw%25

Heracles%39

At a glance

Over 1.5

%65Over 2.5

%67Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%65Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 7.Missed

Other scenarios

Both score%67

Heracles win%39

NAC Breda win%36

Under 2.5%35

Not both score%33

Draw%25

Why?

NAC Breda: 3+ goals in 4 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

NAC BredaW2-0W1-0D2-2W4-2W2-1

HeraclesW5-1W3-0D2-2W2-0L0-1

Last 15 meetings

6NAC Breda won

1Draw

8Heracles won

3.5
Goals per game11/15
Over 2.511/15
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

NAC Breda · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).6/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 6 games it led at half-time.

Heracles · last 10 away3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

NAC Breda · last 10 at home7.9 corners, 1.4 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners9/10Over 4.5 corners8/10Over 5.5 corners8/10Over 0.5 cards

Heracles · last 10 away6.5 corners, 2.5 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners6/10Over 0.5 cards8/10Over 1.5 cards7/10

Bench

T. Jansink, L. Zeevalkink, M. Benita, Mario Borac, M. te Wierik, S. Bultman, D. Tomić, M. Engels, T. Bruns, J. Reine-Adélaïde, D. van Kaam, V. Poppler

Heracles – NAC BredaNovember 2, 2024 · Eredivisie2-0

NAC Breda – HeraclesMay 12, 2023 · Eerste Divisie0-3

Heracles – NAC BredaNovember 11, 2022 · Eerste Divisie5-1

Heracles – NAC BredaApril 6, 2019 · Eredivisie1-0

NAC Breda – HeraclesNovember 3, 2018 · Eredivisie2-1

NAC Breda – HeraclesFebruary 7, 2018 · Eredivisie6-1

Heracles – NAC BredaNovember 25, 2017 · Eredivisie2-1

NAC Breda – HeraclesApril 25, 2015 · Eredivisie1-3

Heracles – NAC BredaOctober 4, 2014 · Eredivisie6-1

Heracles – NAC BredaFebruary 1, 2014 · Eredivisie1-2

NAC Breda – HeraclesOctober 5, 2013 · Eredivisie2-1

Mimeirhel BenitaOff: David Vicente

67'⇄Jeff Reine-AdélaïdeOff: Manny Rodriguez Baldera

68'⇄Mario BoracOff: Sem Scheperman

76'⇄Imran NazihOff: Jannes Van Hecke

80'Jeff Reine-Adélaïde

82'⇄Paul GladonOff: Moussa Soumano

88'⇄David TomicOff: Tristan Van Gilst

88'⇄Mike te WierikOff: Chafik Abbas

Statistics

52%Possession48%

0.93Expected goals1.46

8Total shots10

2Shots on target2

5Corners5

15Fouls20

0Offsides3

1Yellow cards4

0Red cards0

1Saves1

Heracles: 3+ goals in 8 of their last 10 away matches.

NAC Breda scored 1.6 and conceded 1.4 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Heracles scored 2.1 and conceded 2.1 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Heracles · last 10 away: 3+ goals 8 times8/10

NAC Breda: 10 games · Heracles: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.6Goals scored (avg)2.1

1.5Goals conceded (avg)1.5

3.1Total goals per gameleague 3.63.6

9/10Over 0.5league %9810/10

8/10Over 1.5league %867/10

4/10Over 2.5league %686/10

4/10Over 3.5league %445/10

4/10Over 4.5league %283/10

5/10Both scoreleague %706/10

3/10Clean sheets0/10

3/10Failed to score4/10

NAC Breda: 10 games · Heracles: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.1Goals scored (avg)2.4

1.6Goals conceded (avg)0.9

3.7Total goals per gameleague 3.63.3

10/10Over 0.5league %9810/10

9/10Over 1.5league %868/10

7/10Over 2.5league %686/10

6/10Over 3.5league %445/10

3/10Over 4.5league %283/10

8/10Both scoreleague %705/10

2/10Clean sheets3/10

0/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%27 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), NAC Breda win 240, 265 end level and Heracles win 495. The actual result comes up 265 times in 1000.

%25 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

0.93 – 1.46 The score the chances deserved (xG): NAC Breda 0.93 – 1.46 Heracles.

8.1

Man of the match: C. Brym (NAC Breda), rated 8.1.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 15 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

NAC Breda · Eerste Divisie

Heracles · Eerste Divisie

NAC Breda · All games

Heracles · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at NAC Breda's ground

Last 15 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match