NAC Breda – MVV: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Eerste Divisie · Netherlands · Matchday 10

NAC BredaEerste Divisie: Regular season · #6

1-0Friday, October 9

MVVEerste Divisie: Regular season · #10

Match events

NAC BredaMVV

5'⚽Charles-Andreas BrymAssist: Gabriel Osei Misehouy
30'⇄Naim MatougOff: Toni Vinogradac
52'Jan Van den Bergh
53'⇄Brahim GhalidiOff: Gabriel Osei Misehouy
60'⇄Mika LuijendijkOff: Yael Liesdek
61'Robert Klaasen

Chances to win

NAC Breda%72

Draw%17

MVV%11

At a glance

Over 1.5

%68Over 2.5

%56Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is NAC Breda win.

%72Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 7.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%68

Both score%56

Not both score%44

Under 2.5%32

Draw%17

MVV win%11

Why?

NAC Breda won 4 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

NAC BredaD2-2W4-2W2-1L2-3L2-4

MVVL1-4W2-0L1-6L0-4D1-1

Last 6 meetings

4NAC Breda won

0Draw

2MVV won

3.8
Goals per game5/6
Over 2.55/6
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

NAC Breda · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

MVV · last 10 away0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).6/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

NAC Breda · last 10 at home8.5 corners, 1.6 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners10/10Over 4.5 corners9/10Over 5.5 corners9/10Over 0.5 cards

MVV · last 10 away2.9 corners, 1.3 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners3/10Over 4.5 corners1/10Over 5.5 corners1/10Over 0.5 cards5/10Over 1.5 cards4/10

Bench

S. van der Heijden, S. Timmers, A. Amgar, T. Verheijen, M. Kuipers, D. Asante, Naïm Matoug, O. Zimuangana

NAC Breda – MVVMarch 10, 2023 · Eerste Divisie4-1

MVV – NAC BredaAugust 15, 2022 · Eerste Divisie3-1

Mylan BrouwersOff: Jan Van den Bergh

81'⇄Thijme VerheijenOff: Noa El Hamdaoui

82'⇄Delano AsanteOff: Robert Klaasen

85'⇄Pepijn ReulenOff: Charles-Andreas Brym

85'⇄Fredrik JensenOff: Maximilien Balard

Statistics

44%Possession56%

0.72Expected goals0.28

12Total shots5

7Shots on target0

2Corners5

9Fouls16

3Offsides3

1Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

0Saves6

NAC Breda scored 1.5 and conceded 1.6 per game in their last 10 home matches.

MVV scored 1.0 and conceded 2.2 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

MVV · last 10 away: 5 defeats5/10

NAC Breda: 10 games · MVV: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.6Goals scored (avg)1.2

1.5Goals conceded (avg)2.0

3.1Total goals per gameleague 3.63.2

9/10Over 0.5league %989/10

8/10Over 1.5league %868/10

4/10Over 2.5league %686/10

4/10Over 3.5league %444/10

4/10Over 4.5league %283/10

5/10Both scoreleague %708/10

3/10Clean sheets1/10

3/10Failed to score2/10

NAC Breda: 10 games · MVV: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.1Goals scored (avg)0.9

1.6Goals conceded (avg)2.8

3.7Total goals per gameleague 3.63.7

10/10Over 0.5league %9810/10

9/10Over 1.5league %869/10

7/10Over 2.5league %687/10

6/10Over 3.5league %445/10

3/10Over 4.5league %283/10

8/10Both scoreleague %706/10

2/10Clean sheets1/10

0/10Failed to score3/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%42 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), NAC Breda win 423, 446 end level and MVV win 131. The actual result comes up 423 times in 1000.

0.72 – 0.28 The score the chances deserved (xG): NAC Breda 0.72 – 0.28 MVV.

12 – 5 Shots: NAC Breda 12 – 5 MVV.

7 – 0 Shots on target: NAC Breda 7 – 0 MVV.

2 more numbers for this match in Premium

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 6 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

NAC Breda · Eerste Divisie

MVV · Eerste Divisie

NAC Breda · All games

MVV · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at NAC Breda's ground

Last 6 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match