MVV – Heracles: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Eerste Divisie · Netherlands · Matchday 11

MVVEerste Divisie: Regular season · #9

1-5Sunday, October 18

HeraclesEerste Divisie: Regular season · #1

Match events

MVVHeracles

33'⚽Sil van der WegenAssist: Yael Liesdek
41'⚽Maurice Wrusch
43'⚽Chafik AbbasAssist: Jean-Paul N'djoli
51'⚽Manny Rodriguez BalderaAssist: Chafik Abbas
52'⇄Max HauswirthOff: Thomas Bruns
52'⇄Tristan Van GilstOff: David Tomic

Chances to win

MVV%15

Draw%19

Heracles%66

At a glance

Over 1.5

%68Over 2.5

%60Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%68Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 7.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Heracles win%66

Both score%60

Not both score%40

Under 2.5%32

Draw%19

MVV win%15

Why?

MVV: 3+ goals in 5 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

MVVL0-1L1-4W2-0L1-6L0-4

HeraclesW3-0D2-2W2-0L0-1W3-2

Last 2 meetings

0MVV won

1Draw

1Heracles won

3.0
Goals per game1/2
Over 2.51/2
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

MVV · last 10 at home1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).6/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 0 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Heracles · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).6/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

MVV · last 10 at home4.5 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners

Heracles · last 10 away6.1 corners, 2.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners5/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards8/10

Bench

T. Jansink, L. Zeevalkink, Mario Borac, M. Hauswirth, M. te Wierik, S. Bultman, M. Engels, D. van Kaam, V. Poppler, T. van Gilst, Tarik Hamamioglu, D. van Oorschot

Jean-Paul N'djoliAssist: Chafik Abbas

69'⇄Thijme VerheijenOff: Robert Klaasen

77'⇄Mario EngelsOff: Manny Rodriguez Baldera

77'⇄Mike te WierikOff: Mimeirhel Benita

77'⇄Delano AsanteOff: Yael Liesdek

77'⇄Onesime ZimuanganaOff: Naim Matoug

82'⚽Sven BoulandOwn goal

83'⇄Daniel Van KaamOff: Djevencio van der Kust

Statistics

46%Possession54%

0.58Expected goals2.88

7Total shots23

3Shots on target11

3Corners9

9Fouls12

2Offsides4

1Yellow cards0

0Red cards0

5Saves2

Heracles: 3+ goals in 8 of their last 10 away matches.

MVV scored 0.9 and conceded 1.7 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Heracles scored 1.6 and conceded 2.4 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

MVV · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 5 times5/10

Heracles · last 10 away: 3+ goals 8 times8/10

MVV: 10 games · Heracles: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

0.8Goals scored (avg)2.1

1.8Goals conceded (avg)1.5

2.6Total goals per gameleague 3.63.6

9/10Over 0.5league %9810/10

8/10Over 1.5league %867/10

5/10Over 2.5league %686/10

2/10Over 3.5league %445/10

1/10Over 4.5league %283/10

4/10Both scoreleague %706/10

3/10Clean sheets0/10

4/10Failed to score4/10

MVV: 10 games · Heracles: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

0.9Goals scored (avg)2.4

2.8Goals conceded (avg)0.9

3.7Total goals per gameleague 3.63.3

10/10Over 0.5league %9810/10

9/10Over 1.5league %868/10

7/10Over 2.5league %686/10

5/10Over 3.5league %445/10

3/10Over 4.5league %283/10

6/10Both scoreleague %705/10

1/10Clean sheets3/10

3/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

0.58 – 2.88 The score the chances deserved (xG): MVV 0.58 – 2.88 Heracles.

%84 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), MVV win 49, 110 end level and Heracles win 841. The actual result comes up 841 times in 1000.

7 – 23 Shots: MVV 7 – 23 Heracles.

3 – 12 Shots on target: MVV 3 – 12 Heracles.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 2 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

MVV · Eerste Divisie

Heracles · Eerste Divisie

MVV · All games

Heracles · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Last 2 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match