Udinese – AC Milan: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Serie A · Italy · Matchday 8

UdineseSerie A · #19

0-2Sunday, October 25

AC MilanSerie A · #4

Match events

UdineseAC Milan

6'⚽Christian PulisicAssist: Luka Modrić
39'Gonçalo Ramos
43'Jesper Karlstrom
45'⇄Lennon MillerOff: Jakub Piotrowski
63'⇄Nicolo ZanioloOff: Mergim Vojvoda
64'⇄Juan ArizalaOff: Hassane Kamara

Chances to win

Udinese%22

Draw%26

AC Milan%52

At a glance

Over 1.5

%51Over 2.5

%54Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is AC Milan win.

%52Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 5.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%54

Over 2.5%51

Under 2.5%49

Not both score%46

Draw%26

Udinese win%22

Why?

AC Milan won 4 of their last 10 away matches.

Last 5 matches

UdineseL0-3L1-2L0-1L3-5L1-2

AC MilanL0-3W3-2W4-0D1-1W3-0

Last 15 meetings

4Udinese won

4Draw

7AC Milan won

2.9
Goals per game8/15
Over 2.59/15
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Udinese · last 10 at home1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

AC Milan · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Udinese · last 10 at home5.4 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners

AC Milan · last 10 away3.2 corners, 2.5 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners2/10Over 5.5 corners0/10Over 0.5 cards8/10Over 1.5 cards7/10

Bench

B. Mrozek, D. Padelli, N. Bertola, E. Ebosse, S. Lovrić, Oier Zarraga, N. Zaniolo, J. Arizala, L. Miller, Unai Gómez, G. Vinciati, L. JovanoviÄ

AC Milan · 4-4-1-1

16M. Maignan

5K. De Winter

13S. Bocoum

23F. Tomori

31S. Pavlović

11C. Pulišić

14L. Modrić

20O. Hutchinson

30A. Jashari

33D. Bartesaghi

9Gonçalo Ramos

Bench

L. P. Bouyer, L. Torriani, P. Estupiñán, V. Vladimirov, F. Terracciano, R. Loftus-Cheek, C. Comotto, L. Ossola, A. Cissè, Y. Musah, F. Camarda

Udinese – AC MilanJanuary 20, 2024 · Serie A2-3

AC Milan – UdineseNovember 4, 2023 · Serie A0-1

Udinese – AC MilanMarch 18, 2023 · Serie A3-1

AC Milan – UdineseAugust 13, 2022 · Serie A4-2

AC Milan – UdineseFebruary 25, 2022 · Serie A1-1

Udinese – AC MilanDecember 11, 2021 · Serie A1-1

AC Milan – UdineseMarch 3, 2021 · Serie A1-1

Udinese – AC MilanNovember 1, 2020 · Serie A1-2

AC Milan – UdineseJanuary 19, 2020 · Serie A3-2

Udinese – AC MilanAugust 25, 2019 · Serie A1-0

AC Milan – UdineseApril 2, 2019 · Serie A1-1

73'⇄Ruben Loftus-CheekOff: Omari Hutchinson

73'⇄Yunus MusahOff: Fikayo Tomori

83'⇄Giulio VinciatiOff: Keinan Davis

83'⇄Sandi LovricOff: Jesper Karlstrom

85'⇄Alphadjo CissèOff: Davide Bartesaghi

90+1'⇄Francesco CamardaOff: Gonçalo Ramos

90+1'⇄Christian ComottoOff: Ruben Loftus-Cheek

Statistics

40%Possession60%

0.46Expected goals3.15

12Total shots19

5Shots on target7

5Corners4

11Fouls13

0Offsides1

1Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

5Saves5

Udinese scored 0.7 and conceded 1.0 per game in their last 10 home matches.

AC Milan scored 1.3 and conceded 1.2 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Udinese · last 10 at home: 5 defeats5/10

Udinese: 10 games · AC Milan: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

0.9Goals scored (avg)1.5

1.6Goals conceded (avg)1.1

2.5Total goals per gameleague 3.22.6

10/10Over 0.5league %9810/10

7/10Over 1.5league %869/10

4/10Over 2.5league %615/10

1/10Over 3.5league %362/10

1/10Over 4.5league %220/10

4/10Both scoreleague %595/10

2/10Clean sheets3/10

4/10Failed to score2/10

Udinese: 10 games · AC Milan: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.2Goals scored (avg)2.0

2.3Goals conceded (avg)1.5

3.5Total goals per gameleague 3.23.5

9/10Over 0.5league %9810/10

8/10Over 1.5league %8610/10

7/10Over 2.5league %617/10

3/10Over 3.5league %365/10

3/10Over 4.5league %222/10

6/10Both scoreleague %595/10

1/10Clean sheets3/10

4/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%89 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Udinese win 29, 83 end level and AC Milan win 888. The actual result comes up 888 times in 1000.

0.46 – 3.15 The score the chances deserved (xG): Udinese 0.46 – 3.15 AC Milan.

8.2

Man of the match: C. Pulišić (AC Milan), rated 8.2.

%52 Our model's pre-match chance of an AC Milan win.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 15 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Udinese · Serie A

AC Milan · Serie A

Udinese · All games

AC Milan · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Udinese's ground

Last 15 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match