Torino – Monza: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Serie A · Italy · Matchday 8

TorinoSerie A · #9

3-2Friday, October 23

MonzaSerie A · #16

Match events

TorinoMonza

34'Ardian Ismajli
39'⚽Kian Fitz-JimAssist: Giovanni Simeone
47'⚽Gustavo Varela
51'⇄Gvidas GineitisOff: Rolando Mandragora
61'⚽Rafik BelghaliAssist: Gvidas Gineitis
63'⇄Eddy KouadioOff: Lorenzo Lucchesi
63'

Chances to win

Torino%45

Draw%27

Monza%28

At a glance

Over 1.5

%51Over 2.5

%56Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%56Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%51

Under 2.5%49

Torino win%45

Not both score%44

Monza win%28

Draw%27

Why?

Torino: both sides scored in 7 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

TorinoW3-0W2-1D1-1L0-2W2-1

MonzaW4-0L1-3W2-1L2-3D1-1

Last 8 meetings

4Torino won

3Draw

1Monza won

2.3
Goals per game2/8
Over 2.55/8
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Torino · last 10 at home1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Monza · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Torino · last 10 at home4.2 corners, 0.9 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners4/10Over 5.5 corners

Monza · last 10 away5.4 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners5/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards8/10

Bench

D. Mascardi, L. Siviero, N. Patterson, C. Biraghi, E. Cömert, G. Oristanio, Daniel Bragança, C. Casadei, G. Gineitis, Z. Aboukhlal, P. Pellegri, S. Kulenović, D. Zapata

Monza · 3-4-2-1

1N. Törnqvist

2S. Goglichidze

3L. Lucchesi

7Ricardo Mangas

19S. Birindelli

44A. Carboni

8M. Ondoa

14E. Akinsanmiro

9Gustavo Varela

46Jay Robinson

47Dany Mota

Bench

D. Thiam, A. Strajnar, V. Antov, A. Bakoune, E. Kouadio, L. Colombo, I. Touré, A. Colpani, M. Folorunsho, P. Cutrone, O. Forson, C. Ngonge, E. Zeballos, P. Ciurria, M. Mout

Monza – TorinoNovember 11, 2023 · Serie A

Torino – MonzaMay 7, 2023 · Serie A1-1

Monza – TorinoDecember 28, 2022 · Friendlies Clubs1-4

Monza – TorinoAugust 13, 2022 · Serie A1-2

Michael FolorunshoOff: Foe Ondoa

71'⇄Daniel BragançaOff: Kian Fitz-Jim

71'⇄Sandro KulenovićOff: Giovanni Simeone

71'⇄Nathan PattersonOff: Alessio Cacciamani

72'⚽Nikola Vlašić

79'⇄Patrick CutroneOff: Jay Robinson

79'⇄Cyril NgongeOff: Dany Mota

84'⇄Zakaria AboukhlalOff: Rafik Belghali

85'⇄Mathis MoutOff: Andrea Carboni

90+4'⚽Nathan PattersonOwn goal

Statistics

51%Possession49%

1.26Expected goals0.6

17Total shots7

7Shots on target3

3Corners4

8Fouls4

1Offsides2

1Yellow cards0

0Red cards0

2Saves4

Monza: both sides scored in 7 of their last 10 away matches.

Torino scored 1.6 and conceded 1.3 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Monza scored 1.6 and conceded 1.7 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Torino · last 10 at home: both scored 7 times7/10

Monza · last 10 away: both scored 7 times7/10

Torino: 10 games · Monza: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.4Goals scored (avg)1.7

1.6Goals conceded (avg)1.9

3.0Total goals per gameleague 3.23.6

10/10Over 0.5league %9810/10

8/10Over 1.5league %869/10

7/10Over 2.5league %607/10

4/10Over 3.5league %346/10

1/10Over 4.5league %214/10

7/10Both scoreleague %587/10

1/10Clean sheets3/10

2/10Failed to score0/10

Torino: 10 games · Monza: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.4Goals scored (avg)1.7

1.5Goals conceded (avg)2.2

2.9Total goals per gameleague 3.23.9

10/10Over 0.5league %9810/10

9/10Over 1.5league %869/10

7/10Over 2.5league %608/10

2/10Over 3.5league %347/10

1/10Over 4.5league %215/10

7/10Both scoreleague %588/10

1/10Clean sheets2/10

2/10Failed to score0/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

90+4'

Nathan Patterson decided it in minute 90.

%53 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Torino win 525, 298 end level and Monza win 177. The actual result comes up 525 times in 1000.

1.26 – 0.60 The score the chances deserved (xG): Torino 1.26 – 0.60 Monza.

17 – 7 Shots: Torino 17 – 7 Monza.

2 more numbers for this match in Premium

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 8 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Torino · Serie A

Monza · Serie A

Torino · All games

Monza · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Torino's ground

Last 8 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match