Everton – Newcastle: probabilities, statistics and live score

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EvertonPremier League · #11

3-1Thursday, October 29

NewcastlePremier League · #8

Match events

EvertonNewcastle

34'⚽James GarnerAssist: Hayden Hackney
45'⇄JoelintonOff: Jacob Ramsey
45'⚽Hayden HackneyAssist: Thierno Barry
45'⇄Yoane WissaOff: William Osula
45'⇄Anthony ElangaOff: Harvey Barnes
60'Hayden Hackney

Chances to win

Everton%40

Draw%27

Newcastle%33

At a glance

Over 1.5

%58Over 2.5

%61Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%61Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%58

Under 2.5%42

Everton win%40

Not both score%39

Newcastle win%33

Draw%27

Why?

Everton: both sides scored in 4 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

EvertonL0-2L0-2D2-2W1-0W1-0

NewcastleW2-0L0-1L1-4W2-1L1-4

Last 15 meetings

6Everton won

3Draw

6Newcastle won

2.9
Goals per game9/15
Over 2.59/15
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Everton · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Newcastle · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).6/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 0 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Everton · last 10 at home4.1 corners, 1.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners4/10Over 5.5 corners

Newcastle · last 10 away5.2 corners, 1.9 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners4/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards7/10

Bench

N. Pope, S. Botman, M. Thiaw, Joelinton, A. Bamba, Sean Steur, Y. Wissa, B. Touré, A. Elanga

Everton – NewcastleOctober 5, 2024 · Premier League0-0

Newcastle – EvertonApril 2, 2024 · Premier League1-1

Everton – NewcastleDecember 7, 2023 · Premier League3-0

Everton – NewcastleApril 27, 2023 · Premier League1-4

Newcastle – EvertonOctober 19, 2022 · Premier League1-0

Everton – NewcastleMarch 17, 2022 · Premier League1-0

Newcastle – EvertonFebruary 8, 2022 · Premier League3-1

Everton – NewcastleJanuary 30, 2021 · Premier League0-2

Newcastle – EvertonNovember 1, 2020 · Premier League2-1

Everton – NewcastleJanuary 21, 2020 · Premier League2-2

Newcastle – EvertonDecember 28, 2019 · Premier League1-2

Harrison ArmstrongOff: Hayden Hackney

67'⇄Bazoumana TouréOff: Jacob Murphy

69'⚽Thierno BarryAssist: Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall

74'Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall

76'⇄Brennan JohnsonOff: Tyler Dibling

76'⇄Charly AlcarazOff: Tyrique George

81'Vitaliy Mykolenko

81'⇄Sean SteurOff: Nico González

86'⇄Christian NørgaardOff: Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall

86'⇄Ainsley Maitland-NilesOff: Vitaliy Mykolenko

88'⚽Dan BurnAssist: Joe Willock

Statistics

44%Possession56%

1.88Expected goals2.17

11Total shots28

5Shots on target9

4Corners10

18Fouls15

0Offsides1

5Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

8Saves2

Newcastle: both sides scored in 5 of their last 10 away matches.

Everton scored 1.6 and conceded 1.2 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Newcastle scored 1.1 and conceded 2.1 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Newcastle · last 10 away: both scored 5 times5/10

Everton: 10 games · Newcastle: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.7Goals scored (avg)1.0

1.3Goals conceded (avg)1.7

3.0Total goals per gameleague 3.12.7

10/10Over 0.5league %9810/10

8/10Over 1.5league %818/10

6/10Over 2.5league %564/10

4/10Over 3.5league %383/10

1/10Over 4.5league %212/10

5/10Both scoreleague %565/10

4/10Clean sheets3/10

1/10Failed to score2/10

Everton: 10 games · Newcastle: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.4Goals scored (avg)1.5

1.0Goals conceded (avg)1.7

2.4Total goals per gameleague 3.13.2

9/10Over 0.5league %9810/10

7/10Over 1.5league %818/10

4/10Over 2.5league %566/10

4/10Over 3.5league %385/10

0/10Over 4.5league %213/10

4/10Both scoreleague %566/10

4/10Clean sheets3/10

3/10Failed to score1/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%34 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Everton win 343, 204 end level and Newcastle win 454. The actual result comes up 343 times in 1000.

1.88 – 2.17 The score the chances deserved (xG): Everton 1.88 – 2.17 Newcastle.

11 – 28 Shots: Everton 11 – 28 Newcastle.

4 – 10 Corners: Everton 4 – 10 Newcastle.

2 more numbers for this match in Premium

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 15 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Everton · All games

Newcastle · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Everton's ground

Last 15 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match