Bayern München – Arsenal: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·UEFA Champions League · League phase · Matchday 3

Bayern MünchenBundesliga · #1

2-2Wednesday, October 21

ArsenalPremier League · #2

Match events

Bayern MünchenArsenal

10'⇄Eberechi EzeOff: Bukayo Saka
13'Kai Havertz
25'⚽Eberechi EzeAssist: Martin Odegaard
26'VAREberechi EzeGoal confirmed
35'⚽Alphonso DaviesAssist: Harry Kane
39'Ezri Konsa

Chances to win

Bayern München%41

Draw%26

Arsenal%33

At a glance

Over 1.5

%60Over 2.5

%62Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%60Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%62

Bayern München win%41

Under 2.5%40

Not both score%38

Arsenal win%33

Draw%26

Why?

Bayern München: 3+ goals in 9 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

Bayern MünchenW6-1D3-3D2-2W7-0W2-1

ArsenalW1-0W3-0W2-1L0-3W4-2

Last 13 meetings

6Bayern München won

3Draw

4Arsenal won

3.4
Goals per game7/13
Over 2.59/13
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Bayern München · last 10 at home7/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 5 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Arsenal · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Bayern München · last 10 at home7.4 corners, 1.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/10Over 4.5 corners8/10Over 5.5 corners7/10

Arsenal · last 10 away3.7 corners, 1.5 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners3/10Over 5.5 corners3/10Over 0.5 cards8/10Over 1.5 cards3/10

Bench

S. Ulreich, J. Urbig, J. Tah, N. Brown, H. Ito, S. Boey, Bara Ndiaye, L. Karl, T. Binder, L. Díaz

Arsenal · 4-3-3

1David Raya

6Gabriel Magalhães

12J. Timber

15E. Konsa

33R. Calafiori

8M. Ødegaard

39Bruno Guimarães

41D. Rice

7B. Saka

20N. Madueke

29K. Havertz

Bench

Kepa, I. Meslier, Cristhian Mosquera, B. White, M. Lewis-Skelly, E. Eze, Mikel Merino, Martín Zubimendi, V. Gyökeres, M. Dowman

Bayern Munich – ArsenalJuly 19, 2017 · International Champions Cup1-1

Arsenal – Bayern MunichMarch 7, 2017 · UEFA Champions League1-5

Bayern Munich – ArsenalFebruary 15, 2017 · UEFA Champions League5-1

Bayern Munich – ArsenalNovember 4, 2015 · UEFA Champions League5-1

Arsenal – Bayern MunichOctober 20, 2015 · UEFA Champions League2-0

Bayern Munich – ArsenalMarch 11, 2014 · UEFA Champions League1-1

Arsenal – Bayern MunichFebruary 19, 2014 · UEFA Champions League0-2

Bayern Munich – ArsenalMarch 13, 2013 · UEFA Champions League0-2

Arsenal – Bayern MunichFebruary 19, 2013 · UEFA Champions League1-3

Jonathan TahOff: Kim Min-Jae

61'⚽Harry KanePenalty

68'⇄Luis DíazOff: Ismael Saibari

68'⇄Lennart KarlOff: Serge Gnabry

68'⇄Viktor GyökeresOff: Kai Havertz

69'⇄Myles Lewis-SkellyOff: Bruno Guimarães

82'⚽Declan RiceAssist: Viktor Gyökeres

85'⇄Mikel MerinoOff: Martin Odegaard

85'⇄Nathaniel BrownOff: Alphonso Davies

90'⇄Bara Sapoko NdiayeOff: Luis Díaz

Statistics

42%Possession58%

2.5Expected goals1.71

13Total shots14

5Shots on target5

3Corners5

15Fouls6

2Offsides1

0Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

3Saves3

Arsenal: 3+ goals in 3 of their last 10 away matches.

Bayern München scored 4.3 and conceded 1.2 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Arsenal scored 1.4 and conceded 0.8 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Bayern München · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 9 times9/10

Bayern München: 10 games · Arsenal: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

4.3Goals scored (avg)1.5

1.0Goals conceded (avg)1.0

5.3Total goals per gameleague 3.32.5

10/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

10/10Over 1.5league %837/10

9/10Over 2.5league %604/10

8/10Over 3.5league %422/10

7/10Over 4.5league %261/10

7/10Both scoreleague %575/10

3/10Clean sheets4/10

0/10Failed to score1/10

Bayern München: 10 games · Arsenal: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

3.6Goals scored (avg)1.8

1.1Goals conceded (avg)0.9

4.7Total goals per gameleague 3.32.7

9/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

9/10Over 1.5league %838/10

9/10Over 2.5league %605/10

8/10Over 3.5league %422/10

5/10Over 4.5league %261/10

7/10Both scoreleague %574/10

3/10Clean sheets5/10

1/10Failed to score1/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%18 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Bayern München win 620, 181 end level and Arsenal win 200. The actual result comes up 181 times in 1000.

%26 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

2.55 – 1.42 The score the chances deserved (xG): Bayern München 2.55 – 1.42 Arsenal.

8.2

Man of the match: D. Rice (Arsenal), rated 8.2.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 13 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Bayern München · UEFA Champions League

Arsenal · UEFA Champions League

Bayern München · All games

Arsenal · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Bayern München's ground

Last 13 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match