Ratchaburi – Kashiwa Reysol: probabilities, statistics and live score

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RatchaburiPremier League · #2

0-0Tuesday, October 27

Kashiwa ReysolJ-League · #4

Match events

RatchaburiKashiwa Reysol

45'⇄Nobuteru NakagawaOff: Riki Harakawa
45'⇄Yoshio KoizumiOff: Koya Yuruki
45'⇄Phongsakon SangkasophaOff: Bruno Mendes
51'Ekanit Panya
62'⇄Scott AllardiceOff: Pedro Tanausú Domínguez Placeres
62'⇄Mao HosoyaOff: Shota Fujio

Chances to win

Ratchaburi%15

Draw%19

Kashiwa Reysol%66

At a glance

Over 1.5

%63Over 2.5

%55Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Kashiwa Reysol win.

%66Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 7.Missed

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%63

Both score%55

Not both score%45

Under 2.5%37

Draw%19

Ratchaburi win%15

Why?

Kashiwa Reysol won 7 of their last 10 away matches.

Last 5 matches

RatchaburiL1-2W4-2W2-1L0-1W6-0

Kashiwa ReysolW3-2D0-0L1-3W5-1W4-2

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Ratchaburi · last 10 at home4/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).6/10games led at half-time.Won 5 of the 6 games it led at half-time.

Kashiwa Reysol · last 10 away3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Ratchaburi · last 4 at home6.8 corners, 1.5 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners4/4Over 4.5 corners4/4Over 5.5 corners3/4Over 0.5 cards4/4Over 1.5 cards2/4

Kashiwa Reysol · last 10 away

5.3 corners, 1.5 cards a game

Over 3.5 corners8/10

Over 4.5 corners7/10

Over 5.5 corners4/10

Bench

T. Inukai, D. Sugioka, W. Harada, K. Endo, Y. Koizumi, S. Iwanaga, N. Nakagawa, Y. Kamo, M. Hosoya, Y. Kakita

70'⇄Daiki SugiokaOff: Hiromu Mitsumaru

77'⇄Sidcley Ferreira PereiraOff: Ekanit Panya

77'⇄Sorawit PanthongOff: Thanawat Suengchitthawon

82'⇄Keita EndoOff: Hinata Yamauchi

87'⇄Thossawat LimwannasthianOff: Roque Mesa

Statistics

37%Possession63%

0.14Expected goals1.48

3Total shots14

0Shots on target2

3Corners9

10Fouls12

2Offsides3

3Yellow cards0

0Red cards0

2Saves0

Ratchaburi scored 2.9 and conceded 1.7 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Kashiwa Reysol scored 2.2 and conceded 1.3 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Kashiwa Reysol · last 10 away: 7 wins7/10

Ratchaburi: 10 games · Kashiwa Reysol: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.6Goals scored (avg)2.1

1.6Goals conceded (avg)1.3

4.2Total goals per gameleague 2.93.4

9/10Over 0.5league %948/10

8/10Over 1.5league %787/10

7/10Over 2.5league %556/10

5/10Over 3.5league %295/10

4/10Over 4.5league %164/10

7/10Both scoreleague %596/10

3/10Clean sheets3/10

1/10Failed to score3/10

Ratchaburi: 10 games · Kashiwa Reysol: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.4Goals scored (avg)2.5

1.5Goals conceded (avg)1.5

3.9Total goals per gameleague 2.94.0

9/10Over 0.5league %948/10

7/10Over 1.5league %788/10

6/10Over 2.5league %558/10

4/10Over 3.5league %297/10

4/10Over 4.5league %165/10

6/10Both scoreleague %597/10

3/10Clean sheets3/10

2/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%24 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Ratchaburi win 33, 241 end level and Kashiwa Reysol win 726. The actual result comes up 241 times in 1000.

%19 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

0.14 – 1.48 The score the chances deserved (xG): Ratchaburi 0.14 – 1.48 Kashiwa Reysol.

3 – 14 Shots: Ratchaburi 3 – 14 Kashiwa Reysol.

2 more numbers for this match in Premium

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Ratchaburi · All games

Kashiwa Reysol · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match