Kashiwa Reysol – Nagoya Grampus: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·J1 League · Japan · Matchday 10

Kashiwa ReysolJ-League · #4

1-3Saturday, October 17

Nagoya GrampusJ-League · #11

Match events

Kashiwa ReysolNagoya Grampus

6'⚽Takuya UchidaAssist: Yudai Kimura
13'⇄Kengo NagaiOff: Tomoya Wakahara
16'Yoshio Koizumi
23'⚽Keita EndoAssist: Shota Fujio
36'⚽Yudai KimuraAssist: Kensuke Nagai
45'⇄Yusuke SegawaOff: Hinata Yamauchi

Chances to win

Kashiwa Reysol%54

Draw%23

Nagoya Grampus%22

At a glance

Over 1.5

%60Over 2.5

%59Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%60Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%59

Kashiwa Reysol win%54

Not both score%41

Under 2.5%40

Draw%23

Nagoya Grampus win%22

Why?

Kashiwa Reysol: 3+ goals in 8 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

Kashiwa ReysolW5-1W4-2D3-3W4-0W4-2

Nagoya GrampusD3-3W2-1W3-1L0-1L0-2

Last 6 meetings

2Kashiwa Reysol won

1Draw

3Nagoya Grampus won

2.3
Goals per game3/6
Over 2.53/6
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Kashiwa Reysol · last 10 at home5/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).7/10games led at half-time.Won 7 of the 7 games it led at half-time.

Nagoya Grampus · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).6/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Kashiwa Reysol · last 7 at home4.3 corners, 0.9 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/7Over 4.5 corners2/7Over 5.5 corners2/7Over 0.5 cards

Nagoya Grampus · last 9 away4.2 corners, 1.2 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/9Over 4.5 corners3/9Over 5.5 corners3/9Over 0.5 cards6/9Over 1.5 cards3/9

Bench

A. Pisano, Y. Sato, S. Tokumoto, H. Koda, K. Nakayama, M. Ono, T. Koyamatsu, Mateus, Y. Yamagishi

March 16, 2024 · J1 League

Nagoya Grampus – Kashiwa ReysolDecember 3, 2023 · J1 League1-1

Kashiwa Reysol – Nagoya GrampusMarch 12, 2023 · J1 League0-3

Wataru HaradaOff: Sachiro Toshima

57'⇄Hidemasa KodaOff: Kensuke Nagai

63'⇄Yuya YamagishiOff: Yudai Kimura

68'⇄Kenshin YubaOff: Keita Endo

68'⇄Riki HarakawaOff: Yudai Konishi

73'⇄Mao HosoyaOff: Shota Fujio

77'⇄Masahito OnoOff: Tsukasa Morishima

77'⇄Tomoya KoyamatsuOff: Yuki Nogami

77'⇄Shuhei TokumotoOff: Ryuji Izumi

79'⚽Yuya YamagishiAssist: Hidemasa Koda

86'⇄Yota SatoOff: Tomoki Takamine

Statistics

59%Possession41%

1.03Expected goals1.07

15Total shots9

3Shots on target4

7Corners2

11Fouls10

1Offsides1

2Yellow cards0

0Red cards0

1Saves2

Nagoya Grampus: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 away matches.

Kashiwa Reysol scored 2.8 and conceded 1.5 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Nagoya Grampus scored 1.1 and conceded 2.1 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Kashiwa Reysol · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 8 times8/10

Nagoya Grampus · last 10 away: 3+ goals 7 times7/10

Kashiwa Reysol: 10 games · Nagoya Grampus: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.5Goals scored (avg)1.2

1.6Goals conceded (avg)2.1

4.1Total goals per gameleague 3.03.3

10/10Over 0.5league %949/10

9/10Over 1.5league %808/10

8/10Over 2.5league %577/10

6/10Over 3.5league %364/10

4/10Over 4.5league %182/10

7/10Both scoreleague %576/10

1/10Clean sheets1/10

2/10Failed to score4/10

Kashiwa Reysol: 10 games · Nagoya Grampus: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.5Goals scored (avg)1.5

1.5Goals conceded (avg)1.5

4.0Total goals per gameleague 3.03.0

8/10Over 0.5league %9410/10

8/10Over 1.5league %809/10

8/10Over 2.5league %575/10

7/10Over 3.5league %364/10

5/10Over 4.5league %181/10

7/10Both scoreleague %578/10

3/10Clean sheets0/10

2/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%36 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Kashiwa Reysol win 340, 299 end level and Nagoya Grampus win 361. The actual result comes up 361 times in 1000.

%22 Our model's pre-match chance of an Nagoya Grampus win.

7 – 2 Corners: Kashiwa Reysol 7 – 2 Nagoya Grampus.

1.03 – 1.07 The score the chances deserved (xG): Kashiwa Reysol 1.03 – 1.07 Nagoya Grampus.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 6 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Kashiwa Reysol · J1 League

Nagoya Grampus · J1 League

Kashiwa Reysol · All games

Nagoya Grampus · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Kashiwa Reysol's ground

Last 6 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match