AFC Wimbledon – Arsenal U21: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·EFL Trophy · England · Group South - 6

AFC WimbledonLeague One · #17

1-2Tuesday, October 27

Arsenal U21

Match events

AFC WimbledonArsenal U21

29'Zack Nelson
36'Teshaun Murisa
48'⚽Callum MaycockAssist: Steven Sessegnon
58'⇄Ifeoluwa David IbrahimOff: Teshaun Murisa
58'⇄A. StevensOff: lgor Tyjon
67'⇄Myles HippolyteOff: Callum Maycock

Chances to win

AFC Wimbledon%60

Draw%20

Arsenal U21%19

At a glance

Over 1.5

%67Over 2.5

%63Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%67Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 7.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%63

AFC Wimbledon win%60

Not both score%37

Under 2.5%33

Draw%20

Arsenal U21 win%19

Why?

AFC Wimbledon: 3+ goals in 3 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

AFC WimbledonD1-1L0-3L0-5L1-2D0-0

Arsenal U21W2-1L1-5L1-3L3-4W2-1

Last 1 meetings

1AFC Wimbledon won

0Draw

0Arsenal U21 won

3.0
Goals per game1/1
Over 2.50/1
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

AFC Wimbledon · last 10 at home0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Arsenal U21 · last 5 away0/5games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).3/5games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/5games led at half-time.Won 0 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

AFC Wimbledon · last 10 at home6.5 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners10/10Over 4.5 corners10/10Over 5.5 corners6/10Over 0.5 cards

Arsenal U21 · last 2 away7.5 corners, 1.5 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners1/2Over 4.5 corners1/2Over 5.5 corners1/2Over 0.5 cards2/2Over 1.5 cards1/2

Bench

B. Clarke, J. Ogunnaike, D. Agustien, I. Ibrahim, A. Stevens, E. Mooney

Brayden ClarkeOff: Jaden Dixon

67'⇄Evan MooneyOff: Mylo Bernard

70'⇄Oluwatoyosi Joshua Adewale OgunnaikeOff: Elijah Upson

72'⚽Evan MooneyAssist: Emerson Nwaneri

77'⇄Robin AshamuOff: Aron Sasu

78'Oluwatoyosi Joshua Adewale Ogunnaike

87'⚽Emerson NwaneriAssist: A. Stevens

89'⇄Finlay FraserOff: H. Hedges

Statistics

42%Possession58%

0.96Expected goals2.21

15Total shots22

6Shots on target5

6Corners4

10Fouls6

1Offsides1

1Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

3Saves5

Arsenal U21: 3+ goals in 5 of their last 5 away matches.

AFC Wimbledon scored 0.5 and conceded 1.2 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Arsenal U21 scored 1.8 and conceded 2.8 per game in their last 5 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

AFC Wimbledon: 10 games · Arsenal U21: 3 games · league average in grey

Goals

0.5Goals scored (avg)1.7

1.1Goals conceded (avg)2.3

1.6Total goals per gameleague 3.94.0

7/10Over 0.5league %973/3

5/10Over 1.5league %913/3

3/10Over 2.5league %723/3

1/10Over 3.5league %561/3

0/10Over 4.5league %401/3

3/10Both scoreleague %743/3

5/10Clean sheets0/3

5/10Failed to score0/3

AFC Wimbledon: 10 games · Arsenal U21: 3 games · league average in grey

Goals

0.7Goals scored (avg)1.7

1.4Goals conceded (avg)2.3

2.1Total goals per gameleague 3.94.0

8/10Over 0.5league %973/3

7/10Over 1.5league %913/3

4/10Over 2.5league %723/3

1/10Over 3.5league %561/3

1/10Over 4.5league %401/3

4/10Both scoreleague %743/3

4/10Clean sheets0/3

4/10Failed to score0/3

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%19 Our model's pre-match chance of an Arsenal U21 win.

87'

Emerson Nwaneri decided it in minute 87.

%66 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), AFC Wimbledon win 151, 191 end level and Arsenal U21 win 657. The actual result comes up 657 times in 1000.

0.96 – 2.21 The score the chances deserved (xG): AFC Wimbledon 0.96 – 2.21 Arsenal U21.

1 more numbers for this match in Premium

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 1 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

AFC Wimbledon · EFL Trophy

Arsenal U21 · EFL Trophy

AFC Wimbledon · All games

Arsenal U21 · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Last 1 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match