Plymouth – AFC Wimbledon: probabilities, statistics and live score

PlymouthLeague One · #5

2-1Saturday, October 10

AFC WimbledonLeague One · #18

Match events

PlymouthAFC Wimbledon

16'⚽Jayden StockleyAssist: Callum Maycock
17'⇄Freddie SimmondsOff: Isaac Ogundere
25'⚽Caleb Watts
30'⇄Matthew SorinolaOff: Joe Edwards
65'⇄Xavier AmaechiOff: Oliver Irow
76'⇄Marcus BrowneOff: Callum Maycock

Chances to win

Plymouth%64

Draw%21

AFC Wimbledon%15

At a glance

Over 1.5

%58Over 2.5

%53Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

Last 5 matches

PlymouthD2-2W2-0L0-1W5-1W4-2

AFC WimbledonD0-0D1-1D0-0W1-0W

Last 2 meetings

1Plymouth won

0Draw

1AFC Wimbledon won

3.5
Goals per game2/2
Over 2.52/2
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Plymouth · last 10 at home4/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

AFC Wimbledon · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).6/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Plymouth · last 10 at home6.0 corners, 1.4 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Plymouth win.

%64Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%58

Both score%53

Not both score%47

Under 2.5%42

Draw%21

AFC Wimbledon win%15

Why?

Plymouth · last 10 at home: 5 wins5/10

AFC Wimbledon · last 10 away: 6 defeats6/10

Plymouth won 5 of their last 10 home matches.
Plymouth scored 2.0 and conceded 1.4 per game in their last 10 home matches.
AFC Wimbledon scored 0.6 and conceded 1.7 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Plymouth: 10 games · AFC Wimbledon: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.7Goals scored (avg)0.8

1.2Goals conceded (avg)2.1

2.9Total goals per gameleague 2.82.9

9/10Over 0.5league %9210/10

8/10Over 1.5league %809/10

5/10Over 2.5league %546/10

3/10Over 3.5league %312/10

2/10Over 4.5league %152/10

4/10Both scoreleague %575/10

4/10Clean sheets2/10

3/10Failed to score3/10

Plymouth: 10 games · AFC Wimbledon: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.8Goals scored (avg)0.6

1.4Goals conceded (avg)1.6

3.2Total goals per gameleague 2.82.2

9/10Over 0.5league %928/10

8/10Over 1.5league %807/10

6/10Over 2.5league %545/10

4/10Over 3.5league %311/10

3/10Over 4.5league %151/10

5/10Both scoreleague %575/10

2/10Clean sheets3/10

4/10Failed to score4/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

90+5'

Xavier Amaechi decided it in minute 90.

4 – 9 Corners: Plymouth 4 – 9 AFC Wimbledon.

%55 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Plymouth win 552, 234 end level and AFC Wimbledon win 213. The actual result comes up 552 times in 1000.

1.76 – 1.00 The score the chances deserved (xG): Plymouth 1.76 – 1.00 AFC Wimbledon.

2 more numbers for this match in Premium

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

Last 5 matches

Last 2 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Last 2 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Plymouth · League One

AFC Wimbledon · League One

Plymouth · All games

AFC Wimbledon · All games

Statistics

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match